War at home as tough as war in Iraq

WASHINGTON - U.S. President George Bush is better off being far away from Washington right now. A week ago, he traveled to Latin America; this week, he is in Asia. And meanwhile, on Tuesday night in the American capital, the U.S. president took another blow against the backdrop of the war in Iraq, when the Senate voted to demand regular updates from the White House on progress in Iraq until all U.S. troops are withdrawn.

A survey published yesterday by USA Today compared the rate of support for the war in Iraq to that for the Vietnam War as recorded in the spring of 1970, and found much similarity - 54 percent of Americans believe the war in Iraq was a mistake, while in 1970, 56 percent of Americans believed the Vietnam War was a mistake.

The comparison is somewhat annoying - a different period, a war of a different kind. Nevertheless, when it comes to surveys, it's not just the numbers that talk: just like in 1970, the domino theory is the tool that is being used to describe the dangers of Communism (then) and Islamic fundamentalism (now).

However, the exact same theory can serve as a tool to analyze U.S. politics. The first domino tile falls in the "field," when the military encounters insurmountable obstacles; the second tile is the sinking public support; and the third fell on Tuesday night with the vote in the Senate: 2006, ruled the U.S. lawmakers, will be the year in which the Iraqis "must" take hold of the reins of power in their country.

The decision to compel the White House to report on progress in the effort to rehabilitate Iraq every three months may be a degrading one for the president; but it is much better for the administration than the proposal rejected the day before that asked the president for a timetable for a withdrawal.

The vote in the Senate is evidence that the U.S. lawmakers are on edge, and are expected to become even more so as mid-term elections draw nearer. If the public does not support the war, they will want to show that they are listening - a promise of more difficulties and humiliations for the administration.

Furthermore, the vote also reignites the argument over the question of the power of the president versus that of the Senate, when it comes to the shaping of U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. lawmakers, who are not happy with the results of the war, are renewing their interest in powers they have lost over the years.

The Senate is dissatisfied with the performance of the administration, and is reminding the president that it, too, has something to say on the subject.

The question that remains to be answered is whether Bush's slump in public support can be stopped. This is a difficult question to answer because there are no precedents to work on. During the parallel period of their second terms in office, former presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were a lot better off than Bush is at present, with 58 percent and 61 percent support respectively. At their low points, Reagan and Clinton fell to 43 percent and 54 percent support respectively - numbers that Bush would be happy to boast at present.

This week, Bush accused the Democrats of playing "politics games" with regard to the war in Iraq. This, of course, is true, but it is doubtful that he would have acted otherwise if the shoe was on the other foot. Bush's problem is that the political games have started in his own party too.

Hence, as it has happened in the past on more than one occasion, the far right and far left are coming to the same conclusion, and could drag both parties to the edge out of fear of the elections - bad news for Bush, bad news for his party, and bad news in the opinion of most of the analysts of the war in Iraq. They all foresee a process that undermines America's chances of success - and cannot come to the rescue.