U.S. intel: No chance for Iran bomb before 2013

Iran will be unable to produce weapons-grade enriched uranium in sufficient quantities to produce an atomic weapon before 2013, according to U.S. National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair.

A document supplied by Blair to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence in April was released for publication by the Federation of American Scientists, which obtained the paper through the Freedom of Information Act.

The assessment does not reflect any significant contradiction between the American and Israeli intelligence assessments on Iran's nuclear program.

Overall, the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies providing data for the document suggest that between 2010 and 2015 Iran will be in a position to produce a nuclear bomb.

The most skeptical assessment is by the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research, which holds that Iran will not be nuclear capable before 2013.

In the document, Blair makes the distinction between the practical capability of building a nuclear device versus the political decision by Iran's leaders to actually proceed with building a bomb.

Blair questions whether Iran's leaders will proceed with manufacturing a bomb as long as international pressure remains in place on Tehran.

The document is comprised of a series of questions and answers. In addition to the information on Iran's nuclear ambitions, the document assesses Russian military capabilities.

Quoting Russian assessments, Blair points out that the Iranians will not be able to produce a nuclear weapon before 2013 because of "technical problems."

The range offered by the U.S. intelligence agencies on the time Iran needs to be nuclear capable does not differ substantially from those offered by Israel's intelligence community.

Mossad head Meir Dagan said at a meeting of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in June that Iran will be able to produce a bomb in 2014.

The various assessments are based on a lack of definitive information on the Iranian nuclear program by Western intelligence agencies. In addition, various senior officials have chosen to emphasize different points of development in Iran's nuclear capabilities.

The bottom line is that Iran will be able to detonate a nuclear device in the near future, but has a way to go before it can produce a bomb that can be mounted on a ballistic missile capable of striking Israel.