U.S. Elections / No election upset for Sharon

Most Israeli officials involved in Israel's relationship with the United States assumed over the past few months that President George W. Bush would beat his challenger, Sen. John F. Kerry, in the elections and win a second term in the White House.

The close race and the tie in the polls did not change their views, even if they were more cautious in their statements, wrapping comments in "it's difficult to tell what will happen."

That assessment corresponds to the expectation and the hope in official Israel that Bush wins and maintains his consistent support for Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

The prime minister was diligent about saying he does not intervene in American elections, but his attitudes to the candidates were not balanced. In his last visit to the U.S., on April 14, he was publicly stroked by Bush and dodged a meeting with Kerry. He did grant Kerry's Jewish brother Cameron Kerry a brief meeting, during the summer.

Sharon has been invited to the U.S. in two weeks' time for the General Assembly of Jewish federations in Cleveland, Ohio, but he will probably stay home. His trip was in doubt from the start and might be canceled because of Yasser Arafat's illness, and the political and security problems at home.

Neither Bush nor Kerry will want to open his international diplomatic contacts by meeting the controversial Israeli prime minister - and without a presidential meeting, there's not much point to a Sharon trip.

The two candidates presented a more or less uniform position on Israel during their campaigns. Kerry supported the disengagement and the understandings Sharon and Bush reached, and, like the president, expressed grave reservations about Arafat.

The working assumption in Jerusalem is that Bush, if re-elected, will be more aggressive in his demand that Sharon follow through on the promise to evacuate the outposts and limit construction in the settlements. Kerry, if elected, is expected to send an envoy to the region and to show that he is acting to resuscitate the peace process after four years of paralysis.

Kerry is committed to improving relations with the Europeans, who are demanding in exchange that Israel accelerate its exit from the territories.

On Bush's side, as well, there are signs of a change in policy after the elections. Secretary of State Colin Powell told Egyptian TV last week that the disengagement plan should lead to renewal of negotiations on the basis of the road map, "further removal of settlements in the West Bank and solutions to the final status issues." Powell has resumed referring to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a top priority for the administration.

As far as Sharon is concerned, the main danger is a "back to Camp David" approach, and a renewed American effort to resume final status negotiations, meaning talk of a deep withdrawal form the West Bank, dividing Jerusalem between Israel and Palestine and a solution to the refugee problem. If Arafat dies, pressure will increase for Sharon to talk to the "partner" who replaces him.

Sharon is not worried. He believes the letter he has from Bush, affirmed by a large majority in Congress, immunizes him from any new initiatives that are not the road map. Sharon has two lines of defense. Even if Arafat passes away, Israel will refuse to engage in political negotiations until the first stage of the road map is implemented: reforms and a war against terror. Bush and Kerry are both firmly against the terror so they will not be giving away any discounts to the Palestinians. Only if the PA changes will the road map come back to life and the road paved to a Palestinian state. That was Sharon's message yesterday in response to the terror attack in Tel Aviv.

His other line of defense is the disengagement plan. As long as preparations are underway to pull out of Gaza and the northern West Bank, the U.S. will refrain from pressure for further withdrawals and won't raise the thorny final status issues.

Sharon will justifiably argue that he's having enough difficulty getting the disengagement approved, so there's no point in raising other issues.