The Shalit talks / Hamas will keep pushing Israel

The reports in the Arab media about Hamas' possible answer to German mediator Gerhard Conrad on the deal to release captive soldier Gilad Shalit range from a categorical no to "yes, but."

One thing is clear. A senior Hamas delegation from the Gaza Strip, headed by Mahmoud Al-Zahar, completed its consultations in Damascus yesterday and moved on to Cairo, where it is expected to meet with Conrad, who spent Christmas in Germany.

It is more likely that Hamas, like Israel, is reluctant to sabotage the deal at this relatively advanced stage. To avoid being blamed for foiling the deal, Hamas may convey a mixed message - hopes and goodwill for an agreement, while insisting on conditions Israel is hardly likely to accept.

The London-based Arabic-language newspaper Al-Hayat reported yesterday that the main disagreement between the sides was Israel's refusal to release 22 "heavy" prisoners from Hamas' list of 450 - 15 from the West Bank and seven from Gaza. This is similar to the figures leaked from the Israeli side. Another key question pertains to the large number of West Bank prisoners that Israel wants expelled. Palestinian sources say they number 123, 97 of whom would be sent to Gaza, 23 to Qatar and three to Europe.

It appears that six of Israel's seven senior government ministers supported the last Israeli proposal to settle the Shalit deal, while Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman objected, suggesting that the negotiations be stopped immediately. The seven all believed that Israel should make it clear to Hamas that it would go no further than its last proposal.

According to reports from Cairo, Hamas did not understand this message. The gap between the positions is still large and Hamas believes it can pressure the Israeli leadership to agree to more concessions, in view of the public support for the deal.

Israel has additional levers to sway the negotiations. Hagai Hadas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's envoy to the talks, is a former Mossad agent. His expertise in special operations was supposed to help in the talks. Judging by some reports in the Arab media, things may already be happening.

Two dramatic events took place last week. On Saturday a booby-trapped car belonging to a senior Hamas official exploded in Beirut and two junior activists were killed. On Wednesday the Hamas newspaper reported that the organization had caught a group of Palestinian collaborators who tried to abduct a senior Hamas official in Gaza to squeeze him for information about where Shalit was being held.

It's hard to verify these reports, which Israel refrained from commenting on. If there is anything to them, this could be Israel's way of conveying to Hamas that it, too, will have to pay a price for holding up the Shalit deal any further.

The zigzag in the negotiations coincides with the recent rise of violent incidents in the West Bank after a long period of relative calm, from stone throwing and firebombs to the shooting attack that murdered Rabbi Meir Hai about a week ago.

The tension between the Palestinians and settlers is rising also due to the government's construction freeze in the settlements and radical right-wing rioting in Palestinian villages in retaliation. The High Court of Justice's decision this week to open to Palestinians Route 443 from Jerusalem to Modi'in is also contributing to the tension.

In addition, Hamas is threatening to renew terror attacks from the West Bank and to capture more soldiers unless Israel agrees to its demands in the Shalit deal.