The Shalit Deal / Don't expect tangibles just yet

The plethora of reports during the past few weeks - on the efforts to reconcile rival Palestinian factions, the possibility of a long-term cease-fire in the Gaza Strip and possible progress in the talks for the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit - may point toward an acceleration in the exchanges, but there are still no agreements. What these efforts reflect is increased international involvement, mostly by the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama and the Egyptian regime, in an effort to secure gains on the Israeli-Paelstinian track. However, it will probably still be a long way before tangible achievements are at hand, and this is especially true with regard to Gilad Shalit.

The recent outbreak of optimism dates back to last Thursday, when a European source close to the negotiations promised rapid progress on securing Shalit's release. However, these kind of prognoses were made in the past, especially as the tenure of former prime minister Ehud Olmert neared its end, and reports emerged that he had been willing to make unusually generous concessions to Hamas in exchange for the abducted soldier.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak cooled things down during yesterday's cabinet meeting, denying reports that a Shalit deal was imminent. Barak said the reports were damaging the talks. Interesting. His reasoning probably reflects the leadership's concerns about raising the Shalit family's expectations of a speedy deal.

What, then, is actually happening in the efforts to free Shalit? The new negotiator, Hagai Hadas, will soon visit Cairo. The Egyptians are disseminating optimistic assessments, hoping this will increase an agreement's chances for success. The Americans, too, are becoming increasingly involved - both on the official track (through Special Envoy George Mitchell) and on the unofficial one (through former president Jimmy Carter).

In addition, it should not be forgotten that all involved parties are engaged in deceit and that there is significant movement behind the scenes. Yet, it is doubtful that Hamas will agree to transfer Shalit to Egypt as part of any deal's first stage - say, as part of a reconciliation deal with Fatah - without securing the release from Israeli jails of "serious" prisoners on its list.

Meanwhile, talks between Fatah and Hamas resumed yesterday in Cairo. A senior Fatah official said the chances of the dialogue being successful are "50-50." Still, significant differences remain between the two factions and it is doubtful whether these can be bridged during two or three days of talks.

A senior Palestinian Authority official has told Haaretz that the key to the success of the Cairo talks lies in Damascus. Syrian pressure on Hamas may result in an accord. Will Syria contribute to the Egyptian effort? It depends on what the U.S. would be willing to give it in return.

But it is Hamas' position that still remains the great unknown. Egypt would like the Islamic group to relinquish its administration of Gaza and the Strip's reconstruction to a joint committee answerable to PA President Mahmoud Abbas. This means giving up the control and de facto autonomy Hamas has wielded over Gaza.

Meanwhile, several smaller Palestinian factions, like the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, are raising obstacles of their own, refusing Egypt's proposal on the future of Palestinian elections, which they fear will leave them outside parliament. Another issue concerns the numerous armed militias and how both Hamas and Fatah gunmen will coexist under a joint security apparatus.