The nuclear lever

Notwithstanding statements by the Pentagon's top brass to the contrary, it looks like the intelligence communities of the United States, Japan, and South Korea were once again caught off guard by yesterday's North Korean subterranean nuclear test. They were surprised first back in October 2006, when Pyongyang carried out a failed test. Now they are still waiting for the experts to determine the strength of the latest blast.

However, even when these details clear up, a number of facts will remain unchanged. North Korea continues to ignore the international community and is not impressed by the demands of the great powers, including its neighbor, China. North Korea is a full fledged nuclear state: it has the fissile materials, plutonium and probably enriched uranium, and the ability to build a simple nuclear device. Nonetheless, it is still a long way from being able to place a nuclear warhead on a missile.

North Korea is using its nuclear capabilities as leverage to try and gain American guarantees that would ensure the survival of Kim Jong-il's regime. In the cat and mouse game, every time it appears that an agreement is close between North Korea and the five nations involved in talks with Pyongyang - China, the U.S., Japan, Russia and South Korea - out comes another charge from the Communist regime which scuttles all progress.

The current nuclear test comes at a time of growing tension with the new U.S. administration, which seeks to formulate a more moderate approach than that of George Bush. North Korea arrested two foreign journalists and launched a long -range ballistic missile on April 5 - which failed. There is also the uncertainty over who will succeed Kim, whose health is deteriorating.

In theory there are similarities between the Iranian and North Korean nuclear crises, but the difference is clear. In the case of the North Koreans the nuclear capability is a way of ensuring the preservation of the regime, U.S. recognition of its sovereignty and a way to gain economic aid. If it gains these, Pyongyang may agree to disarm.

Iran, however, sees nuclear capability as a goal in and of itself, and will not give up on it.