Tension with Syria can turn into war in an instant
A crisis has erupted suddenly between Israel and Syria at a time when the status quo seemed quite stable.
By Aluf Benn Tags: Israel news Avigdor LiebermanAbout three weeks ago the New York Times published a list of recommended tourist sites for 2010. Damascus came in seventh and the writer wondered whether the Syrian capital was the "new Marrakesh." Ancient buildings in the Syrian capital are turning into boutique hotels, trying to emulate the popular Moroccan city, he wrote. The Old Vine Hotel, a luxurious 17th-century, nine-bedroom boutique hotel, a two-minute walk from the Grand Mosque of the Umayyads, is offering a room for 140 euros a night. Cheaper than Eilat.
Damascus' appearance on the American tourist map and the imminent appointment of a U.S. ambassador there reflect a rapprochement between Bashar Assad's regime and the United States, after years of tension and distance. Assad has told The New Yorker that he has renewed intelligence-sharing efforts with the United States and Britain against terror. U.S. envoy George Mitchell relayed President Barack Obama's special request for intelligence assistance, and the Syrian leader consented. He was rewarded immediately with the announcement of the American ambassador's return.
All these signs show that Assad is forging closer ties with the United States without going "via Jerusalem" and without renouncing Syria's strategic alliance with Iran. He managed to stick to his guns without having to shake an Israeli hand or bend his positions on the peace process. On the contrary, Assad told The New Yorker's Seymour Hersh that the intelligence sharing would depend on the progress in the peace talks.
In recent months everything has appeared quiet on both sides of the Syria-Israel border. The two countries exchanged noncommittal messages about their desire for peace, and the status quo seemed as stable as ever. Israel does not want to withdraw from the Golan Heights and Syria does not want to risk war. The international community is concerned about the Palestinians while ignoring the Syrian track.
But suddenly a crisis has erupted. Syrian and Israeli officials exchanged declarations about war and cranked up the threats. The defense minister warned that if peace with Syria is not achieved, Israel will be embroiled in an unnecessary war. The Syrian foreign minister threatened to strike Israeli cities. His Israeli counterpart threatened to topple Assad's regime.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried, as usual, to appease both ministers and released a lukewarm response. "Israel wants peace without preconditions," he said to appease Ehud Barak, and "Israel will react resolutely and firmly to any threat," to appease Avigdor Lieberman.
The Six-Day War erupted after the chief of staff at the time, Yitzhak Rabin, threatened to harm the Syrian regime for supporting Fatah's sabotage acts. A covert direct threat by the MI chief to foreign military attaches apparently lit the spark that led to war.
Lieberman's statement sounded like a return of that dangerous escapade. It broke the defense establishment's strict rule not to annoy Assad or humiliate him.
The recent murder of a Hamas official in Dubai, which was attributed to Israel, the barrel bombs off Israel's southern beaches, the recent test launching of an Iranian missile and the mutual threats with Syria have undermined the past year's quiet. The defense establishment is warning of seasonal tension in the north ahead of the anniversary of the assassination of Hezbollah's Imad Mughniyeh.
These can be seen as routine developments in Israel's cold war with Iran and Syria - the arms race, covert activity and making allies. But experience in the Middle East shows that calm can turn into tension and tension can turn into war in an instant. So both sides' leaders must talk and act with extra caution.
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"only N and L want war" "they think that WAR will benefit them" Yes, that is true so did Ehud barak and Tzipi livni, thought that a war will boost their chance to win POER in the G Election. THEY LOSS.
Syria constantly used its press (at the behest of Moscow) to call Nassar and Hussein cowards for not confronting the "west" and Israel. Also, Syria was constantly shelling the Galilee. Meanwhile, Syria was the most cowardly of the lot, hiding behind Moscow's skirts. It is doubtful Nassar would have re-militarized the Sinai and kicked out the U.N., and closed the Gulf of Aqaba to Israeli shipping, if it hadn't been egged on by Syria. As it is, Nassar was bogged down in Yemen's war and didn't need the '67 war at all.
Your memory of what you read about the 1967 war from a safe distance is not accurate. The debate in Israel was about whether a self-defence operation was possible, not whether it was necessary. Many believed that the international community would not allow Israel to defend itself and some also hoped that the USA and other countries would keep their promise to open the Straits of Tiran with their own ships. By 5 June 1967 it was clear that no other country would lift a finger to help Israel while a Soviet-backed Arab invasion was ready and expected to begin at any moment. As long as the oil supply through the Straits of Tiran remained closed Israel's capacity to resist the second Holocaust was draining away by the hour. That is why for the first time in Israeli history there was total unanimity in support of the decision taken by the national unity coalition government.
This malevolant war like rhetoric is no longer applicable when assessing relation with Syria.Most beneficial to both sides is to ease tentions and peacefully resolve differences through negotiation rather than confrontation.It is for Israel's interest to drop its militaristic brahaha and move to more appealing stance so that Arabs can accept Israel as an integral part of the region.The days when Israel use to terrify the Arabs have gone and a new perception is firmly ingrained among the new Arab generation.So, if war is the only talent Israel has, then there will be no room for such a monster among us.
Neither the military or the politicians seriously believe these comments about firing missiles into Israeli cities were just more of the same hot air from Assad we have been hearing for years. Assad knows full well that what Liberman said is true if he fires even 1 missile it will lead to the deaths of alot of Syrian soldiers and the end of his regime. Assad has a different view on peace for everyday of the week SUNDAY - he is Ghandi calling for global peace MONDAY - he says I support terror and am proud of it TUESDAY - he threatens to invade Israel and take what he wants by force unless Israel hands it over without a fight. WEDNESDAY - he is calling on Obama to pressure Israel into agreeing to his terms. THURSDAY - he threatens to fire missiles into Israeli cities FRIDAY - he is Ghandi again SATURDAY - he rests and dreams about wiping Israel off the map and create a greater Syria which what was Israel before he destroyed it is now part of.
I can remember Israel 40 years ago. Every spring the question arose, would there be a war with Egypt? Would there be a war with Syria? This was not a question without basis until AFTER the Yom Kippur War. The eventually peace with Egypt occurred and then the only paranoid question was 'would war with Syria' happen this year. After Thirty-five years the answer would be obvious to any but the most deluded. No. So why is there any question now? Because the Netanyahu government of Israel wants the question to be asked. Because IT has driven the situation to the point where war is imminent. No other government in the region wants war. Only Netanyahu and Lieberman want war. Not even Israelis want war. The ONLY people in the region who think ANYONE might benefit from a war are Netanyahu and Lieberman. Will war benefit Israel? There is no question that Bibi and Avigdor think war will benefit them. But who else could it benefit? No one.
"The politicians aren`t religious people! If they were religious, they would try peace!" - Gemma Menigatti Politicians are not religious because if they were they would not be politicians. Politicians do not try peace because if they did there would be little need for politicians. Politicians are people who make their livelihood from creating strife. And that is why people die in astounding numbers world wide. Because only the death of people can justify the continued existence of men like Netanyahu, Lieberman and Meschal. So long as Israelis and Palestinians are dying, they are winning.
I was a great fan and friend of Israel in the spring of 1967. I am still a great friend and fan - if a very disappointed one - of Israel today. But i most intensely remember those days when I was in high school, reading Aviation Week and paying attention to what was happening. I do not think I am wrong. I remember how divided the Israeli government was. Many thought the war unnecessary, and others thought it was the only option. And I remember how the question came down to whether Israel could afford to stay mobilized without striking or not. The ability of Israeli shipping - the ship was embargoed in Miami because of inability to pay fees - was never the actual fact which caused the war. The FACT was that Israel could not stay on a status of high alert forever. Either a war had to be, or a stand down had to occur. The nation could not stand on high alert for another month. So Eschkol did what he had to do.
Maureen Ann, why do I try to purchase Tadiran batteries instead of others? Do you have a clue about Israel's economy or it's import/export balance? Your hatred for Israel is just as sick and depraved as the attitude of those who never question what it does. Do you, or they, have a clue what I am talking about?
"Talk is talk. means nothing. When Nasser mad the move to close the shipping lanes that was THE act of war." - Arnqjd Nope. That was not what happened. The Israeli government had intense discussions which included Arik Sharon drawing his pistol and threatening Eshkol. Perhaps that story is true. Under ANY account of the beginning of the Six Day War, the choice of war or no war was decided by Israel and the initiation of the war was a triumphant strike against first Egypt and then Syria. Why folks now find it NECESSARY to lie about the Six Day War eludes me. The events are burned into my memory. I was not only a witness, but an advocate for Israel. I do not remember any denial a month after the war by Israel of what it did or why. I find the lies about what happened then, now, most curious. If one needs to lie about the past, then one needs to lie about the present. Otherwise there is no need to lie.
Your claims about the Six Day war are obviously researched but they are not honest. The Soviet disinformtion to which you refer was that Israeli forces were assembling to attack Syria(The Egyptian border was still patrolled by a UN peacekeeping force so there was no chance anyone would believe the lie that Israel was interested in war with Egypt). Nasser's closure of the Straits of Tiran was not a "statement" but an act of war as was clearly understood by everyone at the time. It was Egypt's expulsion of the United Nations Peace Keeping force that made an Israeli preemptive self-defence operation urgent as well as necessary. The rest is history but those of us who care about the truth will never forget it. Tell your lies somewhere else but not in an Israeli newspaper.
Do you seriously expect anyone with two brain cells to rub together to believe your claim that Nasser went to war because he wanted to help Syria? Nasser was President of Egypt, not Syria. You know that, right? You did not provide any evidence or even a single example of Israeli threats to Syria but suppose they existed, what does that have to do with Egypt? Egypt went to war because the President of Egypt thought it was in his or his country's interest. He was armed to the teeth with the latest Russian weapons and imagined that Israel had lost the will to fight in self-defence. That was a big mistake but one which the Syrians and Jordanians also made. Anyone else who makes the same mistake will regret it at least as much.
Y: "Closing the Straits of Tiran is a casus belli" Indeed true. Now, prove to me that the Straits of Tiran was actually closed to Israeli shipping. After all, the Cuban Missile Crisis clearly established that ANNOUNCING a blockade was not enough to create a "casus belli". The US Navy had to actually stop a USSR cargo ship before the Ruskies could claim a casus belli for war. They never did, and so there was no war. So, Yonotan, you claim that Nasser CLOSED the strait of Tiran. Show me your proof, please: name the Israeli cargo ship that was stopped and boarded by the Egyptian navy....
A: "Talk is talk. means nothing." Indeed true! An announcement that you are closing shipping lanes where they enter Egyptian waters is merely TALK. It isn't an ACT until you actually stop some ships (mull the Cuban Missile Crisis if you don't believe me). THAT'S when a country has it's casus belli, not before. A: "When Nasser mad the move to close the shipping lanes that was THE act of war." And when, exactly, did he MOVE to close the shipping lane? You know, in constrast to merely ANNOUNCING it? When, exactly, was that Israeli ship stopped by an Egyptian patrol boat? After all, Kennedy definitely ordered US destroyers to form a blockade of Cuba, but not one of those vessels ever stopped any ships. Crisis averted, in that case. Israel, or course, used the mere ANNOUNCEMENT of a closure as an excuse to attack. More warongering that the USSR: that's a pretty impressive effort, Arnold.
"Lebanon, Turkey, Iran, Syria all must take a slice of the tourism economy pie, leaving Israel a smaller portion." [MA of B] Tourists wanting to see Arabs can go to London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Detroit. There is only one Israel, and is the only ME spot worth the trip.
Lebanon, Turkey, Iran, Syria all must take a slice of the tourism economy pie, leaving Israel a smaller portion... how did Israel's tourism/economy improve following the invasion and bombing of Iraq's historical and priceless archaeological tourist attractions?
#1 The politicians aren't religious people! If they were religious, they would try peace!
The economiv costs of keeping the reserves mobilized had nothing to do with it. Moreover, you make the prelude to the war sound as if there were mutual provocations. I was in Israel then, red all the newspapers (imcluding the Communist rag Kol Ha-Am), and there was nothing of what you say. Stop rewriting history.
Another chicken hawk advocating war in the middle east from the safety of the USA. Whatever your hallucinations about the ease and outcome of your proposed war, I can guarantee that too many innocent Israelis and Syrians will lose their lives and livelihoods,hate will rule the day and the day after, and only peace will be the peace of the grave. Is that your true agenda?
Israel warned Egypt that closing the straits was an act of war, as was Nasser's dismissing UN troops. what history book is mark lincoln reading
The guy is just frustrated that he is out of the loop on all of Israel foreign policy issues. He has no part in peace process, not in contact with the US, EU or the Pals, has no say on Turkey, in short he is strictly political and symbolic. Let him bark, he is harmless.
Talk is talk. means nothing. When Nasser mad the move to close the shipping lanes that was THE act of war.
You are absolutely correct and Obama has bought into it hook line and sucker!
The Six Day War was triggered by Israel launching a breathtakingly successful attack upon Egypt and Syria. This was something Israel was very proud of accomplishing at the time. Why people feel compelled to lie about it now is most curious. The war's origin was in Soviet disinformation. Fraudulent intel given Egypt and Syria that Israel was planning to attack them. Given the history of the Sinai war in 1956 the information seemed credible. Both Egypt and Syria ratcheted up tensions with statements. Israel responded in kind. The closure of the Straits of Tiran was just part of the pattern of antagonistic behavior on all sides. Israel mobilized it's reserves. Prime Minister Levi Eshkol knew Israel could not stay mobilized for a long period because of economic reasons and was persuaded to order a war he did not really want. The 'trigger' was the cost to the economy of maintaining a high level mobilization of the IDF.
... snarling at other countries, and studying the response. An absence of snarl-back is considered weakness, and something to be examined further for possible exploitation. This may sound primitive to the Western ear, and it is. But it is a cultural icon that is not going to go away, any more than a keffiyeh or hijab. Benn is correct that war can break out in an instant, but there is no need to interpret every routine diplomatic snarl as a crisis. Israel is Western in outlook and inclination. But its location dictates protocol.
All the problemes with Syria, it can be done in almost notime at all, JUST TRUST IT TO LIEBERMAN AND HIS RIGHT HAND. and above all don't listen to all those leftist librals who the descendant and mora hairs of the jewish ISHUV and who created Israel as an independant state. (without the help of the hareddis of all sorts and before the arrival of ex soviet immigrants.
you people are the worst enemy of israel such a reasoning as yourself will lead israel to the end remmeber just this whole arabs took a lesson from six days wars and if a war start between syria and israel that would give all opportunıty to all states in the region to completley destroy israel instantly before any help could come dont rely on usa know your facts and act wisely bullyıng war mongering wıll be the beginning of end... peace... for... everyone
Actually, Nasser's actions were a response to Israeli threats against Syria. He was signalling that Egypt would not allow Israel to attack Syria without starting a major war.
The status quo is not OK mister. Hizb being armed through the teeth when Syria states her protection to terror groups, the author need a dose of reality.
A war between the two countries will not profit any of them. Thus it will not happen. Assad has is in risk to lose his power to Islamsts( he is not a Muslem in their eyes). Israel does not need this war because the Golan Heights are anyway under its control. THUS LEFTISTS SHOULD STOP SCARING PEOPLE. (first they should stop taking money form foreign powers).
Just as Israel expects someone to avenge the death of a martyr, they turn up the heat to send a message that any spark could lead to war.
on the outcome of a war with Syria. Syria has lots of missiles pointed at Israel and missiles trump airplanes. Also keep in mind that Syria has over three times the population of Israel, so if they are boxed in, they could kill a lot of Israelis in hand to hand combat. The world is awash in AK47s so it would not be hard for Syria to arm enough people to flood over the border and kill lots of Israelis. In case you haven't thought about it, it is **NOT** 1967 anymore. Your enemies are better equipped and better trained and they have learned a lot from defeating the US in Iraq and Afghanistan and have no delusions, the US lost in Iraq and Afghanistan. Israel is **NOT** invisible and can lose its last war. Don't be so sure of winning against Syria. As Sun Tzu points out those that underestimate their enemies are fools.
ISRAEL THREATENS SYRIA + SYRIA THREATEN ISRAEL = WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL AND LEBANON!! YOU ALL KNOW THAT!
An excellent example of a superficial article about a complex issue pretending to be sophisticated
According to Aluf Benn,Israel must be quiet and not reply to any threat or humilition from the Dictator in Damascus in order to not provoke the next war . I don't know if being obsequious will stop the war hungry Assad's attack when he thinks that he is able and ready .
for instigating the Six Day War.
Only in your mind did The 6 day war start over something Rabin said to Syria. And like Jeff B says, you probably believe in Tooth Fairies too. The Syrian foreign minister completely misunderstood what Barak said. It wasn't a threat to Syria, it was a warning to Israel. It will take a lot more than that to start a war so simmer down and take a strong dose of reality.
With rapid budget cuts, an illiterate army, outdated tanks, and obsolete aircraft Syria will be committing both political and economic suicide by going to war with Israel. They're only real hope of hurting Israel is to continue supporting Hezbollah and avoid a conventional war with its much more better equipped foe.
Is it really possible that Aluf Benn believes the 6 Day War happened because of something Rabin said to Syria? Perhaps he also believes in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy. Perhaps the self-delusion of those on the "everything is Israel's fault" left has no bounds. It's time for readers of this newspaper to say, "enough with this drivel." We have a people and a state to save and it's time to start acting like adults who believe in reality.
Israel is capable of easily defeating Syria and taking more land from them if this is needed to provide additional security for Israel. Syria should be presented with an ultimatum from Israel: Either stop dealing in terrorism or else! Syria is relying on World Opinion and pressure in negotiating with Israel. It won't get them the Golan but it may get them into another war that they can't handle.
This article gives a misleading account of the background to the Six Day war. It was triggered primarily by the actions of President Nasser of Egypt when he closed the Straits of Tiran to Israeli ships, expelled UN peacekeeping forces from Sinai and explicitly announced that his country would wage war to destroy Israel. This had nothing to do with Syria but was a response to Soviet backing for the anti-Jewish cause and also to a certain perception in the Arab world that Israelis had lost the will to fight in self-defence. Unfortunately it was necessary to fight to prove that this perception was wrong.
Syria has been rearming with sophisticated weaponry for the past several years. I think the syrians are ready. Assad could use a good spanking too.....hahahahahahahah...
If this war comes, I will argue in favor of indifference. I am not only unwilling, but honestly unable to give preference to any one of these cultures. The men we heard on either side are adult people and if they wage a war, there's no reason to condamn them alone: The peoples that elected them consist of adult persons, whom we must suppose to have an adult sense of judgement regardless of governmentally ordered contact restrictions etc. We must suppose that killing and dying is what they actually want and risk. There is no use in applying humanist concepts, no use in underlining the value of human life and to ask for diplomacy if those who are concerned do not value human life accordingly. Two countries, the first one founded in 1946, the second one founded in 1948: young nationalisms still, the third one, the Palestinian one remains to be satisfied. The desire of national self-assertion in the region is still stronger than the desire to lead maybe a moderate life, but a life in peace
I infer from the article that the concepts "calm,", "war," and "hostility" mean vastly different things to Israelis and Arabs than to the rest of the world. If there has never even been a peace treaty, however "cold," how can we presume peace? Does peace only mean the absence of active warfare? To wage a shooting "war" is a tactical and strategic choice taken when talking and pushing fail to achieve one's goals. Waging "war" on another state includes blockade, boycott, occupation, non-recognition, denial of right to exist, and support of hostile proxies. Aren't these things the usual standards everyday? When has there ever been peace there? Because Israel lacks the necessary military/political scenario or backing to destroy Syria, and Syria the military capability to defeat Israel, there is no shooting, that's all. Tourism, pretty hotels and "talking" with the US are also part of Israel's bag. Does that mean it will not wage "war" when it feels obligated and spy on the US?
The timing is interesting. Wonder why Israel is being "attacked" on so many fronts right now? It's a deliberate campaign to distract and confuse the West from what is the real issue: the nuclearization of the Middle East. If Iran gets the bomb, the Arab world will have no choice. Is it in the West's best interest to sit on the bench? If the West does not have the resolve, then our grand experiment likely come to an end. Do we really need to hit the reset button?
Netanyahu should invite Assad to Jerusalem to pray at the Mosque of Omar in the Noble Sanctuary.