Syria is blowing off steam, not rattling sabers

It's hard to find a rational explanation for the recent escalation of the war of words between Damascus and Jerusalem, with the possible exception of ignorance and the absence of a communications channel between the parties. While at first glance it appears that the winds of war are blowing in Syria, the hot air stems mainly from a misinterpretation of comments by Defense Minister Ehud Barak to the effect that an Israeli failure to reach an agreement with Syria could lead to an all-out war in the region. Barak intended to voice support for talks with Syria, but Damascus interpreted it as an attempt to force it to agree to negotiations with no preconditions. That led to a pointless declaration from Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem, warning Israel against drawing Syria into war, and an equally unnecessary counter-warning from Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.

But in the real world, international figures who have been to Syria recently believe that Damascus wants to reach an agreement with Israel - albeit one that restores all of the Golan Heights to it. Despite Lieberman's claims that Syria will not leave the "axis of evil" even after getting its territory back, there is near consensus in the Israeli intelligence community that Syria's link to Iran is a temporary, strategic alliance and not a permanent blood covenant.

But there is cause for concern regarding Israeli-Syrian relations. The leadership in Damascus does not trust its Jerusalem counterpart, and doubts the willingness of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and of Lieberman to agree to a historic compromise on the Golan. Syria has been burned in the past over negotiations that lasted years and bore no fruit. In addition, President Bashar Assad's government is more stable than ever, and its international status is steadily improving. At the same press conference in which he threatened Israel, Moallem announced that the United States had asked Damascus to approve its choice of ambassador to the country, Robert Ford. Perhaps encouraged by the Obama administration's impotence in the Middle East, the Syrians said they were considering the proposal.

In the absence of an American "stick," there is no obvious candidate for urging Syria to initiate unconditional talks with Israel.

Even Syria's bitter rivals in the Arab world, such as Saudi Arabia and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, son of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, who was assassinated in 2005, apparently on Syrian orders, recognize they must reconcile with Damascus for the sake of Lebanon's stability. Perhaps it is Syria's new, brighter situation that led Assad to declare that it will not stand idly by if Israel carries out another aerial assault on Syrian targets or if there is another mysterious assassination on Syrian soil.