Syria: All Israeli PMs for 20 years have agreed to Golan pullout

Contrary to reports in the Israeli media according to which Syria is willing to begin negotiations with Israel without preconditions, Damascus has insisted it will demand a full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights before it begins even indirect talks.

Meanwhile, Syrian Vice President Farouk Shara told the Baath Party convention that Syria would not agree to French mediation with Israel, but only to Turkish mediation.

He also said Syrian prisoners would be released in a deal to free abducted Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, but offered no further details.

The Syrian Foreign Ministry said in an official statement that the Israeli government knows full well that Syria would not renew unofficial talks via the Turkish mediator unless Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged full withdrawal from the Golan, a right it said had been recognized by the United Nations.

The statement noted that since the 1991 Madrid peace conference every Israeli prime minister has pledged a withdrawal from the Golan to the boundaries of June 4, 1967.

The Syrian Foreign Ministry also said that by promoting a bill requiring a referendum before any withdrawal agreement Israel was distancing itself from the will of the international community to attain peace in the region based on the principle of land for peace.

Although Netanyahu was quoted as telling the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Damascus was ready for talks with no preconditions, he apparently expressed himself more cautiously than that when he spoke of French President Nicolas Sarkozy's remarks to him that the latter thought Damascus would be willing to renew talks with no preconditions.

Still, messages sent by Damascus, via open channels as well as less open ones, indicate that Syria is willing to renew indirect talks through Turkey, if Netanyahu commits himself to the "Olmert legacy" - in other words to renewing the talks from the place they had stopped during Olmert's term. Olmert, the Syrians say, had pledged to the Turks to withdraw from the Golan.

The Syrian insistence stems from a number of causes: First, Damascus believes the Netanyahu government is not headed for peace, and therefore does not want to waste months on negotiations, as happened in negotiations conducted between 1993 and 2000. That will do the Syrians no good, and will damage its standing in the Arab world.

Syria turned down French mediation for the same reason. "They believe Netanyahu is not serious about peace, so why should they ruin their ties with the Turks if nothing will come of it anyway," Prof. Eyal Zisser, director of Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, says. "Agreeing to French mediation now means starting from zero, while the Turks know very well where the talks with Israel had stopped," Susser said.

Syria may also be digging in its heels due to a a lack of urgency, particularly in the presidential palace, about peace with Israel. After 10 years in office, President Bashar Assad's position is very strong.

Doubts about the seriousness of the Netanyahu government, coupled with Syria's military weakness, have led the Syrians to help Hezbollah. Syria is now the organization's main weapons supplier. As far as Damascus is concerned ties with Hezbollah, Hamas and even with the Iranians serve Syrian interests.

"We should not expect a complete severance of ties with Iran. If Turkish Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan can visit Tehran and embrace Ahmadinejad, why can't Bashar Assad," Susser says. However, Susser also says that the more progress is made in talks with the Syrians and the more Israel signals willingness to completely withdraw from the Golan, the cooler Syria's relations with Iran will become. "We might then see practical steps, like an end to the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, if Israel asks," he said.

It seems that for now a peace agreement with Syria is not realistic. Its achievement, however, would change the face of the Middle East. The familiar axis of evil versus the moderate axis would change dramatically, and Iran's power would be curtailed.