Some PA officials secretly wishing for Sharon win

In an about-face, members of the Palestinian leadership are quietly hoping that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon wins in the Likud referendum today on the proposal for a unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip. This was not so 10 days ago.

Following the declaration of President George Bush on April 14, recognizing the existence of settlement salients in the West Bank, rejecting the right of return for Palestinians inside the Green Line, and recognizing as borders those of the 1949 cease-fire agreements, Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia was furious.

"We reject completely the Bush statements and the American position that is opposed to all signed agreements. We call upon the international community and the Arab states to reject these declarations and not cooperate with them or with the disengagement plan, against which the Palestinians will act with all their power," he declared.

The Palestinians were so upset they considered announcing the resignation of their government in protest, possibly causing the devolution of the Palestinian Authority and resuming the struggle through the old ways of the PLO.

But a week ago, in fact three days after Sharon threatened the welfare of Yasser Arafat, Qureia announced, after a meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak that "the Palestinian Authority is capable and ready to administer the Gaza Strip if Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip."

The change in the Palestinian stance does not reflect an acceptance of the American statements, which came during Sharon's visit to Washington. Prior to Sharon's departure for the U.S. senior Palestinian officials did not believe the Prime Minister was serious about departing from Gaza. Making matters worse, Bush's statments caught them by surprise.

But with the passing of time the Palestinians understood that whether Sharon succeeds or fails in the referendum, there is a new dynamic in play, which is reminiscent of the snowball effect that accompanied the IDF withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. They also had time to receive clarifications on the Bush statements, whose formulation may be new but whose substance is no different from those aired by President Bill Clinton and other administration officials.

The Palestinians are expecting, through Jordan's King Abdullah, that a meeting of the quartet will take place, with representatives from the U.S., the European Union, Russia and the UN in New York. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan is expected to address the issue of the Israeli disengagement as part of the implementation of the road map.