Shas' Yishai: Kadima gov't has reached its end

Shas chairman Eli Yishai says he believes neither Tzipi Livni nor Shaul Mofaz has much of a chance of establishing an alternative government after the Kadima primary next week.

Speaking at a meeting with the heads of the ultra-Orthodox party's municipal headquarters in Jerusalem, Yishai, who is also industry, trade and labor minister, said coalition talks after the primary will lead to a dead end, and then to early elections in March 2009.

Until recently, sources in Kadima and the political system had said they assumed that if Livni were elected, she would lead as quickly as possible to elections.

However, now it seems that both Livni and Mofaz would prefer to head the same cabinet, with 29 sure seats, rather than face elections.

Shas is considered key in the creation of an alternative cabinet after the primary and Yishai intends to conduct tough negotiations with Kadima's new leader.

A deal-breaker would reportedly be restoring slashed child allowances. Shas will also demand that clear positions on the way talks are being handled with the Palestinians be part of the coalition agreement. Such positions would allow Shas, which opposes discussion of the core issues, to join the coalition.

Although both Livni and Mofaz are expected to court Shas (Mofaz has already strengthened his ties with Shas), Yishai said he believes that since the original date for the elections is only a year and a half away, the Kadima leader will have to sharpen his or her positions and go to elections from a place of strength rather than appear as having given in to Shas. This reduces the chances of establishing an alternative government with Shas.

There is also little likelihood that Yisrael Beiteinu will return to the cabinet. Livni, who has declared she would aspire to a wide coalition will nevertheless have difficulty bringing in Yisrael Beiteinu, which bolted from the cabinet over progress in the peace talks.

Yishai says, therefore, that while coalition talks will open immediately after the Kadima primary, he believes they will peter out at an early stage.

"The political system is at its end, and therefore all the parties are looking toward the next elections. Since there's not a lot of time before elections, the members of Knesset have less motivation to keep their seats," he also said.

Sources close to Yishai rejected the notion that Yishai very much wants early elections because of his concerns over former Shas chairman Aryeh Deri's return to the political scene.

They said Yishai's status is assured as long as Rabbi Ovadia Yosef controls Shas, and that elections will mean he will head the party for a few more years at least. Shas is ready for elections, the sources said, and the polls indicate it will maintain its strength.

The sources also said Yishai had no personal interest, but rather was giving a realistic evaluation of the political system after the Kadima primary that he had expressed before Deri decided on his comeback.