Shas stalls talks, Livni fast-tracks Meretz, UTJ deals

Shas and United Torah Judaism have decided to coordinate their coalition negotiations with prime minister-designate Tzipi Livni. In particular, both are conditioning their entry into the coalition on the addition of NIS 1 billion to the budget for child allowances.

The joint front essentially thwarts Livni's decision, which senior members of her Kadima Party had announced earlier yesterday, to look into establishing a government without Shas unless coalition negotiations with the ultra-Orthodox party made progress quickly. This scenario called for her to try to replace Shas with UTJ and Meretz.

Livni was supposed to meet with Shas Chairman Eli Yishai last night, but the meeting was canceled. A statement released jointly by their bureaus said the cancelation was due purely to family obligations on Yishai's part, and had nothing to do with the progress of the negotiations.

But Shas sources said that earlier in the day, the party had rejected an offer from Livni to increase the child allowances by NIS 600 million. Political sources from various parties thus predicted that Livni would have to substantially up her offer - to something approaching the NIS 1 billion that Shas is demanding - to sign a deal.

Shas has also said it would not agree to spread the sum out over a period of several years, which Kadima would prefer.

Livni's negotiating team did, however, meet yesterday with Knesset members from UTJ, and Kadima sources claimed afterward that the latter were surprised by the generosity of Kadima's budgetary offers, which in many areas even exceeded UTJ's demands.

But UTJ faction chairman Yaakov Litzman denied this, saying that no progress was made at yesterday's session and that the likelihood of UTJ entering the coalition without Shas was almost nonexistent.

"Our basic demands are identical," he explained. "So if a deal is worked out with us, then Shas will join in any case."

Earlier, upon entering the room, Litzman had warned: "If we're here to threaten Shas, I'm leaving." He reiterated this after the meeting, saying: "If Livni thinks to use us against Shas, she's making a mistake. I'm not willing to beat on Shas ... If they're thinking of using us against Shas, then they have a problem: We're coordinated."

Livni also met yesterday with Meretz-Yachad chairman Haim Oron, and the two parties' negotiating teams are slated to meet today. Both that and the meeting with UTJ - after which Kadima members made sure to inform Shas of the scope of Livni's proposals to the rival ultra-Orthodox party - were meant to signal to Shas that "we don't need you to form a government," and that unless it settled for a more modest increase in child allowances, Livni would look for ways to replace it.

"We're making progress with Meretz and UTJ, and you're going to lose everything," one senior Kadima member said he told Shas yesterday. "If you think it's either a government [with you] or elections, you're making a mistake, and you'll find yourselves drying out in the opposition."

But the UTJ MKs who attended yesterday's session said that they, too, are demanding an NIS 1 billion increase in the budget for child allowances, along with millions in extra funding for yeshivas, the chairmanship of the Knesset Finance Committee, and a pledge that no negotiations will be conducted with the Palestinians over Jerusalem. The latter also echoes a demand raised by Shas.

Moreover, the MKs denied Kadima's claim that specific budgetary proposals, with hard numbers, had been made. "It's all spin," said Litzman. "A few things were raised, but they didn't talk about money."

A senior Shas source said yesterday that the party had made "a strategic decision not to concede on the money for the [child] allowances. From our standpoint, negotiations won't even begin below the level of NIS 800 million. We have no intention of exerting ourselves to enter the Livni government. As is, we're disturbed by the negotiations with the Palestinians that she's conducting."

Another Shas source added: "There's a great fear in Shas that Livni is interested in going into the next elections with a 'shelf agreement' [with the Palestinians] and from the position of prime minister, whereas Shas would find itself in great trouble in such a government."

But Shas also feels it is entering the negotiations from a position of strength, so it can afford to stand firm on its demands, despite the fact that the party's spiritual leader, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, would prefer not to call early elections.

At her meeting with Oron, Livni said that she is interested in having Meretz in her coalition. But Oron stressed that if any restrictions are put on negotiations with the Palestinians, such as Shas and UTJ are demanding, "Meretz will not sit in such a government."

The current coalition, which includes Shas, has 67 MKs; thus without Shas, Livni would be left with only 55 MKs. If she could pull if off, however, the addition of both Meretz and UTJ would bring the coalition back up to 66 MKs.