Shadow of Lebanon / Shock and awe

The First Gaza War, which began yesterday, is being waged under the heavy shadow of the Second Lebanon War. If the first days of that war were characterized by bragging and the use of relatively little force, this time Israel is trying the opposite: Its goals are quite modest, and the strength, considering the small area of Gaza, is great. It is the heaviest attack on the Gaza Strip since the Six-Day War in 1967.

Israel's opening attack was on Hamas headquarters, launchers and commanders. Among the hundreds of dead are major figures in the organization's military wing. The effect of the surprise was to engender "shock and awe," like the American attack on Iraq in 2003. The IDF hopes the attack on the Hamas chain of command will make it difficult to operate over the next few days.

Rocket fire has meanwhile been less than expected, partially because the Israel Air Force managed to hit some of the launchers. But Hamas can fire some 200 rockets a day at Israel, and since yesterday, Israel has given it the motivation.

GOC Southern Command Maj. Gen. Yoav Gallant had pushed in recent years for action, and yesterday the plan prepared by the Southern Command and the air force went into action. Gallant is commanding a significant part of the battle from Be'er Sheva, overseen by the chief of staff in Tel Aviv.

In Jerusalem it has not been decided whether to commit ground forces deep into the Strip. At this point, that move appears very risky. Long months of systematic action will be required, and Israel does not have a diplomatic plan for the end of the fighting.

It seems that the government would be happy if an external element (the United States? The United Nations?) stopped the operation, but only after Hamas is struck a major blow.

Military Intelligence says Hamas does not want an all-out war and that Hamas was surprised at the strength of the IDF response. Israel's technological edge, in a small area like Gaza, is great as long as it does not get mired down in the refugee camps and cities.

However the wider implications of the conflict are unknown. If Hamas manages to drag Hezbollah into the area, bring about violent demonstrations by Israeli Arabs or initiate suicide bombings in Jerusalem, things could change.

It is best to remember that all the objections Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Barak stated until two weeks ago are still valid. Israel has the element of surprise and control of the air space. But we can assume the Palestinians will be coming up with some surprises of their own. Victory celebrations should wait.