Rumblings of dissatisfaction

The new police investigation against Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is expected to have serious implications on the developments in the political-security arena, and mainly on the Egyptian effort to achieve a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. If aspects of the criminal investigation come to dominate Israeli political life - as they seem to be at this stage - it will be difficult for Israel to advance on the Palestinian track, especially in matters that may require tough concessions.

Olmert, meanwhile, tried to give the impression that everything was business as usual. "We will continue working on all issues on the national agenda and we will take care of the State of Israel's affairs," he promised yesterday, referring to his scheduled meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Some people have rallied to his support, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who is not exhibiting any signs of desperation and who once more reasserted the values set forth at the Annapolis summit last November.

Rice met with Olmert Saturday night and continued her rounds yesterday with meetings with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and the head of the PA's negotiating team, Ahmed Qureia, also came to Jerusalem for meetings with Rice and senior Israeli officials. The Palestinian negotiators are sufficiently knowledgeable of the situation in Israel that they have concluded that if the suspicions against Olmert turn into concrete accusations, the negotiations will go into a deep freeze. It is also possible that Olmert's image in the Arab world, of a survivor, has led them to conclude that they must continue the talks. But for the most part, it seems they understood that if the talks cease, only Hamas would benefit.

Hamas, however, also has something to lose. Most of the senior leadership in the Gaza Strip is keen to secure a temporary cease-fire, a tahadiyeh. If they learn that Israel is delaying accepting the Egyptian initiative, they may renew, or even step up Hamas' role in attacks against Israel. If so, the temptation for the group is great to carry out a showcase terrorist attack that would disrupt the 60th Independence Day celebrations. Yesterday Hamas fired its first - verbal - warning.

First, some of its spokesmen threatened that the group would embark on an "unprecedented escalation" if Israel does not quickly respond favorably to the proposed tahadiyeh. Several hours later, a heavy barrage of Qassam rockets was fired at Sderot - offering a real sample of what the group had in mind when it mentioned escalation.

In view of the uproar surrounding the new Olmert case, the Egyptian intelligence chief, General Omar Suleiman, has once more delayed his visit to Israel, which was originally scheduled to take place this week. Last week the Egyptians provided Israel with an abridged version of the tahadiyeh agreement: The cease-fire was "total, simultaneous, in all areas." But the next sentence hides reservations: In parallel to a cease-fire in the Strip, an effort will be made to reach a cease-fire in the West Bank. This is an Egyptian effort to bypass the main obstacle to an agreement: Israel's refusal to cease its operations and detentions of suspects in the West Bank.

If in practice the cease-fire in the West Bank is delayed by six months, this will be a major achievement for Egyptian negotiators. In any case, the chance that the Gaza Strip will remain calm for six months is considered highly unlikely by all involved. Jerusalem is still waiting for detailed clarifications on the offer, and specifically the effort to contain arms smuggling - against which Egypt is promising to undertake "special efforts."

In Israel there is concern that despite Egyptian promises, if the efforts toward a tahadiyeh fail, Cairo will open the Rafah crossing in the southern Gaza Strip. The agreement between Olmert and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, for a hotline between the two capitals, has still not been implemented, much to Israel's chagrin. Meanwhile, Israel is sending contrasting signals to the Egyptians: While the Foreign Ministry's response is positive, there is a rumbling of dissatisfaction from the Defense Ministry, the Israel Defense Forces' top brass and the Shin Bet security service.