New IDF intelligence chief failed to predict Egypt uprising
Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi said Mubarak's government was not under threat and that Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood was not sufficiently organized to take power.
By Jonathan Lis Tags: Israel news Egypt protestsOn Tuesday, the day the unrest began that led to the collapse of the Egyptian cabinet, Israel's new head of Military Intelligence told a Knesset committee that President Hosni Mubarak's government was not under threat.
The new MI chief, Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, made the comments in his first appearance in his new role. He also said Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood was not sufficiently organized to take power and was not closing ranks significantly.
Click here for more Haaretz coverage of events in Egypt
According to members of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Kochavi did not address the situation in Egypt, even though protests had already erupted. He only discussed the situation there after being asked about it by committee members, saying he expected Mubarak to be able to keep the demonstrations in check and that his regime was stable.
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IDF Military Intelligence Chief Brigadier-General Aviv Kochavi. |
| Photo by: Alon Ron |
One Knesset member who pressed Kochavi was Aryeh Eldad (National Union ). On Saturday, Eldad took Kochavi to task for his situation assessment, saying that Israeli intelligence, along with other leading intelligence services around the world, had failed to predict wars and revolutions. He did concede, however, that it was difficult to predict such events.
Kochavi was much more pessimistic in his remarks to the Knesset committee regarding Lebanon. He said another civil war there was possible, though this time Hezbollah would try to prevent such an outcome. Despite the economic interest in avoiding a civil war, such a conflict could be fueled by the interests and power of ideologues, Kochavi said.
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Kochavi was dead wrong. But to isolate him and talk about the tragic failure of one person - no, that´s not serious. The problem is much bigger than that - we have too many complacent people that keeps talking in a over-confident manner, when in fact the only thing they can offer is a lousy guessing-game. And then we have Galant/Harpaz-gate, and the tension between Barak and Ashkenazi - the infighting and the bickering. Do they have their priorites in proper order? Our leaders totally misread the situation - in october 1973. And disaster fell upon us. Maybe they are totally in the dark - also today? Scary, indeed. Israel is surrounded by upheavals and islamist aspirations - and our leaders, what to they do? Are they busy with their egos and careers? Well, then the only thing to do is to pray for help and mercy.
How many Karnaks are there? Do you want somebody doing intel or playing fortune teller?
The big chief of yore failed to predict the rise success of the hamas in gaza.What an absolute waste of public money,and what a fabulous pension for a dud,
It is unknown who is commander in chief Medvedev as president or Putin as prime minister and chief of party.
This assertion is just stupid.To think that this one man of an Intelligence guy can somehow know the mood or mind of all Egyptians is a display of utter ignorance.The tension simmering in the region is like a boiling frog in water.Anybody could have predicted this except Israeli "Intelligence".It turns out the Arab street hated their rulers more than Iran, contrary to Wikileak's claims.Instead of Israel building confidence and friendship with her neighbors, they've rather vouched for supporting dictators against their own people in suppressing and oppressing them.When people are pushed against the wall for so long , they explode.About time.
Can the Left ever learn?
Once again the oxymoron "military Intelligence" is exposed. Let's hope this failure isn't as disastrous as in 1973.
For that matter, Obama's admin had no clue about Egypt either.
Israel cannot afford to make such mistakes. If the Egypt army attacks by surprise like in 1973 the very existence of our State is in danger.
is the man playing GOD to predict what will happen to others ? i,m certain that he can,t predict his own destiny or that of israel . the man is a failure , he should be replaced .
Fire this kid- the intelligence chief. Because you like the status quo in Egypt does not mean that it is sustainable for ever.Thirty years is a long time even though you have been taking all possible measures to continue the same. The man is 82 and close to his grave. It is a common sense that change is inevitable, you don,t have to be IDF chief to predict it.You are fired Kochavi.
This man is certainly not an intelligent chief. Israel must hurry to replace him. Israel may also return the former intelligence chief to work until a competent and smart one one is chosen. When you leave in the valley of enemies, all you need is smart intelligence works. Any leap hole is considered a dangerous mistake, Israel should avoid this mistake.
Delusion is seeing in the world what you would like to see, rather than seeing the world the way it is. A strong propaganda always creates delusion in the minds of the people who are supposed to be dealing with facts.
It started with the revolution in Tunisia although unlike in Tunisia in Egypt it was started by the Muslim Brotherhood. Mohammed El Baradei has allied himself with the Brotherhood and when these riots were in their infancy he was calling on Egyptians to rise up and overthrow Mubarak. Conveniently he happens to want the presidency for himself. This did though all happen so quickly I am not sure any intelligence agency could have predicted this.
.. and do not waste time with a search for the "heads of the revolution", you wont find them anyway. .. by the way; there is no such thing as a "stable society"
He was and is so obssessed with Iran, and propaganda against Iran that he forgot his job, if he ever knew what that entails. The same way they forgot to predict 1979 revolution in Iran. You need to employ me to tell what is going to happen next. Read every western News outlet and every politician in the west, they all ask Mubarak to implement reforms.What a bunch of losers, reform would have been possible 10 years back, not now. Mubarak is a lost cause, better start living with the reality. You should be lucky for Islamic Britherhood not to take over Egypt. Better start thinking how you want to rescure Saudi.
Why has it been 2,000 since we have seen a Jewish prophet grace the presence of the Middle East?!
destruction of the hezbollah power?
Hell...even the Muslim Brotherhood got caught flatfooted!
The hallmarks of unrest have existed for years, and once the recession became as deep as it has it should'be been setting off alarm bells.
He also didn't predict the great Tsunami.....Tunisia.... Give him a break
he couldnt be any more wrong, I have no training but i can sense that the underlying problems are so big and the egypt state is relatively poor so it wouldnt take an expert to common sense the brewing trouble.
No one has been toppled yet nor has anyone been crushed. It is a stand off. Is the regime under threat clearly not if they use force. If the military act the WH will cut aid, so they will have to decide to move at the last moment and accept that penalty. Everyone knew it was coming but martial law and a curfew and house arrest are not acceptable to the WH prior to the event and not during the crisis. The WH think this will scare others into reform so Mubarak has been sacrificed it will have the opposite affect people will go MIA. It is like IHH we know who they are what the are, the assessment is that the Turkish State would not conduct such a state sponsored provocation, they did. Egypt will crush this uprising, they have not yet. We have had this threat of aid being cut off for years over an Iranian strike. Once this is all over Egypt and Israel will be closer than ever.
The turmoil in Egypt and in Jordan demonstrates the fragility of any peace agreement that Israel has ALREADY made with Egypt or with Jordan. Having advised the militaries of both Egypt and Jordan early in my career, I have always been concerned with their capabilities which are very advanced. In the military, we are trained to focus on capabilities since intentions can shift at the blink of an eye. The Egyptian military has always been far stronger and better equipped than was needed to repel any enemy. The only possible use of this military might would be against Israel. These are grave times. Hamas has actively put forces into Egypt. The Moslem brotherhood which is been standing aside and observing the turmoil has now entered into the turmoil. All revolutions start off sweetly… Then the organized radicals who have been standing on the sidelines take over. Israel should be on alert and count itself fortunate that it did not give more “land for peace.” Had Israel taken its "opportunity "as urged by Israeli leftists( and by much of the world) to sign peace treaties with the Palestinians, with the Syrians, and with others Israel would have given up many tangible things for vacuous words which will now be disowned as"not binding" as they came from a previous "corrupt, and traitorous” regime. I wish my Israeli friends well but urge them not to listen to any foreign “advisor” such as Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama or the European Union or the Russians. Only Israel can protect itself. You live in the Middle East! Do you believe that anything has changed will change.?
the peace with Egypt with a corrupt regime for the last 30 years has meant that on that frontier at least, Israeli & Egyptian mothers and wives have not had to bury their sons and husbands as happened 4 times in the preceding 30 years. It is often said that this peace is a 'cold peace' and if it gets colder it's still peace. Better than 'hot' war.
The Israeli intelligence community who are also part time Astrologists, have yet again failed to predict the magnitude of this Egyptian earthquake. They failed in Lebanon, Gaza, Egypt, Tunisia, Turkey and most of all, Iran. Nothing is going their way recently. Here is a free advice: try palm reading!
Stephen's Law: "Everything that happens is always a surprise, but after the fact proves perfectly predictable."
Would ANY person predicting situation have gotten the job? Mubarak had been asking Israel to make peace with Palestine and upbraiding the USA for not doing anything to cause peace. Why? Is Israel responsible for the situation? Of course not. Mubarak created the situation by ever more despotic and negligent behavior over thirty years. Still, it was an article of belief in Israel that Mubarak was utterly safe and reliable. Nothing he did or said should be considered. That there was no reason to question his security. Would ANY person who questioned that comfortable belief of the Israeli government been appointed to head a security service which has the primary goal of the government of Israel? Of course not. There comes a point in total corruption where the purposes of the intelligence services is not to provide the truth quickly, but to provide the politically correct justification for the desires of the politicians. That is the situation which prevailed in the USA in 2003, or Israel today.