MI: Hamas won't halt terror

Hamas will not cease its terror attacks on Israeli targets in the run-up to the Palestinian Authority leadership elections on January 9, according to an updated intelligence assessment from Israeli officials.

The intelligence officials believe that after the elections, too, Hamas will continue to carry out terror attacks, but will consider - under pressure from the PA - reducing its activities to what it terms "the 1948 areas" (within the Green Line) and focusing its strikes on "the 1967 areas," namely the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

A high-ranking security source told Haaretz yesterday that from the point of view of Hamas, perpetuating the image that Israel is fleeing the Gaza Strip under fire, and primarily the organization's attacks, is a vital matter. As a result, Hamas will continue with its attacks on soldiers and settlers in the Strip.

On the other hand, the source said, the organization may somewhat rein in its efforts to send suicide bombers into Israel for two reasons - the great difficulty in dispatching suicide bombers from Gaza, and the fall-off in the Palestinian public's support for suicide bombings in the wake of Yasser Arafat's death and the current hope for a renewal of political negotiations.

At this stage, intelligence officials believe, Hamas has no intentions of ceasing to use Qassam rockets, even if they are fired into Israel. The organizations views the rocket as a strategic weapon that can threaten Israel.

Defense establishment sources note that Hamas is making supreme efforts to increase the range of its rockets - which can currently strike at targets some 10 kilometers away - and their accuracy.

Intelligence officials also note a recent tightening of ties between Hamas and Iran, which is pressing the organization to continue with its terror attacks.

Security sources do not attribute much significance to statements made by Sheikh Hassan Yussef, a senior Hamas official in the West Bank, who suggested that the organization consider a long-term hudna (cease-fire) with Israel. The sources say that Yussef does not command a high enough status, and that the organization's real decisions are made by the leadership that sits in Damascus.

The leadership in Gaza believes in a slightly more moderate approach, and it is the one that is pushing for the organization's participation in the political process in the PA.

Hamas is not participating in the PA's leadership elections, and this decision is playing into the hands of likely PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), who faces no strong opposition to his leadership.

At this stage it appears that Hamas will participate in the elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council, slated for May.

The defense establishment believes Abbas will refrain from direct confrontations with the terror groups, and is expected to uphold his current line of conducting lengthy persuasive talks and creating a public mood that has reservations about continued terror attacks.

Even if Abbas steps up his efforts to reign in the terror groups following his election victory, the process will be a very lengthy one. A high-ranking security source said that it will take "a year or two at least" before the PA reassumes control of the security situation.