Kosovo independence is imminent - but when?

PRISTINA, Kosovo - The uncertainty surrounding Kosovo's bid for independence is encapsulated in a current joke: "The Serbs have already accepted our independence this year, but on one condition, that we declare it on February 29. Belgrade thinks that would mean the Albanian dogs could only celebrate independence every four years."

Nine years after the largely Albanian province plunged into violent ethnic clashes, perhaps this is a sign of the Kosovarians' self-confidence. They can joke about what has been for years their unattainable dream.

Two months ago the talks with the Serbs about a compromise agreement ended with no results. Former guerrilla commander Hashim Thaci was elected two months ago on a platform pledging to declare independence quickly. A week ago he announced that independence is "a matter of days." Prishtina is rife with speculation regarding the date of the independence declaration, which Kosovarians are expecting any day now. From the cigarette vendors on the roadsides to local politicians huddled in smoke-filled Prishtina restaurants, this is what everyone is talking about.

"First of all, everyone knows it will be made on a Sunday," says Tony, a receptionist in the city's Afa Hotel. "The UN headquarters in New York will be closed on that day, and the Russians won't be able to convene the Security Council."

On that day, say Kosovarian journalists, a few key states will hasten to recognize the new state, making its independence a fait accompli. Kosovo assembly speaker Jakup Krasniqi said yesterday that independence would be declared "this month." The three days seen as the best bet are the 10, 17 and 24.

According to one rumor, Kosovo will declare independence tomorrow, February 6, when its parliament convenes for a scheduled session. Another persistent rumor says that by the end of the week the parliament will announce only the date on which it will declare independence, one of the coming Sundays.

Kosovarians refuse to acknowledge the effect of Sunday's elections in Serbia on the independence declaration. Thaci said recently that the date has been set and is being kept secret in Prishtina, Brussels and Washington.

However, one could feel a certain disappointment in Kosovo over the Serbs' election of the pro-European candidate Boris Tadic, rather than his nationalist rival Tomislav Nikolic.

"This changes the atmosphere a little for the worse," Kosovo's former shadow cabinet head Bujar Bukoshi told Haaretz. "Suddenly the Serbs are becoming sort of brave democrats who have chosen the European Union. Had Nikolic been elected, independence would have been declared in the next few days."

Bukoshi laments Russia's rising power, which enables it to block the Security Council debate on Kosovo's independence.

"You in Israel had a proper election, in the UN, with all the members," said Bukoshi. "We are denied that, because of the Russians."

Despite the uncertainly, the city is preparing for the declaration. The UN center, which runs Kosovo together with NATO troops, is expecting some 2,000 journalists if independence is declared. Afa Hotel has put up posters in English throughout the city welcoming citizens of the states that recognize Kosovo.

"The date doesn't matter, as long as independence is declared," says Tony the receptionist.

Thaci told journalists yesterday that the date has already been set, and "all that's left is to make it public." Meanwhile, the Kosovarians are waiting.