Israel expects little warning from U.S. before Iraqi war

Defense Ministry sources are certain that the United States will give Israel a warning before starting an attack against Iraq. The warning is expected to be made shortly before the attack begins - a matter of hours, at best.

A number of Israel Defense Forces units are preparing for the attack on Iraq under the assumption that they will enjoy only a six-hour warning prior to the start of the offensive. It is expected that the warning from Washington will be received through a secure telephone communication at the most senior levels. Possibly, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will be given the warning of the impending attack by President George W. Bush himself.

Another possibility is that the warning will be made by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, by National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, or the head of the Central Intelligence Agency, George Tennet, to their Israeli counterparts.

In spite of extensive talks on the subject, however, Israel has still not received an American commitment to provide anearly warning prior to its attack on Iraq.

The IDF is preparing for the possibility that the American attack will begin on March 1, immediately after the end of the additional two-week period that the U.S. and Britain agreed to following presentation of the UN arms inspectors' report to the Security Council last week.

The most prevalent assessment at this time - which seems to vacillate depending on the success or failure of the U.S. to rally sufficient support for its cause - is that the attack will begin during the first week of March.

In Israel, there is a feeling of certainty that the American president has no intention of pulling back from his plan to attack Iraq, and that in spite of international opposition to the offensive, it will eventually take place.

As the estimated date of the attack draws near, the IDF is planning to call up a limited number of reservists for duty in the Home Front Command. The call-up may begin as early as the middle of next week and will include specialists who play key roles in the command.

Many of those reservists who will be called up have already received early warning. Some have been asked to sign forms confirming that they know they will be called up for duty on very short notice.

Last week, the IDF began a limited call-up of reservists for duty in the air defense systems of the air force. Most of these reservists will man the Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems - the two batteries that arrived on loan from Germany - and the Hawk missiles.

Intelligence and air force units are also expected to call up reservists. At the air force, preparedness has been heightened to a certain degree, mostly to counter the possibility of an Iraqi air attack.

At the IDF, there are concerns that the time available between the American warning and the actual start of the offensive is too short. Nonetheless, Defense Ministrysources expressed their understanding of the Americans' need to "keep their cards close to their chests" regarding the exact date and time of the attack.

Israeli authorities acknowledge that the chances of a leak to the press cannot be dismissed and therefore understand that American caution is justified. The Americans have expressed their dissatisfaction in the past with the Israeli press' failure to keep sensitive information under wraps.

As the war approaches, the Home Front Command will likely, over the course of a few days, issue general directions regarding self-defense to the Israeli public, asking it to prepare sealed rooms, to practice using gas masks and to begin carrying them around at all times.

Still, the IDF says that it will not declare an emergency situation with the start of the offensive, but will adjust its instructions as the situation unfolds.

Defense analysts emphasize that the chances that missiles will be fired against Israel by Iraq are very small - especially in view of the absence of any intelligence on the presence of missiles and launchers in the western desert of Iraq. The chances of a missile attack on Israel may increase during the offensive if Iraqi President Saddam Hussein begins to feel that the end of his rule is near. However, it is still not clear whether Iraqi forces in charge of the missile batteries will heed Saddam Hussein's orders to fire missiles at Israel.

The arrival in Israel this weekend of senior U.S. liaison officer General Charles Simpson signals the beginning of the countdown to the start of the American offensive in Iraq. General Simpson will stay in Israel indefinitely and will be in charge of coordination and communication between the Defense Ministry and the Pentagon.

General Simpson, chief operations officer of the U.S. Air Force in Europe, has paid Israel three visits since he was appointed chief liaison officer to the IDF in December. During his last visit, early this month, he participated in a live firing exercise of Patriot air-defense missiles, carried out by combined U.S. Army and IDF forces in the Negev. Technical teams from the U.S. have been busy in recent weeks setting up the necessary infrastructure for facilitating coordination and communication between the two defense forces.

Assessments in Israel are that the U.S. will begin its attack against Iraq during the first week of March.