Israel and U.S. at odds over timetables and red lines for Iran
Although the U.S. has put pressure on Iran with more aggressive statements, an initiative to increase international sanctions and a clash over Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, Jerusalem is not satisfied.
By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel Tags: Iran threat Iran nuclear NATO Benjamin Netanyahu Ehud Barak JerusalemThe two meetings this week between the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey and Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz have been scheduled for some time. But the immediate context cannot be ignored: growing tension over the Iranian nuclear program and what appears to be renewed (and increased) American concerns that Israel might attack Iran's nuclear sites.
Dempsey and Gantz are expected meet first at mid-week in Brussels during the annual conference of NATO chiefs of staff, an event to which the Israeli chief of staff is always invited. Two days later Dempsey will arrive in Israel.
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U.S. President Barack Obama talks with Defense Minister Ehud Barak before delivering remarks at the 71st General Assembly of the Union for Reform Judaism, Dec. 16, 2011. |
| Photo by: Pete Souza / Courtesy of the White House |
Although Washington has ratcheted up pressure on Iran of late with a combination of more aggressive statements, an initiative to increase international sanctions and what appears to be an approaching clash over Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, Jerusalem is not satisfied. Israel is not impressed by Iran's deep economic crisis, which is increasing pressure on the regime as it prepares for parliamentary elections in March.
At the heart of the argument between Jerusalem and Washington are questions about timetables and red lines.
The start of uranium enrichment at the underground site near the city of Qom has raised the level of anxiety in Israel. In an interview with CNN two months ago, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that less than a year remained to stop Iran's nuclear plans. Barak thus presented Israel's red line: From the moment most of the uranium is being enriched at a protected site, Iran will be in "immune space," and the option of a military attack (at least by Israel) is off the table.
The American red line, however, is more distant - at the point were Iran has progressed in the development of a nuclear warhead rather than making do with nuclear capability. That line has not yet been crossed.
Do Barak and Netanyahu really intend to attack on their own, or is Israel only trying to prod the West into more decisive action? That is the million-dollar question.
It has been discussed intermittently for the past three years and it seems that Washington does not have a satisfactory answer to it. What is clear is that speculation about it in the American media - this time, surprisingly, without contributory Israeli chatter - raises the heat in Tehran as well. Apparently the risk of an imminent clash, first of all between American and Iranian ships in the Persian Gulf, is growing.
Hezbollah is contributing to this already tense situation. Over the weekend a Hezbollah terror strike against an Israeli target was averted in Bangkok, Thailand. This is the second such incident, following a warning of an attack by the same group on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria. Hezbollah is serving these days as the long arm of Iran, operated directly by the branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards known as Al Quds.
The context is not only the approaching anniversary of the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh, but also the killings of Iranian nuclear scientists in Tehran. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah pledged yesterday that the killings would not stop the Iranian nuclear project.
Iran and Hezbollah are now also focusing their efforts on saving Syrian President Bashar Assad. Al Quds commander Gen. Kassem Suleimani recently visited Syria to help quash the revolt against the regime. Nasrallah knows that if Damascus falls, the demand to disarm Hezbollah - which he derided yesterday - will come up again more forcefully.
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....an underground test is observable and undeniable. Once the Iranians test a warhead, their intentions are clearly military and a military response is justified. Anything prior to test is conjecture subject to political manipulation by Israel and, as the US learned in Iraq,
obama can still become a great president
And it's this:Obama has been told by the Russians/Chinese that in the event of an Israeli pre-emptive strike if the USA comes to Israel's aid then they'll come to Iran's aid.
Chines and Russian are well aware that deeping the mundial economic crisis by closing the strait of ormuz is not in their economic interest, because they depend more in bilateral commerce with the west (USA and EU) than with iran. So Iran is not so important
serve isreal to Iran NOW
The Russians dont care about Iran. The Chinese see it as an oil source. It is not enough to threaten nuclear war.
The problem is Bibi's Messiah complex. He thinks he is destined to save Israel when he really is thinking just like Tojo. He threatens the economies of India and China, both nuclear armed states and downwind of Iran. Wars are fought for economic purposes.
its called accellerated briefings to reschedule their own time-tables.
... is this: Israel thinks that it can start a war with Iran and the *only* other country that will get sucked into the fighting is the USA, which will mean Game Over, Man. But the Americans fear that if they jump in then the Russians and Chinese will jump in on the side of the Iranians, which will mean a replay of the Korean War.
Not nearly so contained.
That's its main problem i.e. Israel can't think past this mindset: if we sucker the USA in then it's game, set, and match. But the Americansask themselves wether the Russians and the Chinese won't then jump in on the side of the Iranians. That's how World Wars start, and the Americans know that. But Israel? They are not so smart...
The only argument is about the timeline for armed intervention. Does Obama want to have it just a month before US elections?
Both timelines for both Israel and the US are predicated on "if" Iran does something. There is no evidence at hand that Iran is developing nuclear weapons according to the UN inspectors. But that is irrelevant--USIsrael want regime change. Period. The nuclear argument is a pretext.
obama is still convinced that his genius will pull a rabbit out of the hat and he will achieve a miraculous diplomatic breakthrough. he is trying to avoid war at all costs. it has been known for years that iran was pursuing nuclear weapons. the covert war that has been waged against iran by various actors cannot stop iran from getting nuclear weapons. nor can sanctions. iran will starve its population rather than give up its nuclear weapons program. israel has taken out the nuclear weapons programs of two muslim countries: iraq and syria. in the meantime, the west and the united states had let pakistan and north korea go nuclear.
Your desire to see the US destroy itself with another middle Eastern War borders on insanity. If Bibi plays Tojo, Iran will likely build a bomb and delivery system. How do you reconcile the destruction of the Persian Jews?
This is a repeat of the empty blustering from the UN, EU and US when the Arab League, headed by Nasser of Egypt and Syria, Iraq. lebanon and Jordan blockaded Israel access through the Red Sea, and massed huge armies in preparation to attack and destroy Israel in May-Jnje 1967. The US was " neutral in word and deed" until Israel won that war. The US always was and always will be pro Arab/Moslem. Its in US interests to do so. By the way, DeGaule of France was yet another back stabber in 1967. Watch out for these 'friends' There is nothing new now that's different from the way it was in 1948, 1956 1967 and 1973. Even the 'peace" treaty with Egypt was engineered by the US at the total expense of Israel. Some friend
"Jerusalem is not satisfied". Satisfying Jerusalem is the only constitutional obligation of the USA. All other functions are subsumed in this.
Ah yes, the old Israeli claim about the "terror attacks" they averted. Nice going boys. To accomplish these deeds you don't really need any agents, just a PR and propaganda guy sending emails.
Where would they "budge off to", PETER, seeing as how they are a Lebanese militia?
The Iranians have only a few thousand centrifuges enriching Uranium to 20%. It takes about a year to enrich to a level of some 90% as required for bombs. Since all the known centrifuges are under IAEA supervision, we know that Iran did not yet start to enrich for a bomb. Therefore, the 1 year Barak gives for Iran being capable of constructing their bomb should START running from the time IAEA are barred from inspection or see enrichment over 20%, not from now. Barak is smart, and if he is misleading he is doing it on purpose. But the rest of the world are not idiots either, unlike what Barak thinks.
The question for the US and Israel is how to protect the soft spots, especially since the invasion of Irak and Afghanistan.Will the US raze Iran in order ot to lose them?
From all appearances, Iran is a rational state, acting responsibly. As Mossad chief Pardo said, Iranian nukes do not pose an existential threat to Israel, and therefore to the West in general. Therefore, the US believes it should not go to war to stop Iran's nuclearization. Since it is desirable to not increase the number of states having nukes, the US will continue to help by "threats." But Israel should know that there will be no actual US action. And if Israel acts alone against Iran, the US will not intervene on her behalf. It will be a private Israeli affair. If Israel chooses to reveal this to the world, too bad, because then Iran will probably nuclearize quickly. Israel is now developing a "second strike" capability (via submarines), and this is sufficient to protect her against any feared surprise nuclear attack.
It's a long time until the American elections and hungering for another mideast war will not be popular with American voters. This is especially true since the last war (with Iraq) was mounted over WMD that never turned up. Now, here we are again seeking WMD and Israel lurking in the background as before providing "Slam Dunk" intelligence. I would not be surprised to see Israel trick the foolish Americans again, but will they be able to fool them with the same trick and the same scenario as they used before? Does Israel rule the world? If there is an American attack on Iran, then we would be forced to answer yes.
Why don't you come up with another tune, you've been playing this one for so long, it's gotten real boring. Once again you and your little buddies (Logios, Linthwaite, Mel!!!) are pushing the "jews run America" wagon again. Trying to drum up support for your jew hatred in the U.S. will not happen. Too many of us in high places and we also do have friends in even higher places because we are part and parcel of this country and because Israel and the U.S. share the same concerns, your pathetic attempt at trying to drive in a wedge just won't happen. Keep up the propaganda though, it's good for a laugh
Before darwish and his not caring, there was ISrael. During darwish and his not caring, there is Israel. After darwish and his not caring, there will be Israel.
"Lenin lives, lived and will live" To the one Israel is divine, to the other Lenin. Both pathetic.