• Published 01:13 28.12.09
  • Latest update 20:02 28.12.09

Iran unrest isn't a riot, it's an earthquake

Chants of 'Death to the Dictator,' indicate the riots are changing gears and aiming at the supreme leader.

By Zvi Bar'el Tags: Iran Israel news

To refer to what has been happening in Tehran over the last few days as "riots" is to gravely underestimate the power of the unrest erupting in the country since the June elections. The latest events are best described as further symptoms of an ongoing earthquake.

The country has seen major events since June - the death of Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, the reformists' spiritual leader; the heckling of a speech by former president Mohammad Khatami; the violence of the Ashura holiday; the show trials; the revelations about torture and executions. These factors have been coming together to create the perfect backdrop for the street protests that have refused to abate for nearly half a year.

The longer the demonstrations go on, the clearer it becomes that they're not aimed only at President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but also at Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The chants of "Death to the Dictator" and the placards with caricatures of the leader indicate that the protest movement is changing gears.

Khamenei's rule and the regime that he represents are not endangered yet, as Khamenei controls the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij paramilitary. The authorities' response seems to indicate the regime still sees suppression by force as the best remedy for discontent. The free use of live ammunition against protesters, which has claimed the lives of nine so far, is ample illustration of the official strategy. However, those casualties, and especially one of them, the nephew of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, are likely to inspire more rallies and demonstrations in the coming days.

These events may well turn out to be a critical standoff between the regime and the opposition, between theologians opposing Khamenei and the radical clerics supporting him, and between the anti-Ahmadinejad conservatives in the Iranian parliament and the president's supporters.

As the sides continue to face off, the possibility for dialogue between the parties dims, and the likelihood of administering the country through political maneuvering without direct military intervention grows slimmer by the day. The recent decision of the U.S. Congress to enact further sanctions on Iran is contributing to the gap between the rulers and the citizenry, but this decision may also work in the regime's favor in its bid it present the opposition as friends of the American foe. What's needed now from the Americans is restraint until the direction of the events becomes clear.

Iranian demonstrators hold posters of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran.

Photo by: (AP)
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  • 31. 0 0
    Mehmet is Right - let us be honest and also fair
    • toUnderstand-Poor
    • 05.01.10
    • 13:50

    Mehmet is correct, and the fake humanists of the west are wrong there must be pressure on the western government to apply their power fairly, and correct the gap between poor and rich, by leading the poor out of poverty... not spoiling the able bodied ones with welfare but rehabilitating all ghettos and slum...complicated task - enlightened policy needed no more support to the fascist, islamist erdogans and ahmedinejads who kill all resistance and enlightenment... non violence is a two way street... the islamic, jewish, hindi, christian, communist ignorance must end! nonVIOLENCE must rule!

  • 30. 0 0
    Gene Sharp's Real Iranian Non Violent Movement
    • fan of gene sharp
    • 05.01.10
    • 13:40

    Gene Sharp wrote the 1950s non violence recipe with Albert Einstein's introduction Gene's institute has been the Albert Einstein ... www.aeinstein.org Humanity needs the nonViolence of Gene Sharp and Ferenc Deak Some Ayatollahs are perfectly aligned with the nonviolence, but the majority has been underwriting the corrupt and barbaric ideas of old theologies, and act like the khomeinis and khamineis

  • 29. 0 0
    an iraninan
    • nasibeh
    • 30.12.09
    • 19:58

    non of you know Iranian and cant understand them by watching cnn and bbc.

  • 28. 0 0
    The protestors are doomed!
    • Turfseer
    • 29.12.09
    • 06:56

    For those who believe that the protestors in Iran have some chance of winning against this regime, think again! A few will be shot down dead in full view right on the streets but a majority will simply dissapear, never to be heard from again. This is the nature of the extremely dangerous Iranian regime now in power. They are ruthless and should not be underestimated. Unfortunately, the idea that sanctions can be effective against Iran is a pipe dream. Throughout the summer of 1941, the US sat on the sidelines as the Axis became more powerful. The US was in no mood to go against public opinion which was decidedly isolationsist. So they sat on their hands and Pearl Harbor was the result! Again, the mood in the West is not to confront Iran in a meaningful way (i.e. military force) and we are all at risk to experience an attack which would make Pearl Harbor look like a picnic.

  • 27. 0 0
    #15 "iran populated by ignorant and poor people", mehmet?
    • eric
    • 28.12.09
    • 23:08

    the poverty level may be more than in alot of western nations...but ignorant? lol...you're not very familiar with iranians; are you, mehmet?

  • 26. 0 0
    moral support and condemnation of the regime; YES!
    • eric
    • 28.12.09
    • 23:01

    money and arms? NO! military intervention? NO! these answers are adamant and unanimous among ALL elements of the iranian opposition.

  • 25. 0 0
    can u say cia
    • james
    • 28.12.09
    • 20:46

    it has happened before, it has been promised, the country is surrounded on all but one side by the world's chief belligerent. The israelis who own the american economy and government, keep talking s*&t, and we are all expected to believe that all of this unrest is somehow spontanious, please people, pull your collective heads out of your backsides

  • 24. 0 0
    At least in Iran........
    • Self hating Jew
    • 28.12.09
    • 18:46

    ......They take to the streets trying to make a change .Instead of analyze why don't you Israeli learn from them and go out to the street in the name of peace ?

  • 23. 0 0
    Iran's regime.
    • Catarin
    • 28.12.09
    • 18:17

    Iran's religious leaders have only themselves to blame for the present situation. As I recall, it was not that long ago that Persian young people were enjoying the fruits of being young and free: Dressing as they pleased, wearing makeup, socializing in nightclubs, listening to their music of choice. Then the current Ayatollah and his cohorts decided to make Iran a more conservative society and took away these freedoms. This was a recipe for disaster. Like the old song: "How you gonna keep 'em down on the farm after they've seen Paree?" When the regime announced it wanted to revert to the custom of men having four wives, the lecherous desires of these clergy surfaced. Their message was, "All for us, nothing for you." In order for Persians to accept Islam, the Shiite leaders of old had to leave many of the ancient Persian beliefs in place and work Shiite beliefs around them. Maybe young Persians don't want those beliefs; Persia already had a glorious history before Islam.

  • 22. 0 0
    Iranian Unrest
    • Doug Thomas
    • 28.12.09
    • 18:06

    God bless the protesters in Iran who are courageously sacrificing their own lives and safety to express their desire for a more honest and Democratic Government. They are heroes. We enjoy freedom in our United States that allow us to live in peace and tolerance. It is sometimes hard for some to understand why suppressive governments such as in Iran, cannot overcome pride and see the benefits of a more cooperative government that pursues prosperity for all, over hatred. Iran could enjoy economic and social gains where everyone wins if not so preoccupied with power and control of it's people. Yes we have crime, we have greed, we have corruption, but with it we have a system and due process that keeps our freedoms intact. People in our democracy are able to pursue education and creative ventures giving them hope for their own future. It boils down to the people in these dictator governments. What are they seeking that they cannot have in a democracy?

  • 21. 0 0
    Restraint?
    • Ehud
    • 28.12.09
    • 17:55

    US Restraint required in order not to play into the hand of the rulers? Typical pseudoliberal BS. The demonstrators held signs reading "Obama - you are either with us, or the regime". The demonstrators desperately yarn for moral support and pressure on the regime, 1938 and 1968, but Zvi Barel knows better what's good for them!

  • 20. 0 0
    Silence: Where are the Comrades?
    • ankhfnkhonsu
    • 28.12.09
    • 16:30

    The usual suspects are so silent here on the award winner for the greatest human rights abuser and "criminal" (as in "war") regime. And what about their heroic standard bearers like the great "Bolivarian" thug Chavez and his trolls like the "Bolivarian" drug lord who runs Bolivia? We know what the islamists think of this "resistance" While the people of Iran are being subjected to these monsters, the Left and their minions remain silent but they continue to work on their pet project Israel. Why is that? I smell mendacity! Perhaps once the army enters the fray, the popular revolution expands, and the 30th anniversary of the islamic revolution becomes its last, these poor misguided socialists will see the error of their ways.

  • 19. 0 0
    No one can stand in silence as civilians are slaughtered
    • No to silence
    • 28.12.09
    • 16:22

    "What's needed now from the Americans is restraint until the direction of the events becomes clear." Absolutely not. What is needed now is for all world leaders to openly condemn the Iranian government so the people of Iran know that we are on their side, that morality is on their side. We cannot stand idly by as civilians are being slaughtered in the streets by their own regime.

  • 18. 0 0
    to mehmet
    • Dan
    • 28.12.09
    • 15:59

    Mehmet, your generalization of your own population is not only ignorant but also elitist. I am not Turkish and I think Erdogan is doing great on foreign policy (but not quite as well internally). He may be pushing away from Israel, but time will tell: so will Europe and, if they know what's good for them, Egypt and Jordan... to start with. Israel is driving itself towards self-isolation and global isolation. If Erdogan leading the global boycott of Israel (until Gaza's seige is over) is lack of education to you, your enmity of it is lack of morals to many if not most. He had the guts to stand up to one of his most powerful and useful allies and tell them: we won't stand by complacently and watch you kill innocent civilians (his biggest foreign policy mistake was in Sudan - and his second biggest, in my opinion, is Iran... though that one's just political opinion)... there has been criticism and no violence, distancing, but no cutting of relations.

  • 17. 0 0
    Don't give the regime oxygen to maneuver
    • allang
    • 28.12.09
    • 15:20

    Sorry... but Zvi Bar'el is behind the times. The US has been modest in it's comments so far. Trying to assess the situation and not give the regime oxygen to maneuver. It's obvious where the situation is headed now. With the police refusing orders, protests turning violent and death in the streets... the reformists have found their essential revolutionary-core. Now... the time is ripe for the US to unleash a barrage of condemnation and stop treating the regime as the legitimate government of Iran. The regime's legitimacy is in question internally... why not de-legitimize them internationally as well.

  • 16. 0 0
    Western leaders should be quiet,
    • Lynn
    • 28.12.09
    • 15:06

    citizens of the free world should speak up for the citizens of Iran. It is the ordinary, everyday man who changes the world by participating in it. Blogs and Talkbacks are read by people all over the world, including the Iranians. Use them to show your support.

  • 15. 0 0
    CM USSR was not a democracy but was much more civilized
    • mehmet
    • 28.12.09
    • 15:06

    than Iran. In USSR women had the same rights as men and the oppression had a very different nature than Iran. Also, USSR regime has put a lot of emphasis to educate its people unlike Iran which is populated by ignorant and poor people. So comparing USSR to Iran is like comparing bananas and apples in my opinion. Iranian regime is ugly and dangerous and should be eliminated at any cost.

  • 14. 0 0
    In response to Mehmet.
    • sandra chitayat
    • 28.12.09
    • 14:56

    Actually the Iranian Revolution was very successful in that it DID educate a mass of young people, which is why you see them out in the streets to-day. Because they have been taught to think for themselves and want to apply that standard of knowledge. However the regime has other ideas and is not working to make jobs available to the young people for society to continue to evolve. W/their nuclear ambitions, they have taken it in another direction so that the nation as a whole has become hostage to this deranged ambition.

  • 13. 0 0
    CM.
    • sandra chitayat
    • 28.12.09
    • 14:01

    The only way to break the power of this regime, as G-d is my witness, is to break its hold on nuclear power. This is what gives them their arrogance and why the elections were rigged in the first place, because all the intelligent people in the country do not want to be isolated from the rest of the world. Whereas the Revolutionary Guard, the Qom establishment and the President want only to protect their nuclear ambitions and to install an even stricter version of Islam. So you are right, the people are very very brave and courageous and the West should not just sit idly by. This country is going to explode because the people won't take it. When will the West intervene? After how many deaths, how much torture, how many executions?

  • 12. 0 0
  • 11. 0 0
    Without clear leadership of the opposition the whole
    • Kris Lazar
    • 28.12.09
    • 13:26

    of the clerics will unite against a perveived as possible chaos coming with the demonstrations, not to mention that absolutely noone can afford a destabilized Iran, which is currently sourrounded by al-quaeda and the taliban.

  • 10. 0 0
    Zvi Barel, The next earthquake should be in Israel
    • Dutch
    • 28.12.09
    • 13:16

    Still, all those settlers must realize by now Israel can't give them what it doesn't have--sovereign rights to Palestinian land..... Thus they are no more Israeli citizens than I am by their residence on Palestinian soil. I imagine this will do much to quieten their rumble when push comes to shove. Dutch

  • 9. 0 0
    CM thanks for the insight.
    • Petra
    • 28.12.09
    • 12:14

    I wonder if the Iranians could expel the Shah, why not the mad mullahs of Tehran? Iran's alive w/ protest and IF they had arms, the current regime would be shot to death in public. Some who have deserted are going to the west w/ a lot of strategic info that may help bring the mullahs to their knees. Qom for example. We also know their oil refinery is in disrepair and one man who attends it does all the repairs and new parts fittings, despite the embargo. Many things could go wrong and Iran's leaders may soon know how many. The 'revolution' has just begun.

  • 8. 0 0
    to Mehmet
    • CM
    • 28.12.09
    • 11:54

    You may be right, the regim did nor say it's last word. I am from USSR, so I know what real fear of regim is. We would NEVER DREAM of protesting in streets. Iranians are way ahead of what we were before Gorbachev. So perhaps they will successed to take their own lifes into their own hand? At least I wish them good luck

  • 7. 0 0
    Ahmedinejad is relying upon the ignorance of its people
    • mehmet
    • 28.12.09
    • 11:12

    It is very similar to Tayyip Erdogan's populist agenda in Turkey. Both Erdogan and Ahmedinejad are islamic radicals who are in power because of their (and their teams') very effective use of populism applied on ignorant populace. They are very difficult to struggle against because their blood line is ignorance and radicalism which are plenty. So people who expect that Ahmedinejad will ve removed by these protests, I am afraid will be very disappointed in the end. Americans were always supportive of right-wing non-islamic governments in these countries during 60s 70s and 80s and these governments were succesful to keep the people uneducated and ignorant. But all these led to the islamic radicalism in the end... I wonder what Henry Kissinger thinks about this turn of events now.

  • 6. 0 0
    #3 neil, bibi said the exact same thing about the attack of 9/11
    • eric
    • 28.12.09
    • 10:51

    when asked his thoughts about the news. now isn't THAT a coincidence. but meanwhile, you're right...and not just israeli politicians. all countries need to give thought to everything they say and do regarding iran; for the same reason.

  • 5. 0 0
    Nobody should interfere. Or should they.?
    • Stephen
    • 28.12.09
    • 10:36

    You know those wonderful folk in Moscow,Beijing or even the vacationing president in Hawaii. The regime in Tehran,cares only for itself. The ordinary folk of Iran are decided and dedicated of ridding themselves of the chains that bind them to this sinking vessel. The problem is far more complicated than we in the West can even begin to contemplate. Its partly economic,partly religious and mostly about FREEDOM. Israel should keep well away, for any statement would only harm these incredible people, liking them to agents of the so called enemy. I salute the wonderful and great Persian nation for their tenacity and courage. Good day from civilized snowy Swiss Alps.

  • 4. 0 0
    Iranian unrest.
    • David Nigel Braham
    • 28.12.09
    • 10:35

    It is only a question of time before the demonstrators hold up placards saying,why are you injuring and killing your brothers and sisters? This might knock some sense into some of the riot police,which could lead to a backlash and fights amongst these forces,even the worst thugs have some type of reasoning and morality.

  • 3. 0 0
    Israeli politicians should remain silent
    • Neil
    • 28.12.09
    • 08:29

    I think Netanyahu was saying something recently to the effect that the recent events in Iran were beneficial for Israel. His remark was picked up by the media in Iran and used as ammunition against the opposition.

  • 2. 0 0
    next supreme leader will be even worse
    • watcher
    • 28.12.09
    • 08:20

    changing heads in muslim world is no solution! it is a hydra with uncountable heads each of it worse than the other! if israel wants a solution it will have to use weapons of mass destruction.im afraid that it just has not got the guts to do so!

  • 1. 0 0
    Iran
    • BIBI
    • 28.12.09
    • 07:10

    Israel is fishing in the dirty water.