Hezbollah chief's speeches sway Israeli opinion more than any Arab leader
Hassan Nasrallah is the first Arab leader in 30 years to affect the Israeli public through his rhetoric, according to military intelligence report.
By Amos HarelA high-ranking Israeli intelligence officer says that Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah was the first Arab leader in 30 years who, through his speeches, had the potential to affect the Israeli public. The officer, whose last name cannot be disclosed, studied Nasrallah's speeches during the Second Lebanon War, which began four years ago today, in the course of graduate studies at the University of Haifa.
Colonel Ronen, the chief intelligence officer for the Central Command of the Israel Defense Forces, previously held senior positions in the research division of Military Intelligence. The study analyzed 10 speeches by Nasrallah that were broadcast during the 34 days of warfare. Nasrallah's only public press conference during the war was on the first day of war, immediately following the abduction of IDF reservists Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser. After that he remained in bunkers, fearing an Israeli assassination attempt, and recorded speeches that were later broadcast by Arab television networks.
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Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah |
| Photo by: Archive |
Col. Ronen writes that the speeches were the only means by which Nasrallah could deliver his message to various audiences. In fact, he argues, apart from the rockets it lobbed into Israel the speeches were the only offensive weapon that Hezbollah used in the war. Fearing of an extensive Israeli ground offensive, the organization took a mainly defensive posture.
Col. Ronen says Nasrallah was the first Arab leader to affect Israeli public opinion since Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt, in the 1960s.
Nasrallah's speeches were widely covered in Israel during the 2006 war and drew harsh responses from senior political and military officials. Ronen says the rhetoric and content of the speeches were influenced by Nasrallah's understanding of the development of the war, based on information from the field. He argues that had Israeli decision makers analyzed these speeches in real time it could have altered the course of the war.
The main term that Nasrallah repeated throughout the war in his speeches was "sumud," Arabic for "standing firm" or "steadfastness." Ronen says that Nasrallah's rhetoric was aimed at supporting and strengthening the "steadfastness" in terms of social unity and solidarity among the Lebanese; among the Hezbollah combatants and the Shi'ite civilian population; and in the context of deterring Israeli attacks.
Nasrallah focused on what he took to be proof of the IDF's weakness. He prided himself on "surprises" such as the missile assault on an Israel Navy destroyer and tried to create a deterrent against an Israeli ground offensive. Israel's weakness, as Nasrallah saw it, was its concern about the economic damage and the loss of human life in Israel resulting from Hezbollah rockets.
"The Israelis are interested in blood and money," Nasrallah said in one speech.
Ronen writes that throughout the war Nasrallah tried systematically to undermine Israelis' confidence in their political and military leadership.
Nasrallah devoted a significant portion of his speeches to trying to justify the attack on Israel to the Lebanese public, after he misjudged - by his own admission - the force of the Israeli response. He argued that the soldiers' abduction that precipitated the war was legal according to the platform of the Lebanese government, to which Hezbollah belonged, and that the organization was forced to take action after Israel refused to reconsider a new exchange deal for the release of Lebanese prisoners it was holding.
Col. Ronen says that in his speeches Nasrallah "moved like a pendulum" between arguing that the war was the result of Israel's over-reaction to the abduction of Regev and Goldwasser as well as a desire to avenge its humiliation over its 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon, on the one hand, and on the other hand arguing that it was part of an American and Israeli plot to exterminate Hezbollah, a plot foiled by the abduction.
Nasrallah directed his bluntest attacks in his speeches at his domestic rivals, warning that he would settle scores with them and with the Arab states, which he accused of turning their backs on Hezbollah, "when the time was right."
Col. Ronen writes that since the war Hezbollah's resistance has held its ground and Lebanese unity has not been undermined.
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SIMPLE FACTORS WHY HE IS HONEST , HE WAS BORN IN SOUTH LEBANON,HIS FATHER, GRAND AND GREAT GREAT GRANDFATHERS WERE ALL BORN IN THE COUNTRY HE IS FIGHTING FOR. NOT IN RUSSIA OR EUROPE OR BFE...THAT IS THE REASONS HE IS HONEST....
oi nasralah you noob, there is no israeli soldiers on lebanese soil ,you dont have any reason to bark anymore ,surrender your weapons to lebanese army and you get out of lebanon to iran ,or else i go to lebanon and shave your beard ...
He is honest leader against the occupation Viva Nassrallah
He is a man of his word. He said: if the zionist entity doesn´t release all the lebaneese people it had abducted to their dungeons, he will arrest trespassing IOF´s. And so he did. The blood-soaked fangers of the IOF always lie, even to their own ones. Nasrallah doesn´t, thats why you can trust every word he says and thats why israel will lost every attempt to occupie Lebanon and take Litani.
and says so. None of the usual double talk for the gullible western media
Please give us an example of Nasrallah saying he wants to kill all the Jews. I don't blame you for thinking so because you are blinded by the fanatic Zionist ideology that doesn't differentiate between the Israeli apartheid regime and Judaism. Gues Guess
During Nasrallah recent visit to the summit in Damascus. He and his aides traveled in a modest car tracked by Israeli intelligence. At the Lebanese border, Syrian Internal Security secretly escorted him under armed guard to the Presidential Palace. Reports were circulated, the Israelis were ready to eliminate Nasrallah via a surgical drone strike. Senior US officials managed to dissuade the Israelis. A few weeks ago, Nasrallah was spotted by surveillance in Beirut. Nasrallah is a marked man... not because he makes flaming speeches. But because he employs war-like tactics for any and every occasion.
Sounds to me you are a follower of Hassan. Of course he hides,because he is afraid.And why he has been uttering with great pomp on reminding Israel how many special surprises he has for It.If one has surprises,one keeps them under wraps,not announcing it far and wide for all TO HEAR/READ. I think while being a dangreous man, still frightened,that may his life end once he really, put his face out of his parapet. That is his problem for it shows not only cowardice but feelings of Malice-aforethought full of hate eating at his innards.
I have all my family in Israel,not once were they impressed by his speeches more about the rockets that were lobbed,and distabilazing the families that were dispersed troughout the country. Funny how once these men leave their prior job,begin a new career and try to put the FEAR into the population by thei assumptions. Hassan like the rest of his Shiiate followers have one thing in common.Loud mouthed ,but when challenged they shut up(as he did when he asked for a ceasefire).What a sham it all is.
I have watched his diatribes on youtube. They really do hate us. There will never be peace until Hamas and Hezbollah are rejected by their followers. One way or another they must be diminished as the representaves of peace loving Palestinians/
YOU ARE MAD BECAUSE HE TELLS THE TRUTH AND NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH , THIS IS BY THE TESTIMONY OF YOUR LEADERS. ADMIT IT YOU GOT TO LOVE THIS MAN
They hate you for what you do, not for who you are!!
"They really do hate us"; you wonder why? I could direct you to a couple of books that give you plenty of ideas, or maybe you can have a very short trip to one of the checkpoints in the West Bank. Does the word "occupation" ring the bell? or maybe the number 62? Maybe "peace" is not in the hand of the "followers" but in the hand of the occupiers. Just maybe. Silly me, I know!
We are killing their sons and daughters. We learn our children to kill them. We take more and more of their land & water resources. We destroy their country and infrastructure. We make threats of yet more war every day and STILL they hate us? Unbeliable...
Nasrallah was the first Arab leader not to use rhetoric but use PRECISE and realistic language, and this is why the Arab audience actually stopped to listen. He never promised to "Obliterate Israel" or to destroy the IDF, he simply said he would put up a defensive fight Israel will never forget, and I think he succeeded. I am against religious movements like Hizbollah and Hamas, however, I can tell you these groups, Hizbollah in particular, have shifted somewhat the balance of power in the region for the first time. Hizbollah in defending Lebanon has accomplished what all other Arab regimes failed to do in the past few decades. Wishing Hizbollah or Hamas to vanish is a waste of time because they represent a huge popular base rejecting Israeli expansionism, hegemony and apartheid. They are an ideology more than an armed group. I suggest Israel look at itself in the mirror and address the ROOT cause of the problem before indulging in useless wishful thinking. The solution in diffusing religious fanaticism on both sides is the return to justice and human rights for all, starting with Palestinian right to self-determination and freedom. If Israel can't offer this then the One State Solution is the ONLY viable option, although painful. Peace.
What gave you the impression that we hate you ? You are lovely!!! How can anyone hate you? I am atheist and stand firmly behind this great man...he knows how to talk to you, bunch of murderers...
It's is quite hilarious every time someone speaks of Nasrallah half a dozen people must remind that he is hiding from a bunker while giving this speeches. Nasrallah himself already covered this, pointing out sarcastically about what a huge accomplishment it is for the most powerful army in the region waging a 33 day war to put the leader of a guerrilla force into hiding... lol. If this is the kind of accomplishment that is floating your boat, enjoy it, the lucid will see it for what it is... bitterness resulting from incompetence to achieve a REAL accomplishment in the war.
FOR YOUR INFO. MOST RESISTANCE LEADERS WERE IN HIDING NOT BECAUSE THEY ARE SCARED BUT BECAUSE THEY ARE TOO SMARET FOR THE ENEMY.
Me thinks yes. If he and Mashaal are not hiding,then why are they not seen in the open freely.Bunkers not necessarily but perhaps hiding in Iran? or protected by his BUTCH boddy guards? Stiil hiding is HIDING. Remember Mugniye?the same fate may happen to Hassan too.Think on it Leb dude.
Tonumber 12, LEBANESE DUDE . i'm a lebanese dude myself. YOU TOOK THE WORDS RIGHT OUT OF MY MOUTH. GOD blessyou .and thank you for reminding me that there are still a few good intelligent lebanese around .I'm with you brother .
About a different Nasrallah but the one i see on youtube right after the defeat of Israel in 2006 ( not being a military expert this is what I call accomplishment, I mean a REAL accomplishment) is not in a hole, he is actually talking in a public square addressing a crowd of hundreds of thousands despite Israel's threat to kill him if he did. He is still alive inst? That could actually be called Israeli "incompetence to achieve a REAL accomplishment. Just an idea. P.S Check a video called Nasrallah telling a joke. Again he is not in a hole. Funny joke!
Ross yes the IDF super army successfully put Nasrallah into hiding, now rejoice at this amazing accomplishment. Leslie, Nasrallah appeared only twice in public after the July War. Not that it matters if he is hiding or not. Would Barak live in a rat hole for the Israeli sake if it had come down tothat?
Its logical that people intent to listen and believe a man who keeps his words and fulfill his promises, most leaders announce a deal but when it comes to action they simply never keep the Cigar, so how can the Israeli's believe the Sheppard who lied about the wolf many times, when Sayed Nassrallah kept his promises and repeatedly proved his honesty, (When you speak the truth and become an Honest person even the sky listens). you have my empathy Sephardi Israeli's they are dragging you deep.
The fact he made speeches was. The only thing that impressed the ordinary Israeli was that what he threatened happened and that he admitted he'd miscalculated the extent of our reaction. Admitting miscalculation? Doing what you say you'll do? We're no longer used to either from our leaders.
Written the actual truth.It was not so much the speeches that didturbed the Israeli population(they had no time for such frivolities)But the fact the lobbing of the rockets and the families who disperssed all over the place.
Broadcasting from a bunker is embarrassingly ironic for such a supposedly fearless leader of the mighty Hezbollah. Nasrallah must look a little silly thrusting his arms into the air and shouting curses against Israel on the movie set with the director of photography just two meters away and his makeup artist and lighting crew standing nearby, inwardly giggling.
Just to reassure you, no bloodshed really. They did overwhelm the idiot S. Hariri's amateurs in no time and beautifully!!! I was there...Field commanders work from bunkers rather than following the stock market during wars... if you know what I mean HAHAHAHAHAHAH
Hassan Nusrullah is leader of alll Mulims
If Israel is serious about a real long lasting peace, it should reach out and try to make peace with people like Sayed Hassan and Ismael Hanneyah and not the corrupt individuals such as the one in the Mukatah in Ramallah. My belief which is based on personal experience is that Israel wants land without people which has been the case so far, but it is short sighted vision. It won't last..believe me.
that they all don't want peace and the Pal leadership the PA and HAmas kill Pal arabs and are corrupt. vote in better people
Most important for us is the opinion of arab and moslem young generation concerning Hezbollah 's Ideology. The ideology that can be ilustrated in restoring of arabs dignity and freedom sothat they can create the right environment for democracy and development. We are supporting all movements and organization working in the same direction.
hisbolair has no democracy at all. nazalnada is only interested in staying no1.
Do you like public executions,stonings hangings or just out of hand bullets in the head or rape of women before execution so they wont go to heaven etc? Very dignified Shiite behaviour Nasrallahs backers.
"hisbolair has no democracy at all. nazalnada is only interested in staying no1" Are you sure you are not talking about Netanyahu?.
Hasn’t used on civilians cluster and white phosphorous bombs not to mention bulldozers. Guess he's not dignified enough plus he's got a long way to go in his understanding of freedom and democracy.
So Peter SM, when was the last stoning for adultery or when was a rape victim murdered in Lebanon? You seem to not understand Lebanon at all...no Israeli understands Lebanon which is a major problem--for you. I despise Nasrallah but people like you give me a good laugh. One day, you will be able to separate Lebanon from the pan-Arab thinking...and realize not all Arabs think alike and commit the same actions. At the end of the day, Israel was doing the bombing and destruction in 2006 (and 1982, etc.), so yes, Nasrallah will get his support, albeit temporarily.
Netanyahu then, no? Your PM is the prime example of wanting power. Look yourself in the mirror....
He, the towell headed monster is nothing but a ultra fundamemtal pig of the first order. Good speeches makes not a good person and that his nothing but what I just called him more like.
Makes him nothing but a hypocritical bully to the suffering masess.That some follow him is tragic.But then their problem not ours.It takes all sorts in this world,and this CRIMINAL is just like Hitler reconstituded.
Bombing and destruction always followed Lebanon based attacks on Israel. There were no problems between Israel and Lebanon till it became a base to attack Israel. PS Lebanon sent its army to join the Pan Arab war of annihilation on Israel. Is that Pan Arab enough for you?
Nasrallah has the qualities that the Israeli establishment does not want in an Arab leader. He is smart, committed, serious, and he's not corrupt. No wonder people in Israel and other parts of the world take him seriously. Love it.
Agree. I would also add he is confident, fearless, extremely perceptive and has been successful hostilities wise against Israel. A list of traits that would indeed make people stand up and take notice when he speaks.
he's a true Lebonese patriot that's blessed with a sense of humor ... which infuriates his enemies and endears himself to young people throughout the middle east all the more. No country (or entity) in the region has such a leader.
I always respect men that means what they say. During the last Lebanon war he always accomplished what he said in his speeches. That's why Arabs like him and that's why Israelis fear him. Whether he is my enemy or my friend, he deserves to be respected by all Israelis.
:O)
Just like your Dan Halutz did (only his, 400 feet beneath the Kiryat, was probably more well appointed, and stocked with Golan wines cherry tomatoes, and perhaps even a stock ticker). Both Nasrallah and Dan were prudent men.
How unique for a government to care about these things! What else is a government supposed to worry about. Evidently in the Muslim world -- according to Nasrallah and Ahmadinejad -- governments are supposed to seek death and destruction for its peoples
"Heavily Distorted Translations of Hezbollah leader's speeches swayed Israeli opinion, study shows" And who did the 'Study"? The people who provided the highly biased and often fanciful translations of the ravings of Hassan Nasrallah. Hassan Nasrallah and the Israeli Right, mutually beneficial, mutual supporters and comrades in crime.
It says he moved like a pendulum between his explanations on why the war happened; that he directed his speeches also at his soi dissant Lebanese opponents and Arab states. What exactly could Israel have done differently if analyzing his speeches in real time? Attach the answer, if there is one, to Winograd's report.
The article reports Ronen saying that if the military had analyzed the speeches in real time, it could have changed the course of the war. But no specifics are given, In fact, no hint even of whether the change would have been good. Today's so-called reporters don't give important information because it never occurs to them to ask.
Quite well said in your own way to corresponding Fortuana's Frankly what was Ronens point here out of the blue i say? To put the fear into the Israelis?Nice try,but the Israeli population is quite innured to having to endure the constant attacks,be it VERBAL or physical