Harel and Issacharoff / Who wins and who loses in Shalit deal?
Israel puts on a unified front, Hamas members meet negotiators and Abbas faces challenges to his position.
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff Tags: Israel news1. Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried hard Monday to lower public and media expectations of an imminent deal for Gilad Shalit, via a statement issued by his bureau and remarks to the Likud Knesset faction.
This is being conducted under a thick veil of secrecy, replete with psychological warfare and false media reports. It's hard to guess exactly how long it will take, but reports that Hamas officials will fly to Damascus after their meetings in Cairo mean it probably won't happen by this Friday.
What is notable is the unified front Israel's leadership is presenting - in contrast to the disputes between Netanyahu's predecessor, Ehud Olmert, and their mutual defense minister, Ehud Barak. If Barak and Netanyahu approve the deal, they will presumably press the cabinet hard to do the same.
2. Hamas. The Hamas bulletin Al-Risala claimed Monday that the exchange will take place after Id al-Adha ends next Monday. Al-Arabiya television said a Hamas delegation will meet with the German mediator in Cairo Tuesday. This delegation differs from those Hamas sent to previous rounds of talks. Those consisted almost exclusively of senior members of its military wing, which actually holds Shalit. The current delegation also includes representatives of Hamas' political wing, from both Gaza and Damascus. That may indicate that Hamas wants to do a deal - and perhaps to curtail the influence of Ahmed Jabari, the military wing's hard-line leader.
3. The Palestinian Authority. Senior PA officials voiced fears in recent days that a deal would irreversibly undermine Fatah in its domestic rivalry with Hamas. Admiration for the Islamic group, as the only party able to win the release of Palestinian prisoners, would rise. That might even lead Hamas to agree to new PA elections. PA President Mahmoud Abbas would then face a serious challenge to his already weakened position.
But a deal could also have other dramatic consequences. Relatives of Marwan Barghouti, a senior Fatah leader jailed in Israel, claimed Monday that he would be freed as part of the deal. If so, he is likely to become Fatah's next leader and its candidate for PA president. He is also likely to bring about a reconciliation with Hamas that would enable new elections to be held. That would upset many veteran Fatah members, who are not Barghouti fans.
Barghouti's release would also entail risks for Israel. Just last week, he declared that he still favors "resistance" - that is, a resumption of anti-Israel terror.
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Jailed Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, who may be part of the prisoner exchange deal in the Shalit negotiations. |
| Photo by: (Reuters) |
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Wouldn't it be visionary if Barghouti were to emerge as the next non-violent Mandela. Is it mere imagination that, in fact, Israel and Barghouti are already well advanced towards this goal. Enjoy a beautiful day. Moishe (Thomas) Goldstein
Perhaps Bibi has concluded that Abbas will never be able to make a permanent deal - a not unreasonable argument. In that case, releasing Barghouti and shaking up the PA establishment to create a credible leadership is the right move for Israel. If Barghouti takes an extremist stance it'll get him nowhere, which is where we are today anyway. If he wants a real deal, he'll have the power to make one. The question is, is Bibi really angling for this? Or is he just in damage-control mode without any vision, as usual?
If these releases lead to a Barghouti led Hamas-Fatah reconciliation, then a slight chance for negotiations leading to something emerges. The first good news in a while. Maybe Mitchell has been moving things. Or perhaps this 30 seconds of optimism will disappear as quickly as prior ones.
Your point is well taken. I just think that we should emphasize the positive. And certainly there will be a debate, before anything happens. The reason why Israel removed from Gaza, and this whole incident happened in the way that it did, was because of pikuah nefesh, to try to save lives after these terrible bombings. This with the blessing of the top rabbis. It did not solve the problem. The IDF knows how to go after them if they so much as try again. That is not the issue. The issue is that Israel will still have to either deal w/ or confront its neighbors. Then it becomes a political issue as well as a moral one. Perhaps we shall have to rely on G-d's providence, which is in the Torah, as well as on our own miltary strength. I do not have all the answers, but certainly it is a worthy point. I still believe that if you do one mitzvah, Hashem will help w/the rest. Naive emunah.
There is no "winning" for Israel when an IDF man is captured. The best course of action is to make a quick deal and minimize the damage. The worst course of action is to do what Israel has done in Shalits case. Let it drag on for years, demonstrating Hamas resolve and Israeli impotence, and then making a deal far worse than they could have had initially. It should be remembered that Shalit is no innocent civilian. He is a member of the military that has recently killed hundreds of Palestinian civilians. As part of Israels retribution for Shalits capture, the IDF bombed the home of a senior Hamas commander, wiping out his entire extended family. By this method, Israel attemts to teach lessons, dripoing with blood. It is a miracle that Shalit is still alive. It is a tribute To Hamas that they are not affected by Israels bloody attempts at lesson teaching.
although giving out explosives is a bit silly. But the idea of shipping the settlers back from whence they cae. That is an excellent idea. But I will make this one proviso, those who do not have second passports don't have to return to their country of origin. Meanwhile lets hope Gilad Shalit is returned safe and sound, and those held by Israel without trial in administrative detention are also returned home to their families.
No comparison whatsoever between Barghouti and Teital... one is an open freedom fighter for the cause of his people, the Pals... while the other is a devious semi-psychotic criminal, who could have been lauded by the Ku Klux Clan...
The Talmud saying - he who saves one life saves the world- is well known, but what about the reverse? He who takes a life unnecessarily - what then? Does the Talmud have anything to say about the killing of innocent civilians, for example? I'd be interested to know.
We understand that Hamas is a genuine Islamic liberation movement well deep-rooted and secretive. But with the state of misery of the people of Gaza and the diabolic means that Israel uses, one would have concluded that Israel would have been able to locate and liberate its famous world-class prisoner long time ago. Israel went to an precedented level of craulity in dealing with Gaza, using wars, sabotages and a crippling siege, with Egyptian collision and Arab silence. All that seems with no effect. Hamas is showing lucidity knowing the current balance of power. But, extermists are waiting their time.
"Relatives of Marwan Barghouti, a senior Fatah leader jailed in Israel, claimed Monday that he would be freed as part of the deal. If so, he is likely to become Fatah's next leader and its candidate for PA president. He is also likely to bring about a reconciliation with Hamas that would enable new elections to be held. That would upset many veteran Fatah members, who are not Barghouti fans." Of course the old gaurd are not fans of Barghouti - he's competent and popular. In terms of Pal politics it would be a wholly positive development. The corrupt old gaurd would finally depart the scene. The Hamas/Fatah rivalry would be reduced alot. Elections would go ahead. Israel would have a much more capable and credible negotiating partner.
Freeing unrepentant murders like Barghouti would not just raise the fortunes of HAMAS and militant fractions within Fatah but also of the militant position within the Arab sphere. How can one free killers like Barghouti but not also free Yaakov (Jack) Teitel and every other anti-Arab wacko from Israel's prisons too? Freedom for Arab killers and Jew killers alike? No. Killers, especially un-reformed and willing (as Barghouti openly boasts) can't be given freedom to kill. Our Sages of blessed memory would never have supported a trade of one life (Shalit) for the freedom of killers and hostage takers to murder and kidnap again. If Barak or Netanyahu support such a trade I'd suggest instead we just trade Barak or Netanyahu (let them decide among themselves) for Shalit. The only acceptable deal would be to trade Shalit for a lifting of the blockade and a limited amnesty for Shalit's kipnapers: no more and no less. Only such a deal is in the interest of the people of Gaza and Israel.
ghutti&Co . Surrender Tzars are rock-solidly embedded in the Israeli politics . It goes without saying they don't travel on buses
of course, gilad will be freed. many, many will be happy and relieved. the average person's relief will be mixed with anguish. once again, terror will be rewarded. the more important question is the possible undisclosed parts of this deal.
Do not pay for Shalit with the blood of future dead Israelis or with the life of another hostage.
Trading away murderers, freezing settlements, failing to bomb Iran, what's not to like?! Here's what I recommend: 1) Bibi should ship settlers back to Poland. All 600,000. 2) Bibi should release all terrorists and give them explosives as a "good will gesture." 3) Delay bombing Iran indefinitely in order to show Ahmadinejad that we love him. 4) Join Meretz. They know how to do it. In fact, why not join Meretz, Peretz and Shmeretz? The right wing and Likud rebels must remain quiet while Bibi caves. SOMEONE in Bibi's office is pretending to be a leftist. Someone in Bibi's office is pretending to be a Likudnik. And SOMEONE is pretending to be Prime Minister. Who could that be?
It may not be murdering Israeli civilians as he used to. Or it may be just that. It is unknown.
Give him time to be able to come home, to cry, to adjust, to deal with the trauma. Don't harass him and his family, respect the fact he has changed in captivity, that his mental health may be in shambles, and that his family will need to make a very long, painful work to help him get on with his life. This experience of three and a half long years in solitary confinement, is devastating for any human being. Have mercy, and don't push your Chutzpah on him to get the exclusive iterview your boss wants. Let him alone, let hime breathe, let him live.
Then you'll have plenty of time to think about it. Now, it's premature.
In the Talmud, is it not written that to save one life is to save the whole world? I hope that Hashem will give the necessary wisdom to all those involved to solve this miserable conundrum. A thorough analysis, especially as concerns the PA's fortunes.