Hamas influence in Gaza is growing
Hamas is hoping the Shalit deal could help Gaza recover from last winter's Operation Cast Lead.
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff Tags: Israel newsWhat can we learn from the state's response Sunday to a High Court of Justice petition demanding the publication of which Palestinian prisoners would be freed in exchange for captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit? Not much.
The state prosecution says that both parties have committed to keeping a lid on the details as long as negotiations are underway. The new information, to the extent that there is any, relates to the number of Palestinian prisoners Israel is officially saying will be released in a deal: 980, in two stages: 450 heavy-duty prisoners whom Hamas wants freed, and another 530 terrorists whom Israel will select "as a gesture to the Palestinian people."
Throughout the negotiations, Hamas spokesmen insisted that 1,400 prisoners would be released in a swap. Has Israel gotten Hamas to fold on this demand? That's doubtful. For instance, the state's response doesn't make it clear whether the 530 prisoners include Palestinian women and youths. More prisoners may be released after the first 980. And the state's response doesn't even mention the hundreds of prisoners Israel is likely to release in the future, in a bid to furbish the image of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
In other words, if the Shalit deal goes through, more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners will be released in the coming months, possibly close to 2,000.
While Israel is declaring its commitment to keeping a lid on the swap talks, Hamas has become the primary source of information about the negotiations, especially its top leaders in Syria.
One of those leaders, Mohammed Nazzal, said from Damascus Sunday that a dispute remained only over a few of the prisoners Hamas wants released, and the Arab press has reported that the German mediator is slated to return to Gaza for another round of talks with Hamas leaders there.
An analysis of the media coverage indicates that the two sides have reached the heart of the matter.
The talks - which are expected to resume Tuesday, after the Muslim holiday of Id al-Adha - are now focusing on possible solutions to remaining disagreements, such as punitive action for some of the prisoners and deportation for others. With all the expectations that have been generated, among Israelis and among Palestinians, both sides have a supreme interest in closing a deal soon. The German mediator, who has proven his outstanding ability to figure out each side's lines in the sand, has moved the negotiations to a point at which there is only a single proposal on the table.
Whoever rejects it risks bringing ending negotiations, which could lead to military escalation.
The Hamas organizational structure requires collective decision making. The Arab media have reported that the Gaza leaders have in effect accepted the deal, leaving the ball in the court of Khaled Meshal, the Hamas leader in Damascus.
Hamas is hoping the Shalit deal could help Gaza recover from last winter's Operation Cast Lead and the Israeli economic blockade; it is either hoping to include a clause requiring that the Gaza checkpoints be reopened or is at least assuming that once Shalit is returned, Israel will have to give in to increasing international pressure and ease the blockade.
And though Meshal may have his own considerations beyond those of the Gazan leaders, it's doubtful that he would be able to come up with a new deal at such a late stage of negotiations.
In addition to Hamas' demands, Israel must also take into account the challenges faced by Abbas. In contrast to some media assessments, Israeli intelligence officials say the Shalit deal poses no danger of Hamas taking over the Palestinian Authority.
Abbas, they say, is indeed considering resigning as PA president, and a deal would tarnish his public image and require Israel to take steps to repair it. The intelligence officials say Abbas has generated an atmosphere of imminent departure, which is likely to become more pronounced after the Shalit deal is finalized. But there is still a long way between that and the collapse of the PA.
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Palestinian stone-throwers in Gaza. |
| Photo by: (Reuters) |
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Israel left Gaza, expected the Palestinians to be like other civilized people, build a nice, civil, society, make lives from themselves. Had that happened, there would have been no problems, and it would have been a model to expand. Instead Hamas took carefully saved business sites and even synagogues, and turned them and other areas into places to launch rockets into civilian area of Israel, worked full time to smuggle rockets into Gaza from Egypt, by ship from Iran, etc. Had they not, Egypt would probably have an open border with Gaza by now, and Israel is careful about what Hamas gets. Don't look to Israel to be the source of everything good for Gaza, but let fellow Arabs in Egypt be the source, but even they don't trust the Palestinians enough to open things up. Bottom line, as an American, not an Israeli, I would feel badly but wouldn't trade one Hamas killer/terrorist back to Hamas in return for Gilad Shalit. Time for Gaza to learn to be civilized!!!
Mark, Hamas running the PA was the Israeli main goal since they murdered Prime Minister Yitshaq Rabin. How else could they tell the world "No one for Negotiations on Palestinian side". Zionist Entity is built in such a way that they can't live legally in Peace with the rest of the region.
I could say that the only terrorists in the Middle East are the Israelis. I resent the use of the word terrorist to anybody who fights against the illegitimate Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory. Haaretz, and their contributors, should be much more careful with the language used.
Same with right -wing Israelis. The more the Arabs become aggressive, the more the Israeli right grows, and the left shrinks.
The rise of Hamas influence in ALL of the occupied territories has been predictable and predicted. One did not have to be a genius to understand that the policies of the Government of Israel could not have been better crafted to promote the growth of Hamas were they intended to do so. With the destruction of all hope for peace, which Palestinian faction wins?
proved? that rockets are a mere tactical threat.they are of less concern then the bus bombings inflicted on us. if the rockets cause major damage we would then have the credibility and support to answer in kind.
the war early this year has pointed the realities to hamas in technicolour.they will fire rockets now and then.but they know the limits they must not breach. for us post goldsmith we have now been to some extent shackled.but our future response would depend on the circumstances.hamas does not have a bright future nor does it have a range of options.
If Hamas thinks Israel will ever under any circumstance raise the siege voluntarily, they are fantasizing. The siege predated the Hamas' election and will last long after Hamas goes the way of the Dodo so long as Israeli politicians have a say. Only Egypt or the US can lift the Siege, unless the Royal Navy is so inclined. No one else would dare. Israel would fire on anybody else.