Gaza offensive clouds chances for Shalit deal

The start of Israel's offensive in Gaza illustrates why the Israel Defense Forces chief, General Gabi Ashkenazi, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak strongly recommended trying to reach an agreement that would bring about the release of abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit from his Palestinian captors in recent months. Currently it seems the operation has nullified chances such a deal may take place in the near future.

Will Hamas make use of the soldier as part of its psychological warfare against Israel? Experts on negotiations say any such use will be indirect. No video of Shalit will be made resembling the one in which Hamas displayed captured IDF soldier Nachshon Wachsman in 1994. Instead, they will hint to the media that his life is in danger because of the situation. Hamas' main aim in holding onto Shalit is to use him as a pawn to bring about the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. Officials believe Hamas also feels a religious obligation to preserve their captive's life.

Any intentional harm done to Shalit will prompt a harsh Israeli response and all involved in such a scenario will be considered "dead men walking" by Israeli security forces. After the 2000 lynching of two Israelis in Ramallah by a crowd of Palestinians the IDF, headed by Ehud Barak, hunted down 15 of the Palestinians who participated in the hanging. If such an incident were to repeat itself in Gaza, it is believed the IDF won't make do with arresting and trying those responsible.

There is also a manner of honor involved. A prisoner swap is a matter of principle for Hamas. Any harm caused to Shalit will hurt chances of their release. In any case, the window of opportunity to obtain Shalit's release, too, may have passed.