Expectations vs. reality / Barak may be forced to backtrack

As expected, yesterday's report that the Israel Defense Forces has no intention at this stage of deploying the Iron Dome system to protect Sderot against rocket attacks sparked emotional reactions in the leaders of Israeli communities near Gaza. As early as last night, lobbying efforts commenced in an attempt to reverse the decision. It is quite likely that the pressure will result in orders to the IDF to deploy the air defense system in Sderot as soon as possible.

The story of Iron Dome reflects the great divide between the expectations of the civilians living near the Gaza Strip and the plans of the defense establishment. The political and military leaders were outrageously slow in responding to the continual rocket attacks in the south. Only after more than six years of rocket fire did then-defense minister Amir Peretz manage to push forward the project that is now reaching fruition under his successor, Ehud Barak.

Statements made by Barak and Peretz, himself a Sderot resident, made the residents feel that their suffering would soon be over, with the rocket interception system providing near-hermetic air defense. In view of the rapid progress at Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, it was predicted, rather optimistically, that the first battery would be delivered by March and declared operational by May.

In spite of the calm that Operation Cast Lead brought to the south, Sderot needs Iron Dome. The system will boost the residents' sense of security and serve as the basis for Israel's deterrence. The IDF has different considerations from the residents, though. The military would like time to analyze the effectiveness of Iron Dome and training with the system, rather than rushing it into operation in a way that may encourage Palestinian terror groups to challenge it on a daily basis.

A delay would also give Rafael time to build more batteries, making it possible to deploy them quickly if necessary. In addition, some top officers don't view Iron Dome as part of an Israeli response to isolated Qassam attacks, saying it should be reserved for circumstances like the heavy barrages that the south sustained during Cast Lead.

These arguments annoyed Amir Peretz yesterday. Iron Dome is his toy, almost the sole positive memory from a terrible tenure at the Defense Ministry. The success of the trials last month was a good chance for him to rightly claim public credit. Peretz has suspected for years that the army top brass doesn't understand how essential it is to provide the civilians with an adequate response to the constant threat of rocket fire.

Peretz rallied local leadership in the south to demand that the defense establishment explain itself. For Barak and his deputy, Matan Vilnai, this is no small headache. What makes it even worse is that it comes from an old Labor Party rival.

The final decision will be up to the defense minister, who will have to take budgetary considerations into account. But if the Negev is subjected to regular, even if limited, showers of Qassams this spring, Peretz will probably have the upper hand, leaving Barak to order the army to speed things up and put Iron Dome into action.