Does Israel really want to enforce settlement freeze?

The release of a leaked internal Israel Defense Forces memo, outlining the army's plans for destroying structures in the settlements during the West Bank construction freeze, is a real victory for the settlers. The IDF plan has energized opponents of the settlement freeze and spurred a competition among right-wing leaders over who can better express shock (the head of one council used the term "war crime" yesterday, while a Knesset member compared the plan to rape, using explicit detail).

Moreover, the memo - which was leaked to the settlers, who then leaked it to the media - has brought to the surface tensions between the IDF and the police, and shown the army the extent to which the settlers are aware of its activities.

It's no secret that the security forces are not very enthusiastic about implementing the freeze. In a rare interview, IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi told Army Radio last week that it was preferable for soldiers not to be at the forefront of clashes with settlers. Meanwhile, Public Security Minister Yitzhak Aharonovitch rushed to announce that the police counter-terrorism unit would not participate in home demolitions - contrary to the contents of the leaked memo (but he conveniently forgot to mention that most of the evacuation enforcement would be handled by other police units).

That leaves Defense Minister Ehud Barak as the highest-ranking figure involved in implementation of the construction moratorium. Barak was deeply impressed by a Haaretz op-ed by Yehuda Ben Meir last month, declaring that the state has the right to direct the army to use force to enforce its sovereignty and the will of the people. The defense minister has been handing out copies of the article to top IDF officials, to reinforce his position.

There is an element of hypocrisy in the agitated appeals of the right wing, which wants the freeze to fail. It's in the interest of the right for the army and the police to implement this policy with their hands tied. It is worth noting that the memo states that the IDF has received no information about the use of arms to prevent evacuation or demolition. Barak is right on this point: If the settlers really want to keep IDF efforts to a minimum, they won't employ force in their protests.

The bottom line depends on the politicians, not on the army or the police. Does the government intend to enforce the freeze, or will this be just another directive that is not carried out - like the promises every government has made for a decade about evacuating illegal outposts? Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip because that was the goal Ariel Sharon had set, and to reach it, he was ready to trample anything that stood in his way, including the will of the Likud voters.

It's not at all certain that Benjamin Netanyahu sees things in a similar way. It seems as if the prime minister primarily wants quiet - from the settlers and from Washington. If he gets what he wants, not a single structure in the West Bank will be demolished. It's always possible to waste time with High Court of Justice petitions, legal deliberations and equivocation in the field. In that case, the plans for implementing the moratorium will remain within the realm of the theoretical.

Another point worth noting concerns that fact that the IDF memo was leaked to the settlers in the first place. After so many years of "togetherness," it looks like they know everything about the IDF in the West Bank; indeed the leak just verifies that.

It will be interesting to see whether the chief of staff will put as much effort into finding those who leaked the document as he does into tracking down and punishing any officer who dares to speak to the press.