Diskin: Gaza going back to clan rule

Shin Bet security service head Yuval Diskin yesterday expressed his reservations about a broad Israeli ground operation in the Gaza Strip in the near future. The Israel Defense Forces has recently stepped up it preparations for such a contingency recently.

However, Diskin is of the opinion that Israel should not take action at a time when Palestinian infighting is ongoing.

"I certainly think that we must prepare a contingency plan," Diskin told reporters in a meeting with the press in Tel Aviv yesterday. "There may be a specific situation in which there is a need to act, whether we like it or not, but we must take into account the power struggle that is going on between Fatah and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

"I believe that in any situation, we are better off with a force that balances extremist Islam. If we do not wish to ruin everything, we should not intervene at this moment," the head of the Shin Bet added.

Diskin stressed that Israel must consider the "day after" of any operation.

"Let us assume that we reoccupy the entire Gaza sTrip, and we carry out there another operation like Defensive Shield [Jenin 2002]. Then what? It is highly likely that the Palestinian Authority will collapse, will be unable to provide services to the population, and we will have to set up anew the civil administration.

On the other hand, if we do not stay there for long, and there is no one to impose order in our place when we depart, terrorist attacks will very quickly start again."

However, the Shin Bet chief said that if it becomes clear that the confrontation between Fatah and Hamas is losing steam, and that Hamas continues to grow stronger and improve its terrorist infrastructure in the Gaza Strip, then Israel will have to weigh seriously a ground offensive there.

An improvement in the Egyptians' ability and effectiveness in curtailing the smuggling from Sinai to the Gaza Strip will diminish the need for Israel to carry out such operation, Diskin said.

The major problem facing Israel in the territories, Diskin believes, is the collapse of government in the PA. This is particularly evident in the Gaza Strip, where "there is a return to the clan. Clan loyalty is now more evident than loyalty to any group."

The clan influence, Diskin said, is directly linked with the desire to seek revenge for the dead from the recent internecine clashes, and it poses an obstacle to reaching a cease-fire, even if the leadership of Fatah and Hamas appears to be interested in an accord.

According to the Shin Bet chief, the Palestinians are close to agreeing on a unity government, mostly because PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas "prefers unity over a confrontation."

In his assessment, Diskin said Hamas has a qualitative edge over the quantitative advantage of Fatah. This is particularly evident, he said, in terms of the training Hamas gunmen receive, compared to their rivals.

Diskin said the Fatah leadership in the Gaza Strip has concluded that the only way for them to survive is to infuse their men with fighting spirit.

Diskin described the struggle in the Gaza Strip as "historic" and that the stakes were the "future form of Palestinian society," which may "also have an effect on Israel in the long run."

Offering a bleak assessment, Diskin rejected the possibility that there is a chance for a long-term political compromise between Israel and Hamas. "From a Hamas point of view, in the long term there is no argument over the impossibility of a settlement with Israel. As far as they are concerned, the entire area of the State of Israel is a waqf [a religious trust] on which there can be no compromise, and it must be restored to Muslim control. There could be temporary arrangements with Israel. But there is no room for ideological flexibility," the Shin Bet chief claimed.

Diskin also referred to the reports last week that Fatah gunmen arrested Iranian military experts in the Gaza Strip. He said that the matter was examined closely by the Shin Bet but there was no evidence confirming the veracity of the reports.