• Published 01:43 09.10.09
  • Latest update 04:38 09.10.09

ANALYSIS / Third intifada unlikely, despite Jerusalem tensions

But a single IDF bullet fired at a Palestinian demonstrator could turn the scenario upside down.

By Avi Issacharoff Tags: Mahmoud Abbas Israel news Palestinians West Bank

Nine years and 10 days after the outbreak of the Al-Aqsa intifada, tensions gripping the Temple Mount could once again lead to the eruption of violent clashes between Palestinians and Israelis.

Yet a third intifada would seem inconceivable now, for several reasons - West Bank Palestinians are tired, their economy has been improving, and the Palestinian Authority itself has no stomach for a worsening situation.

Still, it's hard to tell where Friday's demonstrations in the territories will lead. Perhaps the Temple Mount events will be limited due to the age restriction Israel has imposed on the worshippers. But disturbances are expected in areas near Jerusalem such as the Anata and Qalandiyah refugee camps, and Ras al-Amud. Defense officials hope that demonstrators won't be killed or seriously injured, as this could cause any riots to spread.

Perhaps Israel's assumption that the Palestinians are not interested in setting the West Bank on fire is accurate, but one soldier firing at stone throwers or one demonstrator shooting at Israeli soldiers could turn the picture upside down.

Several groups and individuals have been inciting the Palestinians against Israel in recent days. The head of the Islamic Movement's northern branch, Sheikh Ra'ad Salah, said this week he was ready to become a martyr to protect Al-Aqsa. Hamas declared an "anger day" and urged its people to demonstrate support at Al-Aqsa. Leading Muslim religious leaders and various PA politicians have been persuading the sleepy West Bank population to come out in protest. Even Fatah, branded a traitor for its response to the Goldstone report, feels it must prove its patriotism.

This explains the Fatah Central Committee's decision on Wednesday to call a general strike in the territories and urge its supporters to take part in the demonstrations.

The circumstances are reminiscent of September 2000, when the intifada began - the negotiations are stuck (or haven't been resumed) and the Palestinian public is bitterly disappointed with the PA. This will make it hard for the PA to keep groups from clashing with the IDF.

Above all, the Temple Mount is in the headlines. The provocation may not be Israeli this time, but the combination of political aspirations with calls for a religious war may render the "who started" question irrelevant.

In October 2000, U.S. Senator George Mitchell was sent by president Bill Clinton to Israel and the PA to find out why the intifada erupted and recommend steps to prevent violence. He recommended stopping construction in the settlements and halting lethal measures against demonstrators.

Mitchell, now special envoy to the Middle East, is to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and PA President Mahmoud Abbas Friday in a bid to jump-start the talks on a final-status agreement. Good luck, pal.

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  • 14. 0 0
    C'mon Avi - you can do better than this
    • T Neeman
    • 10.10.09
    • 13:59

    C'mon there Avi, you can do better than this. This starts with Obama's ridiculous demand for a total freeze, which everyone knew was a non-starter, and ultimately backfired on Abbas - as Elliott Abrams in the WSJ predicted it would. Then the PA shot itself in the foot by taking the lead on the Goldstone report- doesn't get more hypocritical than that. So now they are looking for a victory, hence Temple Mt riots, but they won't get this either because WB Arabs are enjoying some freedom and econ propserity.

  • 13. 0 0
    The analyst has been away for while
    • Reza Shah
    • 09.10.09
    • 23:32

    the palestinian have second choice no more intifadahs but statehoods even as miniture as they will be they will become nuclear core for large state

  • 12. 0 0
    Learn to accept
    • syrian opinion
    • 09.10.09
    • 22:28

    and you will be accepted...you only distance and make it worse for yourself with the so called intifada,,,,there are more interesting things in life and guess what: life is short.

  • 11. 0 0
    Denise No 3
    • jackie
    • 09.10.09
    • 19:24

    Throwing rocks to you seems harmless. I suggest you stand in front of a wall (like the Kotel) 50 feet high and have someone hurl rocks the size of bricks down at you. You might change your mind. I had it happen to me during Sukkot a few years ago and still have nightmares about the one that landed a foot away.

  • 10. 0 0
    To 7 joshai
    • Gili
    • 09.10.09
    • 19:10

    This justifies the end of this bloody Occupation.Pure and Simple.

  • 9. 0 0
    ANALYSIS: Whistling in the dark
    • Mark Lincoln
    • 09.10.09
    • 13:02

    The 'little whiff of the grape' method of negotiation has succeeded in pacifying Gaza is the premise. The Palestinians will not again resist the theory goes. If you hum a few bars, we can all whistle in the dark.

  • 8. 0 0
    If peace doesn't bring freedom, the Pals WILL fight.
    • Michael
    • 09.10.09
    • 09:03

    I'm not quite sure what planet Issacharoff lives on. The generation who fought the last intifada may be tired, but there's always a new generation growing up. Obama has created this, by raising real Pal hopes that the US would, finally, become a fair arbitrator between Israel and Palestine, and would finally deliver Palestinian freedom. Instead, the moment Israel said Boo, Obama crapped his pants and ran away. The next generation, having had their hopes raises, don't just want to go back to being good little ghetto slaves which is all Israel's government seems to be offering them, so, eventually they will fight. They're not being offered any alternative. Lieberman has been pretty explicit on that.

  • 7. 0 0
    all this justifies more occupation
    • Jochai Rubinstein
    • 09.10.09
    • 08:31

    Israel occupied the vacuum of desert land deserted by Palestinians afraid of revenge by the Israeli army for all their atrocities before 1948. The present hysteria over the Templemount and the lynch mobs justify more occupation and Israeli self-defense.

  • 6. 0 0
    Third intifada unlikely if you believe in the tooth fairy
    • Joe
    • 09.10.09
    • 07:51

    Israel can ignore the call of Palestinians to the end occupation. It can ignore the call to end settlement expansion. It can ignore international pressure to resume peace talks and end settlement expansion. It can continue to confiscate land and continue to maintain a genocidal siege on Gaza. It can continue to ignore international laws, UN resolutions, ICC decisions and everything under the sun. What it can't do is stop the will of a people to resist such thuggery, thievery, brutality, oppression, insolence and arrogance. The third intifada is a glaring certain inevitability. Israel has yet to learn - and in my view will never learn - as Jewish history is one big lesson never learned by Jews - that to get along one has to get along. The actions of Israel is worse than a elephant in a China shop. I mean c'mon, get a clue, get over this testosterone trip back to the future.

  • 5. 0 0
    The most distressing thing
    • Moshe
    • 09.10.09
    • 07:46

    The most distressing thing about the current situation is the weak behavior of Israel's leaders, who act not like leaders of a strong sovereign state possessing dignity and self respect, but like ghetto dwellers who cringe in terror of their adversaries and don't dare do anything to upset them. They bring disgrace upon the Jewish people by their failure to forcefully assert legitimate Jewish rights.

  • 4. 0 0
    Third intifada unlikely if you believe in the tooth fairy
    • Joe
    • 09.10.09
    • 07:40

    Israel can ignore the call of Palestinians to the end occupation. It can ignore the call to end settlement expansion. It can ignore international pressure to resume peace talks and end settlement expansion. It can continue to confiscate land and continue to maintain a genocidal siege on Gaza. It can continue to ignore international laws, UN resolutions, ICC decisions and everything under the sun. What it can't do is stop the will of a people to resist such thuggery, thievery, brutality, oppression, insolence and arrogance. The third intifada is a glaring certain inevitability. Israel has yet to learn - and in my view will never learn - as Jewish history is one big lesson never learned by Jews - that to get along one has to get along. The actions of Israel is worse than a elephant in a China shop. I mean c'mon, get a clue, get over this testosterone trip back to the future.

  • 3. 0 0
    Last thing Israel needs
    • Denise
    • 09.10.09
    • 06:35

    With the Gaza war, under investigation, and the Lebanon calamity in ones recent memory, I doubt most Israelis want their "BOYS" involved in another "sqirmish", or worse, bus bombs. Let the Palestinians worship as they please, sit back, have a smoke....and be happy to be alive! Hey even get a Starbucks,ok, but for Heavens sake, don't start up anything with kids throwing rocks, ok? You just look foolish.

  • 2. 0 0
    Why no Intifadeh? Palestinians don't want to lose everything.
    • A Nice Fellow
    • 09.10.09
    • 05:17

    After being humiliated in intifadehs one and two, they are not likely to want to get beaten down again, this time to lose everything--including their dream of a state.

  • 1. 0 0
    Pie in the Sky
    • arieh zimmerman
    • 09.10.09
    • 04:50

    The headline of Mr. Issacharoff's article seems to be misleading. Following the first two paragraphs he lists a number of reasons showing that, in spite of the lack of desire of the Palestinian leadership for a third intifada, there are still many ways for Israeli ignorance of cause and effect to spark a new set of violent acts. There are also still too many extremists on both sides for whom an atmosphere of violence is desirable. In spite of the article, I think that Avi will not be so surprised should the optimistic headline be proved just a bit too sanguine.