Analysis / The political fight

Knesset members voting next week on the government's announcement regarding "the revised disengagement plan" will not be deciding on evacuation of settlers from the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria. They will be asked to support the cabinet's June 6 decision on preparing for the evacuation, which stated explicitly that "this decision does not authorize evacuating settlements." A week later, the government will bring the Evacuation Compensation Bill for a preliminary Knesset reading.

Associates of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said at the end of last week that there would be no additional appeal for Knesset approval before implementing the disengagement plan, because the cabinet's June decision established the mechanism for approving the evacuation: further debate and decisions in the cabinet. In their opinion, the announcement that will be brought for Knesset approval next week will enfold within it the approval for evacuation in the future.

The political struggle is concentrated in the Likud faction. Sharon's associates tally 68-69 supporters for the government's disengagement announcement: 25 from Likud, 21 from Labor, 15 from Shinui, 6 from Yahad, plus MKs Michael Nudelman and David Tal. It's not clear how many of the 15 Likud "rebels" will vote against, and how many will abstain. If they all vote against, and another five or six Likud MKs join them, the expected result could be reversed, with a defeat for Sharon.

This week, Sharon will fight against a national referendum under increasing pressure from the Yesha Council of settlements and senior Likud ministers, led by Benjamin Netanyahu. His aides said yesterday that he remains opposed to a referendum. With good reason: both a justified fear of destructive delay in implementing the disengagement, and the assessment of risk inherent in the referendum. The opposing camp is cohesive, determined and knows how to run a campaign, whereas it's unclear who will fight for disengagement.

But to hear Sharon's associates talk, the opposition sounds a little less decisive. Several suggested yesterday that Sharon will not change his mind on the referendum, at least until next week's Knesset vote on the disengagement plan. The prime minister won't want to weaken his supporters and render the vote a moot gesture.

Just last Thursday, Sharon explained to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee why he objects to a national referendum. It's difficult to imagine him making such a rapid turnaround. Therefore he will reject the Yesha Council's request for a referendum today.

Sharon's advisers object to the referendum idea. The only one apparently willing to consider the matter is advertising executive Reuven Adler.

Another idea put forward by Sharon's bureau was to conduct a reverse referendum, in which a majority of 60 percent would be required for the disengagement not to be implemented. In the meantime, despite the defeat in last week's vote, and the imminent political battle, Sharon's bureau is in good spirits. Yesterday, all of the aides, consultants and associates came to a surprise birthday party organized by former bureau chief Uri Shani for his wife. Sharon stayed home and made do with a telephoned greeting.