Analysis / The end of the honeymoon

The bloody terrorist attack at the Karni crossing last Thursday night could be seen as "strategic," since it caused a political crisis and ended Israel's diplomatic honeymoon with the Palestinian Authority's new chairman, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen).

The optimistic atmosphere hovering over the political arena since the demise of Yasser Arafat shattered abruptly, and Israel's relations with the PA resumed the familiar seesaw of terror attacks and retaliations.

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon decided to use the attack to test Abbas' leadership. Israel is threatening the PA with a diplomatic boycott and with blocking the international aid to the Palestinians unless they pull themselves together and start acting against terror.

Sharon knows Israel will have difficulty sticking to such a stance. But he wants to push Abbas into a corner, to drive him to confront the terror organizations. Jerusalem believes Abbas is playing for time and trying to reach understandings with Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, instead of taking military steps like deploying his troops in the Qassam launching areas.

"We became increasingly concerned by Abbas' apparent decision to use the same counter-terrorism measures he did last time (as PA prime minister), i.e., to persuade the terrorists and reach an agreement with them," a senior source said. "Apparently he is not aware of the gravity of the problem, and we get the impression that he is resuming his old patterns, of saying he needs 30 or 60 or 600 days to get organized."

Israel has no intention of waiting for him, the source said. Quashing terror will take time and a change of atmosphere, but we have to start somewhere. "We gave a clear signal that if there isn't real action on his part, we're not in the game," the source said.

Sharon's position was bolstered by the fact that no Israeli provocation preceded the Karni attack and from the goodwill toward Israel in the international community, following Israel's help with Arafat's funeral and the Palestinian elections.

The signs of crisis were evident even last week, in Sharon's lukewarm response to Abbas' election and in his aides' messages that he was not about to meet Abbas soon. Sharon's advisers, Dov Weisglass and Shalom Turgeman, met Abbas' people last week for preliminary talks. Sources in Sharon's bureau said the leaders may meet only after the London conference in March. Other sources said Sharon and Abbas may meet at the end of this month.

The situation in the Gaza Strip has been escalating for some weeks, especially in the launching of mortars and Qassams. The defense establishment claims the Palestinian field commanders in the Strip wanted to act against terror, but did not get a green light from the Muqata. Israel did not respond to the mortars and Qassams, but refused to swallow a large terrorist attack at the merchandise crossing point that serves the Palestinians.

Sharon's response was not immediate. The terrorist attack occurred in the midst of the debate on the authorities of his vice premier, Shimon Peres. His aides refrained from commenting at the time, and only at noon Friday did Sharon and his men decide to suspend the talks, close the crossings and launch a series of military moves. Sharon shared the decision only with Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz.

The response was delayed and judicious, yet its timing came under question. People who criticized the decision suggested Israel should have waited until Abbas was sworn in and then denounced the Palestinians for damaging the merchandise crossing. The announcement of suspending the talks and the pictures of the Palestinians killed in the IDF's operations in Gaza again cast Israel in the role of the aggressive party that refuses to hold peace talks. However, Sharon's aides are convinced that it was better to present a tough position vis-a-vis Abbas from the outset, rather than to let him shirk his responsibility.