ANALYSIS / Shalit footage adds pressure for Netanyahu

The reactions on the part of Noam Shalit and the Hamas leadership one day after the release of the first video footage of captive soldier Gilad Shalit testify more than anything to the long road still ahead before completing a prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas.

WATCH THE VIDEO:

Get the full English transcript here

Gilad Shalit's father Noam said Saturday that a breakthrough is not yet at hand, that the two sides are still not close to a deal. His remarks were intended as a warning against complacency, against the widespread feeling that the footage is a sign that an exchange is imminent. Such an impression could reduce public pressure on Israel's government, ultimately leading to the current round of talks concluding without yielding any results - except bitter disappointment for the Shalit family.

Hamas, for its part, is telling Israeli negotiators that its bargaining positions have not changed. Osama Muzaini, in charge of the Shalit case for Hamas in Gaza, said Saturday that the organization does not intend to forgo any of the 450 prisoners it demanded during the first stage of the negotiations.

At the same time, the head of the Hamas politburo said in no uncertain terms that the group intends to abduct more and more Israeli soldiers in order to release every Palestinian prisoner.

Still, the video's broadcast symbolizes in many ways the "point of no return" in the negotiations for Shalit's release. No Israeli - politician, military official or average citizen - can remain indifferent to the image of Shalit, clean, shaven and healthy, reading a statement prepared for him by Hamas' military wing in a trembling voice, but almost with a smile.

Logic stops there. Calculations of the cost and benefit inherent in a prisoner exchange involving hundreds of terrorists is no longer relevant to the Jewish desire, the human desire, to see the return of the soldier who has become a son to us all.

All of the parties involved in the talks knew this would be the likely result of broadcasting the video. Both Shalit's captors and the German mediator who pressured Hamas to release the footage to Israel, understand that images of a healthy Gilad will lead to pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make painful concessions.

Netanyahu decided several months ago to accelerate talks to complete the Shalit deal, and the tape represents an important stage in preparing Israeli public opinion for a painful agreement with Hamas - the likes of which the State of Israel has known in the past.

The footage of Shalit will make it all the more difficult for cabinet members to vote against the exchange, even though it will include those who planned suicide bombings or "only" terrorists with blood on their hands. The alternative to completing the deal has been cast in the Israeli consciousness with images brought to the public in years past: Ron Arad, who appeared on tape in captivity shortly before his whereabouts were lost, and Nachshon Waxman, killed during his rescue attempt in 1994.

It is difficult to imagine someone among Israel's decision makers daring to now call for an operation that could endanger Shalit's life and those of other soldiers.

The two sides in the current negotiations could be brought closer together by both making concessions. Hamas has rejected the Israeli demand to release dozens of the prisoners to other countries, as opposed to the West Bank. The negotiating parties are now trying to formulate creative solutions to these issues, such as exile from the West Bank for a limited time. Negotiators say this exhausting wrangling could drag on for several more months.