Analysis / Readying for extremists

Senior security sources believe that elements in the extreme right wing have concluded that a dramatic act by a single person is liable to stop the disengagement plan. This view is based on an analysis of recent statements by members of right-wing groups.

The extremists on the right rely on a historic precedent: the murder of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin by Yigal Amir in November 1995. The murder, in effect, stopped the Oslo process. Even though Rabin's successor, Shimon Peres, proceeded with the transfer of Palestinian cities to the Palestinian Authority, Benjamin Netanyahu beat him in elections six months later, putting the whole process on ice.

Two scenarios are particularly disturbing to the security services: an attempt against Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's life, and an attack against the mosques on the Temple Mount.

Security for Sharon has already been stepped up, and various measures have been adopted in order to prevent an attack against the mosques. But, in an effort to preempt any possibility, preparations are being made at the legal level in order to issue a series of warrants that will allow dozens of right-wing activists to be placed in administrative detention as the disengagement plan moves closer.

Support for issuing a relatively large number of such warrants is broadening, particularly in view of intelligence that a group of extremists is planning to carry out major attacks against Palestinians. Security sources believe the growing intensity in the atmosphere among the right wing in recent weeks will only encourage the activists to take violent action against Arab targets.

To date, the General Security Services and the State Prosecutor's Office have only managed to bring about the conviction of a small number of members of the Bat Ayin underground, residents of a settlement in Gush Etzion that were involved in placing bombs in Palestinian schools.

At the Security Service, they say others were involved in the planning of a series of shooting attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank after the outbreak of the intifada in September 2000. Eight Palestinians died in those attacks. Investigators believe the culprits have been some of those interrogated by them, but they had managed to hold out during questioning. The concern is that now there will be a resumption of attacks against Palestinians as part of the effort to inflame the situation in the territories before the disengagement is initiated.

Haaretz learned that while discussions have been ongoing on the issue of the warrants for administrative detentions, no decisions have been taken, even though the people who are likely to be detained are well known for their extremism.

There is also growing concern in the Israel Defense Forces that extremists among the settlers will target officers assigned to the evacuation of settlements. The targets may be officers living in settlements. The possibility of assigning security guards for those officers is being considered.