Analysis / No withdrawal from the withdrawal

Something interesting happened to the disengagement plan after its rejection by the Likud membership a week ago: From an initiative of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, it suddenly became an international plan led by the U.S.

Sharon is still trying to figure out how to move ahead, while President George Bush is giving interviews right and left, sending envoys and letters, and trying to market the withdrawal from Gush Katif, Kadim and Ganim as a move that will change the face of the Middle East.

The American bear hug means one thing: Israel will no longer be able to withdraw from the withdrawal. From now on, it will be the starting point for all political initiatives. Referendum, no referendum, Sharon said we're leaving Gaza, and a promise is a promise.

Israeli officials who were previously strongly opposed to the disengagement plan as it was being formulated, now they say there is no choice because the world has expropriated the initiative from Sharon. Bush's pat on the back has become a full Nelson from which Israel will not be able to break free.

Sharon is besieged. He needs a political maneuver that will allow him to pass his plan in the cabinet. Today he will be meeting with Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a key player in the Likud, to test for elbow room. Meanwhile, Sharon is playing for time, and trying to avoid European pressure. The Americans understand Sharon needs time, but they have warned that delays will create a vacuum that will suck in more bothersome plans.

The Americans have brought Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia, who had been shunted to the sidelines in recent weeks, back into the picture, although in view of his insignificance so far, the administration is not pinning great hopes on him. But in the wake of the pictures of U.S. soldiers torturing Iraqi prisoners, Bush has to show the Arab world that he cares about the Palestinians. To calm its concerns, Israel has been told that dialogue with Qureia is a means of ignoring Yasser Arafat.

The Americans don't have much elbow room either. It's an election year, the race is close, not a time to make Israel and its Jewish supporters too angry. The compromise was to present letters to the Arabs as a "counterbalance" to the promises to Sharon, while emphasizing elements of Bush's vision comfortable for the Palestinians, such as "end to the occupation."

The head of the National Security Council, Giora Eiland, responsible for putting the

disengagement plan together, has disowned the plan to journalists, saying he prefered a more comprehensive plan. The Prime Minister's Office was not happy with Eiland's statements. The response was to disparage a comprehensive plan that Eiland presented, which is based on an exchange of territory between Egypt and Israel and an expansion of the Gaza Strip. Eiland was told in Washington last weekend that publication of the plan in Israel will "kill it" with the Egyptians.