ANALYSIS / Is there 'smoking gun' proof of Iran bid for nukes?
U.S. intelligence says no proof Iran renewed its efforts since 2003, Germany claims it never stopped program.
By Amos Harel Tags: North Korea Iran Israel newsA day before the launching of talks between the six world powers and Iran, an Iranian official justified the hiding of the newly revealed nuclear installation in Qom.
Meanwhile, new publications in the United States indicate a dispute between various intelligence bodies on the progress of the Iranian nuclear program.
The head of the Iranian nuclear program and Deputy President Ali Akbar Salachi said yesterday that the construction of the installation under a mountain near the holy city of Qom was meant to protect it from attack. Salachi said that Iran was ready to discuss its nuclear program, but not to give up its right to enrich uranium.
Unlike the Israeli press, which operates under strict censorship when covering Iran-related news, American media has been free to dwell on all details of the matter. The New York Times yesterday dedicated considerable space to the debate between various intelligence agencies over the progresses and degree of activity of the military aspect in the Iranian nuclear program.
The debate centers on the "smoking gun" - definitive proof of Iran's military intentions. According to the Times, the debate reached it's apogee in 2007, when an American intelligence report stated Iran's efforts to develop a nuclear warhead ceased as early as 2003.
There are still disagreements, as Germany claims that Iran never stopped the program, and Israel claims it had resumed it in 2005. France has hinted that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) knows more than it is willing to admit. American intelligence insists that there is no proof Iran had renewed its efforts on a military nuclear program since 2003. They say Israeli claims are based on undocumented circumstantial evidence, far from constituting viable proof.
The Times also notes the current disagreements are influenced by the debate surrounding Iraq's supposed possession of weapons of mass destruction before 2003. The credibility of American intelligence was badly damaged by what was seen as over-emphasizing insufficient evidence, and has tended to be considerably more circumspect in its estimates today.
The Iranian showcasing of several types of ballistic missiles in its military exercises earlier this week did not reveal much new about Iranian abilities. Weapons expert Uzi Rubin, a former Defense Ministry official, told Haaretz that all missiles displayed in the exercises have been seen before. However, he said, the launching of the 2,400-kilometer range Sajil missile is of considerable importance, as it demonstrates Iranian capability to launch long-distance missiles. Iran has previously demonstrated its ability to launch an intercontinental missile by sending off a satellite some months ago.
"They have left their North Korean friends far, far behind," said Rubin. "The meaning of this move should be clear to many countries besides Israel. The distance between Iran and Israel remains the same, and the Iranians have already proved they can cover it with a ballistic missile. But when they send off a 2,400-kilometer missile, even if that doesn?t cover all of the desired range, the inevitable conclusion is that Iran can attack several Eastern European states, if it so wishes."
Another military expert, who, as part of the defense establishment prefers to remain unnamed, told Haaretz that Iran demonstrated independent and variable launch abilities once again. Any further progress, the expert said, "is just a matter of making a decision and allocating time and money" by the Tehran leadership. "The Americans understand the gravity of the situation, and this is why they are reacting so strongly both to the missiles exercise and to the revelation of the secret uranium-enrichment site near the city of Qom. After appearing pale and unimpressive in their response to the North Korean missile experiment, it's important for the Americans to appear much tougher toward Iran."
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Jim:"P.S. Iran doesn`t have to prove anything!" Oh why? Because you say so? Then why is your president asking them them to prove their case?
??rabble always go after the intellectuals with torches and pitchfork? I believe you do not have a slightest concept of what constitutes persecution of intellectuals. What you call torches and pitchfork is actually a sarcastic reflection on an opposing opinion, nothing else. It has always been considered perfectly legit in an honest exchange of opinions. ??How about facing the facts head on?..? You have no facts of your own on Iran and neither do I. All we have are official government declarations and the various media reports that quote undisclosed sources. From this you choose to believe what you want. But please do not imagine for a second that you can convince people feeling threatened by Iran that all of that is just paranoia. I am already acquainted with your opinion that all the world problems are rooted in the evil Zionist occupation of Palestinian lands. Sorry to shatter your well-rounded theory: it is not a fact but is your rather heavily biased opinion. Re: cheapening anti-Semitism. Thanks for your concern over keeping the definition pure. Anti-Semitism is decease of mind that affects the ability of those infected to think rationally. Selective recollection of history and one-sided interpretation of evens are also well known symptoms. Look close in the mirror to see those.
The nexus of the current discussions has to do with Iran's 'right' under the NPT to enrich Uranium for reactor fuel and the denial of that by UN resolution at the urging of the Bush administration. Ir is quite possible for Iran to 'reassure' all signatories. It can return to the Additional Protocols to the NPT and cooperate completely with the IAEA. Iran DID violate the NPT several times in several ways. Most of the violations were technical and minor BUT the procurement of centrifuge technology from Pakistan was BLATANT and suspicious. While much of this crisis has been based in the lust of the Bush administration for war in his first administration, as well as the Israel rights desire for a new major war; NEITHER would have had any traction without the actions of Iran during that period. There would be no need for the denial of enrichment by the UN were Iran to be totally under and compliant with the Additional Protocols.
The US is just stretched too thin with problems on both sides of Iran and in Korea. A recommendation is pending to increase troop levels a lot for Afghanistan and we will have to pull them from some other effort, probably Iraq. We had 8 years of bad strategy and tactics there. Canada's pulling more than its fair share, but the rest of NATO lacks the will and interest and the troops and the leadership. They say they suddenly feel threatened by Iran, but not enough to actually do anything that might hurt them economically.
generation capacity off the shelf. Iran has, they have brought into Russian nuclear technology. However, knowing that in the past Iran has been subject to severe sanctions, Iran has backed up this original (not inconsiderable) investment by ensuring that they have the fuel to power it. Obviously the major problem is that the technology has a dual use and Iran needs to reassure signatorys of the NPT that they are not misusing this technology. I believe the Iranian Foreign Minister currently in Washington is attempting to do just this. A deal is been mooted, and Israel will not like the idea that Iran will becoe a 'might have' severely curtailing israel's plans of expansion in the area.
The mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv will be your "smoking gun". While Ha'aretz has been engaged in treasonous hard-left anti-Israel propaganda for years, helping to diminish American and American Jews' support for Israel, fueling European antisemitism, and urging appeasement of muslims, Iran has been building its bombs. With the most anti-Israel president in history in power, all that is left to save Israel is for it to bomb Iran's nukes, NOW. Watch as Ha'aretz misses its last opportunity to miss its last opportunity.
He is more intelligent than our last; he knows you are a little warmongering plot of land beating your tin war drum against yet another Muslim country. You are out of step with the times. Your hate for Obama will consume you, however, he is still a verrrrry popular president by all standards. In fact, he has the highest rating around the world, except, alas with poor tin war drum beating Israelis and their amen corner. Such a pity. Judaism believes in caring for the poor, so open your pocketbook wide cause allllllllll Americans need healthcare, just like you and I have it. Somebody with H1N1 without medical care can give it to you, my cupcake. Sorry to read about your dislike of Obama, however, you are in the minority. Poor cupcake Lynn. Wham bam on the drum, but nobody is listening and Gates says military option not feasible. Guess that leaves the paranoid to work it out. Tea?
This administration is bland, and the strength and determination of Secretary od State Hillary Clinton, hasn't been felt at all.
no healthcare? Tens of millions, 30% or so and going up. US health care is sick because company profits prefer above giving health care. Obama is right when he says disaster looms for much more Americans if that is not fixed. Not socialism but common sense. I wish Obama was a mean socialist sob but he turns out to be a professor in a glass house. You are either still a bit a hard-stone capitalist heartless Calvinistic economical right-wing Darwinist (pfff) inside or you have been buying the propaganda of the insurance conpanies. Would you find attacking Iran and ruining US budget and economy (oil) impressive?
This info is all from govt and NGO sites, NOT THE MEDIA: The height of Iranian HEU possession was the 6 kilos of 93% U235 given to it by the USA in 1967. Since then, up to 2003 inspectors were given free reign. They were expelled then. In 2007 they were allowed back and demanded access to documents and sites. After some prodding, the Iranians relented. Traces of HEU have been found at one site. This result was never replicated despite further visits and the Iranians claim a CIA plot. THe sites where HEU was supposed to have been made all came out negative. This latest refinement centre is incomplete and the Iranians VOLUNTEERED the information to the IAEA. The fuss is over the fact that they didn't fulfil the requirements of 'Subsidiary Arrangement General Part, code 3.1'. WHich requires early provision of design information. But this is VOLUNTARY! Research rather than paniking and recycling propaganda!!
You American pride insulted by saying your intelligence is less than good? Therefore reminding me of how imprescindible the US Army is for containing Iran? I didn't say a word about the US Army, Mark, only about American intelligence capabilities. From the mutually friendly crashing US choppers in the sands of Iran in 1981, to the banana leaves on the helmets of US troops kicking out Noriega from Panama City, there is a fundamentally inuslar and ignorant virus of stupidity that gets it wrong for the superb US Army time after time. Oh, and I forgot that rosy, huge American elite agent, "disguised as and Afghan", but speaking a broken Baluchi with such a heavy American accent... the whole mission was a blunder due to a "Get Smart" intelligence.
It is time that Israel came clean about its own 'secret' nuclear weapons store. It must release Mordechai Vanunu, who not only served all of his 18 years sentence for revealing Israel's nuclear capabilities, but has spent over six years since under house arrest - a digraceful state of affairs. Israel must sign the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty, and allow inspection of its nuclear sites at Dimona by the IAEA, as demanded by it head of mission. With the current extreme Kahanist members of government, who have called for using nuclear weapons on the Palestinians, it is Israel that poses a a dangerous threat to the world. It must stop trying to be the policeman of the world. Any attack on Iran would be illegal under the UN Charter and a war crime.
Ok, Darth Zaider. I am not anti-semite; but I am 100% against the State of Israel or the government of the United States doing something stupid! Three Jewish curses: May AIPAC's pocketbook shrink! May the next general who says we need more troops in Afghanistan lose his commission! And may the military-industrial complex go on welfare! Soon!
About two hundred S300 batteries would help Iran immensely.
"The mullahs will eventually be displaced. Israel should not attempt an attack. It would seal Israel`s fate for the worse. Let the Iranians collapse into themselves ... Religious fanatics should not and cannot run a modern state." Better advice was never given, nor truer words ever spoken!
...and why is it that the rabble always go after the intellectuals with torches and pitchforks? How about facing the facts head on? The best way to neutralize Ira is a fair and just peace deal and an end to Israel's various and decades long brutal occupations. You cheapen the term antisemitism trying to pin it on people looking for Israel to make peace.
socialist agenda now with a lax and unimpressive Pres leading the way.
P.S. Iran doesn't have to prove anything!
diplomacy=threat+insult+nuts+loose screws. The US Army is still in Iraq. The US is presently making war in Afghanistan and Pakistan; the US Navy stands just outside the Straits of Hormuz, and have penetrated the Persian Gulf. No one knows where the US nuclear submarine fleet has located itself and the USA isn't talking about that. Threat! Other nations of the world cannot agree on whether Iran is or is not pursuing a nuclear bomb, but the US's own intelligence corps says she is not. Still, Washington insists upon holding a club over Iran's head, even while it makes attempts to sound oh so reasonable. Insult! The only sensible thing the US has done so far is to say NO to Israeli nut-cases who want to bomb Iran. All of that being the case, and recalling that actions always speak louder than words, there is definitely a screw loose in Washington.
Once again Israel wants to spill US blood on foreign soil just as we did in Iraq. Can't recall Iran attacking anyone in modern times. Israel continues to attack and kill Palestinians on their soil. Who's the hypocrite? Israel,sign the non-proliferation treaty and open up your own nuclear sites. Why are you exempt??
shipped out of Iraq to be stored in Canada. Little known fact, German intel supported the invasion of Iraq. Fed info to US during the initial run into Baghdad.
The readers should rememebr that the best minds of this forum such as Johnboy, BBS and Mark Lincoln have already supplied irrefutable proof that Iran does not seek nuclear weapons and never has. All the recent screaming about allegded Iranian facilities was entirely engineered by AIPAC and Israel had planted evidence that will be used in goading the US into an unnecessary confrontation with Iran. Anti-Semites of the word: UNITE !
The tougher the Americans behave against Iran, the tougher will be their efforts to develop nuclear weapons, as they provide the only deterrence they may have against a conventional attack.
"The "Smoking Gun" and the "Mushroom Cloud" rings a bell. Where have I heard that one before?" - Mark of Lewiston The Great Decider, George W. Bush. We had to invade Iraq because otherwise it was certain to nuke us.
"American intelligence insists that there is no proof Iran had renewed its efforts on a military nuclear program since 2003. They say Israeli claims are based on undocumented circumstantial evidence, far from constituting viable proof." What!!!!! Just because they fell for the Iraqi nonsense about WMD from "relaiable sources", they wised up now? Bastards!! The US and Israel are not on the "same page", they are not even reading the same book. The Hormuz in flames isn't anything good for the western world and particalary not before the winter season. Only Russia would survive that unharmed and also put it in a unic position of being the only source for keeping the Europeans up and running. The US or the EU isn't working for that to happen. So the Israeli Hasbara isn't taken seriously, the US will rely on it's own intelligence and that is as stated: American intelligence insists that there is no proof Iran had renewed its efforts on a military nuclear program since 2003. They say Israeli claims are based on undocumented circumstantial evidence, far from constituting viable proof.
If the Germans are so sure, they should do what they think is right. maybe the Colombians should help along with the French and Aussies. If you don't trust our intelligence or our President, why even think about our troops or navy? Just leave the US out of it. We've already got 2 war on our hands and that's enough.
The "Smoking Gun" and the "Mushroom Cloud" rings a bell. Where have I heard that one before? Yes, Peter Williams, Australia should invade tomorrow. Better yet, get China to sponsor a sanctions regime or blockade. Why wait on Obama? Isn't he a Kenyan Muslim? Why would Iran care about him?
The massive dispersed array of nuclear factories in Iran is not a smoking gun, it is a virtual division of artillery. If they wanted peaceful nuclear energy they could have bought it cheaply off the shelf from any number of countries. Instead they have chosen to lie, deceive, procrastinate, and provoke and pervert international efforts. Okay, they will get the nukes sooner or later, but they cannot solve their internal problems. A modern country cannot be run by medieval religious nuts.
Iran's massive investment in nuclear technology can mean only one thing. They are pursuing nuclear weapons. If they were interested in peaceful uses, they could have bought plants, technology and uranium from other countries and done it openly. Anyone who thinks they are truthful is lying to themselves. Iran has massive internal problems, and muscle flexing they think will distract their own people, temporarily. The mullahs will eventually be displaced. Israel should not attempt an attack. It would seal Israel's fate for the worse. Let the Iranians collapse into themselves and explode as the recent riots showed is about to happen. Religious fanatics should not and cannot run a modern state.
This is not a case of innocent until proven guilty. This is a case of: 1/. We gave you the (Nuclear Power) technology when you signed then NPT 2/. We suspect you have abused our trust by using this technology to develop Nuclear Weapons 3/. Please put our minds at rest 4/. If you are not interested in allaying our fears, we will assume the worst and act accordingly.
The rhetoric may change, but the timetable is so lax as to allow all the decisions by Tehran to be taken without any pressure.
I would trust German Intelligence, and I wouldn't trust the American one. Since the discovery of the site at Larissan, that the smoking gun is evident. Haze has been blown over it who knows to hide what. Qom was "discovered" now, but has been known to exist for years. American Intelligence unfortunately still resembles a bit "Get Smart" by Mel Brooks. German Intelligence is more matter of fact, and can resort to the enormous, unscrupulous sale of German products to Iran.
This is easy to prove. force Israel to open Dimona for inspections
Gauging weapons warhead and miniaturization efforts are difficult in even half-credible police regimes such as Iran. Iraq is the example of a regime believed to be actively pursuing WMD that stopped and the American intelligence community is both politicized (liberal with many disdainful of Israel--and Jews) and slippery in inconsistently limiting definition of militarized nuclear development to explicit weapons/warhead design. Could be, maybe not. They do have a history of undeclared activity, and the no warhead assessment is reinforced by natural antipathy to israel and a preference for passive inactivity--after Iran provides incontrovertible evidence of weaponization (the first test--boom) it will be comfortably too late to do anything about it--which will suit many American analysts just fine.
...this article under the current headline could have been shortened to one word: No.