Analysis / Iran is wasting time in nuclear talks with West
Iran continues its game of deception and new sanctions almost certainly will be insufficiently potent.
By Amos Harel Tags: Iran Barack Obama Iran nuclear Israel newsIran's dialogue with the international community on its nuclear program is expected to be renewed soon. But it will be too little, too late.
Eight months have passed since the Obama administration came to office. And a week ago the ayatollahs' regime released a document on its nuclear program that offered only general declarations and evaded direct reference to the main issues at hand.
Adding to the sense of a lack of sincerity was a declaration Saturday from Ahmad Vahidi, Iran's new defense minister, who is still wanted in Argentina for his role in two 1990s bombings that claimed dozens of lives. Vahidi said his country is not interested in a nuclear weapon because "weapons of mass destruction are contrary to our religious, human and national principles."
Iran continues to play its game of deception. The former chief of Military Intelligence, Major General (res.) Aharon Ze'evi-Farkash, told Haaretz the Iranians are behaving this way because "they're at such an advanced stage in their plans, all they need to do is to waste time while pushing hard for their immediate goal, which is to produce sufficient quantities of fissile material for two or three atomic bombs."
In Israel, there are suspicions that the pace of Iranian advance has accelerated, and that Tehran "will continue walking on the edge of the cliff" in its exchanges with the international community.
Apparently, this explains the declaration of Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki that dialogue with the international community might include discussion of the nuclear program "if the conditions are right."
This statement diverges slightly from the document Iran offered as its official response to the international community, and also from the comments of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who claimed last Monday that his country will not cease to enrich uranium and will not negotiate on its "nuclear rights."
The results of the dialogue are expected to become clear by December. The commonly accepted assessment here holds that little can be achieved and therefore sanctions against Iran will be forthcoming. But the likelihood of tough sanctions is doubtful, as backing from Russia and China will be limited. Even if the U.S. manages to harness broad support for sanctions, with the backing of the United Nations Security Council, these will almost certainly be insufficiently potent.
As as alternative, the U.S. Congress is planning to announce sanctions that will be adopted by France, Germany, Britain and Canada. But there is still a long way to go before that happens, and the Obama administration is terribly busy with the economy, health care reform and the North Korean provocations. It's hard to know where Iran's nuclear program stands in terms of urgency. Not the top priority - that's fairly clear and certainly not something the U.S. is planning to deal with through offensive action.
Meanwhile, Israel is being careful with its words. The minister charged with the intelligence portfolio, Dan Meridor, told Reuters late last week that "there is not much time to waste," while emphasizing the Iranian nuclear program is a global problem, and that he was not necessarily referring to a military option.
Not Hezbollah's rockets
On a different front, one indirectly linked to Iran's nuclear program, two Katyusha rockets struck the Western Galilee on Friday, causing damage but no casualties. This is the third strike of this sort and the fifth in the three years that have passed since the end of the Second Lebanon War. However, Israeli intelligence believes those responsible for the rockets are not Hezbollah but a Palestinian-Sunni group with links to global jihadists backed by Al-Qaida.
Hezbollah presumably will resume firing on the north in two cases, as part of an attempt to exact revenge, possibly for the assassination of its terror mastermind, Imad Mughniyeh, as it blames Israel for his death, or as part of the broader clash between Israel and Iran. The defense establishment is sticking to its assessment that Israel's deterrent against Hezbollah in the north still holds and therefore made do with a minimal response - artillery fire into southern Lebanon, as a pin-point response to the Katyusha attacks and, according to Lebanese news agencies, threatening telephone calls to residents in the area, warning that the Israel Defense Forces can do much worse.
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It would seem quite evident that the Russians are playing Obama and his junior administration as "suckers" and laughing behind closed doors. You only get what you pay for and the American people have a socialist on their hands for 3 more years. Good luck America!
Israel knows it must do something to stop itself being wiped out by Iran! Ahmadinejad`s lies and deceptions are not fooling anyone. Israeli intelligence is first-class so they probably know more than they are letting on about Iranian`s nuclear advancements. Israel won`t just be sitting ducks, but whatever they decide to do they will get pilloried and that will start WW111!
There are no people who believe that diplomacy with Iran will stop them from building a nuclear bomb. There are many who pretend so, in order to prevent Israel from stopping Iran before it's too late. That's the game being played, and all who play it, openly or in secret, despise the existence of Israel and the Jews, no matter what they say. I firmly believe that Israel's government (under Netanyahu) understands the reality, and that it will act before it's too late. I also believe that Israel has good intel placed where it needs to be placed, and that the military has the tools necessary to destroy Iran's facilities. There is no nation on earth as capable as Israel, except perhaps the incomparable US military - currently being mishandled by an administration that should rightly be counted among the Jew haters. Because of the consequences that such action will have on the world's economy, political balances, and Arab reaction, which will be ferocious, Israel waits until it
If an Israeli attack on Iran hurt EU economy, the public (myself included) will demand breaking of all ties with Israel and effectively a total boycott as was the case with South-Africa. Anti-Semitism will increase enormously, for which the Jews will have themselves and Israel to blame for in that case.
When could Iran deliver a nuclear weapon? An article of a leading American physicist from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/when-could-iran-deliver-a-nuclear-weapon
Uncle Sam has turned them down, Putin has turned them down. No body is willing to support an attack on Iran. So the War Hawks have doubled down on their campaign of hysteria, fear and lie. They still expect the Bush/Cheney Iraq War Scare Play Book to work. And it might succeed in Israel, but the rest of the world - aside from Rupert Murdoch's News Corp - isn't buying it. Will israelis be willing to start a war Israel cannot finish just because some folks who refuse to produce any evidence they are right want to? The War Hawks tell us what they think, but the absolutely refuse to produce the evidence. That alone should give pause. Any war you have to lie to start, is one you don't need to fight.
good post. so how to proceed ?
Even if Iran is attacked, they still have the knowledge and enough uranium to build a bomb. Problem number one is that Israel's second strike ability will not dissuade Iran from it's shahid mentality. Problem number two is that an Iranian bomb is a Hizbollah bomb. The Iranian Quods brigade could certainly smuggle a weapon into Lebaonon to fire at Haifa or even Tel Aviv. Unlike Iran, Israel has never threatened to wipe another country off the map.
I used to believe that Iran is not after nukes before the elections. But seeing how Ahamdi/Khamenei ruthless beat, tortured, raped and killed their own people, there is no doubt in my mind that this current regime cannot be trusted. If they can do this to their own, then what will they do to foreigners??? Scary thought. However, I am not sure if a military strike on Irans NUCLEAR INSTALLATIONS ONLY(!) is the right thing to do either. Sanctions on the other hand are hard to achieve (thanks to Russia who is eating away our rights in the Caspian Sea at the same time).
The US Congress is not like the Knesset. It cannot act in the foreign policy arena without the agreement of the Presidency. It can only refuse to fund something or declare war. It has seldom done the former, and has failed to do the latter since December 1941. It cannot "announce sanctions that will be adopted by France, Germany, Britain and Canada." You are correct, Obama's busy. Meridor will just have to wait.
The whole world understands perfectly what is at stake and is waiting patiently for Israel to save its ass. Just like in 1981 at Osiraq. I would be surprised if the hypocritical condemnations last very long. People are too scared.
their own respective economies, unless they want a public outcry shattering their own hopes to govern any longer. The public is not ready to suffer the consequences of a disagreement or fight with Iran, that has nothing to do with them personally and will certainly refuse to do so, merely on behalf of a state that has neighter any credibility nor fiends among them.
But the West (Israel excepted) is too weak, fearful and stupid to realise it.
Considering its own nuclear program, Israel are the last people on the planet morally qualified to talk about 'deceptions'.
If Iran were honest it would open it's plants to inspection. It is behaving with duplicity so is willing to have deceitful talks to avoid real sanctions and continue it's deception. In the end, no bomb will hide the internal struggle between the fundamentalist Ayatollahs and the modern more secular Iranians, and that is the real time bomb. The fuel is the internet where Iran youth sees what freedom really is, and that the Ayatollahs are just a perverse reincarnation of the Shah's dictatorship pretending to be godly. Hah hah.
I don't know what deception Mr Harel is talking about. Iran has stated quite clearly and on numerous occasions that it will **NOT** halt its nuclear program. Now that may not be the answer the writer wants, but where exactly has Iran done other than what it said it will do?
...instead of the dubious doomsday scenario you paint of an Iran attaining nuclear weapons; I love the Bush junior fear and smear hype though, you are entertaining, but... Tell Israeli's your analysis about what happens when Iran gets nukes. Because get them Iran will if that is what it seeks, Israel certainly cannot stop it. So when they get a nuke will they fire it on Tel Aviv? I mean what do you suppose, that the Mullahs are actually insane as the lame rightwing posters in these comments always proclaim? Are they crazy enough in their ideology that they would actually commit nationcide by nuking Israel and then promptly being turned into a sea of glass? What you should really analyze is this question: Is Israel insane enough to nuke Iran either now or if it acquired nuclear weapons capability? From outside, Israel looks completely out of control. Analyze that.
just like Israel and its illegal settlements.