ANALYSIS / Hamas seems to believe Jews 'understand only force'

The sharp turns that Hamas has made in its policy concerning the cease-fire with Israel more resembles a speeding racecar than a government policy. Despite statements that the organization's top-brass have made about being willing to resume the cease-fire in its previous format, the resumption of massive Qassam fire from Gaza to Israel indicates that Hamas may have decided to push for a head-on confrontation with Israel.

However, despite the significant escalation as over 80 Qassam missiles were fired into Israeli towns Wednesday, Hamas' interest was and still is to resume the cease-fire with Israel. However, Hamas wants to improve the terms of the deal. In doing so, Hamas' regime in Gaza is taking a risk that could lead to its toppling.

It seems that Hamas' decision to escalate the situation actually owes in part to the moderate tone which characterized its senior leaders' statements on Tuesday. These so-called moderate statements made Hamas' leadership be perceived as caving under Israeli pressure. Hamas cannot afford to display such a weak public image and so its leaders took immediate action to regain the militant element.

The slaying of three Hamas militants near the border separating the Gaza Strip from Israel on Tuesday night also have served to persuade Hamas' leaders to opt for a confrontational position, as did Egyptian indifference to renewing the talks for a ceasefire. The fact that Israel did not open the crossings into the Strip to let in aid from Egypt was also believed to be connected to this decision.

Above all, the decision to renew the firing stems from an arrogant perception - which can also be observed from time to time on the Israeli side of the border - that the other side understands force better than anything else. Hamas seems to believe that "the Jews understand only force."

If violence at a low intensity fails to persuade Israel to let goods into the Strip, then, according to Hamas' approach, another escalation in violence could help Israel make the right decision. The organization's leadership expects an Israeli retaliation, but they assume it will be limited in scope. They deduce this from what they view as an Israeli reluctance to launch a massive land invasion.

As for Israeli air raids, assassinations and the sort, they would only serve to help Hamas regain some popularity - and not only in Gaza, but also in the West Bank and across the Arab-speaking world.

At this stage, it will be the lack of an Israeli retaliation that will corner Hamas. That way, Arab television channels will not broadcast images of martyrs out of Gaza, and the organization will not be perceived as causing the escalation. Hamas, then, may prefer to engage in negotiations even without an Israeli retaliation.

	Gaza militants preparing a Qassam rocket to fire at Israel. (AP)