ANALYSIS / Gaza gains have softened Israel stance on Shalit deal

The preoccupation of Israel's political-security leadership and media on the effort to resume the negotiations for the release of Gilad Shalit stems from two main phenomena: disappointment among the public - and specifically among soldiers who participated in the fighting in Gaza - at the fact that the war ended without freeing the abducted soldier, and the growing hope - it is still difficult to assess how well-founded - that the results of the operation in Gaza will expedite progress in the negotiations.

A Yedioth Aharonoth poll published this weekend bolsters the public sentiment on Shalit's release: 56 percent of those questioned said they believed the operation should not have stopped before Shalit was freed (compared to 36 percent who think otherwise); 66 percent support the release of prisoners "with blood on their hands" in exchange for Shalit, and only 25 percent are opposed. It seems that the public tolerance for concessions on the matter of Shalit has increased in light of the feeling in Israel that Hamas suffered a massive blow during the fighting.

Politicians are highly sensitive to the views of voters. It is therefore not coincidental that in recent days the press if full of reports on a possible softening of the stance of cabinet ministers, which may lead to a deal on Shalit.

Sources who spoke with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, both prior to the offensive in the Gaza Strip and after it was over, said that he is looking everywhere for a solution that would secure Shalit's release. It may be that a series of political developments may contribute to a deal: On the one hand, the return of Shalit will signal that Olmert has "cleared" his proverbial table of all pending business, and allow him to argue that not only did he change his ways since 2006, but also lifted one of the weightiest issues from his record. On the other hand, the next prime minister will be better off to start his/her tenure with a clean slate and the Shalit case behind them.

It may be that between the elections on February 10 and the time it takes to form a cabinet will be the best time for a deal. Accordingly, Olmert will bear the brunt of the concessions for Shalit's freedom. His successor to the premiership will support him tacitly.

Israel is still trying to link Shalit's release with the opening of the crossings to the Gaza Strip. This is a stance that Hamas rejects outright. From its point of view, the crossings is an urgent issue that needs to be solved immediately. Shalit is a matter for negotiation - about which the group maintains it will not compromise.

Last Sunday Hamas announced that it agreed to a cease-fire but restricted it to a week - during which time the IDF would pull out from the Gaza Strip and the crossings would be reopened. The army did leave the territory, but the crossings are open only for humanitarian aid to pass through, which is a lot less than the type of activity that Hamas is demanding.

At this point the group's leadership is suggesting that it will not resume the firing, but if talks with Egypt do not progress, Hamas may change its position. A spokesman for the group, Ismail Radwan, told Haaretz that after the damage caused by the IDF offensive, the group wants the crossings opened, including the one at Rafah.