The government was today supposed to hear a security briefing containing some positive signs, even though the administration of Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas still declines to accept security responsibility for any parts of the Palestinian Authority.
This week there had been a decline in the number of violent incidents, from 114 in the last week of May to 39 in the first week of June, when the two summits were held. But the optimism was soured yesterday morning with the attack on the Erez position, where four soldiers were killed.
The attack on the fort could be seen as the first Palestinian assault on the road map. It may have been by Hamas, but with the general encouragement of Yasser Arafat. The PA chairman is inciting elements in Fatah to act against Abbas and the commitments he undertook in the name of his government.
The significance of the decline in violence during the week of the Sharm el Sheikh and Aqaba summits was that it showed the Palestinians - in all their organizations, including the PA - are capable of controlling the level of attacks and the height of the flames of terror.
In recent weeks, the average number of incidents was 100. Fear of the Americans and the international attention directed at the summits inclined Fatah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad to order fewer and more cautious attacks.
That caution passed after the Aqaba summit and the speeches by U.S. President George Bush, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, King Abdullah, and Abbas. The problem is not only the decision by Hamas and Islamic Jihad to continue terror attacks. That was more or less expected after the end of talks between those organizations and Abbas and his people about a cease-fire (hudna).
The main problem is Arafat's attempt not to let Abbas deliver on his promises. For a long time, Arafat claimed he could not halt the terror attacks, and that they happened without his approval. So why should he allow Abbas succeed where he failed, especially now that he has been shoved aside to the wings of the international stage?
The most serious security problem is not the extremist Islamic organizations like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, but the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, associated with Fatah. It's doubtful there is any chance of the Palestinians meeting any of their obligations on the road map if Fatah people are still involved in terror. Therefore, Abbas and Mohammed Dahlan, his security minster, must start with a Fatah cease-fire.
That explains why Abbas and Dahlan are so reticent about accepting security responsibility for certain areas of the PA. Israel has already promised that the minute Palestinian security agencies are ready to accept responsibility, the IDF will pull out of those areas. Israel promises not to operate in those areas, unless it becomes evident the Palestinians completely fail to meet their promises.
The IDF, Shin Bet and defense ministry believe Abbas and Dahlan are sincere in their desire to end the terror attacks. The argument and criticism are focused on their methods. Dahlan has presented the Americans and Israelis his approach, but Israel says it's a "security concept" and not an operational plan.
Dahlan speaks in detail about building his organization's forces, and imposing law and order in the PA. He says the Palestinians will determine their own way of overcoming terror and he doesn't want Israel to teach him what to do.
Israel would prefer to get Palestinian responsibility, and a clear Palestinian plan with criteria for measuring Palestinian success in the war against terror.
