Analysis / Elections are the focus now

Ariel Sharon's office always expected U.S. President George W. Bush to stand by his promises to the prime minister and reject British Prime Minister Tony Blair's demand for immediate talks between Israel and the Palestinians. And when they saw the joint press conference given by Bush and Blair on Friday, they were not disappointed: Bush took care of Sharon.

Bush's remarks show that he wants to buy time and preserve his freedom of action until the nature of the new Palestinian leadership becomes clear. The United States views democracy as an essential condition for the establishment of a Palestinian state, and it pledged to help hold elections in the territories. Israel will also be required to contribute to the success of these elections, which are meant to legitimize Mahmoud Abbas as Yasser Arafat's heir.

Israel expects Abbas to be the only candidate, and a high voter turnout would strengthen his public standing. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and his British counterpart, Jack Straw - who will visit both Ramallah and Jerusalem next week - will give the new PA leadership an international embrace.

For now, at least, Bush has rejected Blair's proposal that the president convene an international peace conference or appoint a special American envoy to the region. He is sticking to Sharon's disengagement plan as the first step, and he will discuss a final-status agreement only after it is implemented. He views the road map peace plan as a "guide" for how to advance, not a binding procedure.

Bush publicly promised to devote his second term to establishing a Palestinian state, but he extended the timetable until the term ends in January 2009.

Senior Israeli government sources were pleased with Bush's remarks, saying they upheld the understandings between Washington and Jerusalem and underscored the disengagement plan's diplomatic achievement - preventing an imposed settlement.

In the coming days, diplomatic attention will focus on the impending Palestinian elections. The swift declaration of elections surprised the defense establishment, which had thought the Palestinians would need more time to organize them. Now the package of "gestures" it prepared already seems outdated: Elections will force Israel to remove its army from Palestinian cities, both to facilitate the campaign and so that the vote will not take place under Israeli guns. The defense establishment's plan, for a slow, phased withdrawal involving lengthy negotiations over each city, does not mesh with Palestinian elections in January.

The first example of the new policy was the army's redeployment outside Ramallah for Arafat's funeral, and Israel's decision to let Palestinian policemen there carry arms. For now, this decision is only valid until Tuesday, when the holiday marking the end of Ramadan finishes; at that point, there will be a reassessment. Yesterday, however, Israeli sources expressed satisfaction with the PA's handling of the funeral.

The prevailing opinion in Israel is that with Arafat dead, Abbas and his colleagues must be given time to get organized. They should not be embraced or deluged with "gestures;" instead, Israel should wait for talks at which each side will present its demands. Sharon's office has fond memories of working with Abbas during his brief stint as Palestinian prime minister in summer 2003, and it is hoping for a good relationship in the future as well.