ANALYSIS / Damascus bomb is latest event to shake Syrian security

Saturday's explosion in Damascus is the latest in a long series of events that have taken place over a little more than a year that reflect a serious deterioration in domestic security in Syria.

It joins the attack on the nuclear facility in northeastern Syria last September (for which Israel indirectly admitted responsibility), the assassination of the senior Hezbollah official Imad Mughniyeh, the assassination of the Syrian general Mohammed Suleiman, the murder of Khaled Meshal's secretary and a powerful explosion with dozens of casualties at a Syrian chemical factory.

Damascus has accused Israel of most of these incidents. In some cases Israel outright denied responsibility; in others, it declined to respond.

Most of the incidents left the Syrian leadership embarrassed and insecure. The widely held view in the Israeli defense establishment in recent months has been that Syrian President Bashar Assad would choose not to respond to the events and prefer to avoid an escalation with Israel, especially considering Syria's greatly improved international status in recent months. However, it should be remembered that the events in Syria are taking place in the context of an "ongoing settling of accounts" between Hezbollah and Israel in light of Hezbollah's accusation that Israel was behind the killing of Mughniyeh.

In recent weeks, Israeli security forces have been tense over two scenarios − an attempt by Hezbollah to avenge Mughniyeh's death by means of a large-scale attack on an Israeli target, or the bringing of anti-aircraft missiles into Lebanese territory, a development that Israel has defined as a "red line."