ANALYSIS / Border blast demands strong - but not excessive - Israeli response

With the bomb blast that killed an IDF tracker Tuesday along the border fence with the Gaza Strip, it is not only Israel's deterrent that has been reduced to a holding action, but also the political campaign of the ruling coalition, Kadima and Labor.

The way the military operation in the Gaza Strip dominates the political debate, even a week after the fighting ended, is still leaving little room for a different agenda.

Without such an option, Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak placed their hopes for improving their standing at the polls on the security card and on bolstering Israel's image versus Hamas.

Now a break-off faction from Hamas, which may have just turned a blind eye to the whole scheme, put paid to the Israeli leadership's plan. If Israel's deterrent capability in the Gaza Strip has indeed been restored, why has a soldier died there such a short while after the IDF pulled out?

Is this not further proof to the Likud's claim that the government needs to let the IDF "win" - in other words, to complete the job and crush Hamas?

Whether this was a matter of Israel forgetting to let the Palestinians know that the IDF had won, or it was a sophisticated Hamas trick to challenge Israel at a time when the impending election would prevent it from a renewed escalation, it is clear that now an appropriate military response is necessary. Tuesday's air attacks will not be the end of it, and after talks with the defense minister Tuesday, officers said that Hamas needs to be considered the sole party responsible for anything happening in the Gaza Strip.

The view is that even if the group that carried out the attack considers Hamas "soft," the fact that Hamas organization claims to be in control of the Strip makes it the appropriate target for Israel's wrath.

On the other hand, some of the intelligence officers interpreted the attack as an "aftershock" of the Gaza offensive: Palestinian forces on the ground have not entirely adjusted to the new rules of the game and to a full cease-fire.

Therefore, a hard, but measured, blow is required: Send a message to Hamas, but do not drag the region into a conflagration, certainly not before the election, and not on the day the special U.S. envoy for the Middle East, George Mitchell, is due to land in Israel.

However, all this may be missing the point, because, whereas Israel is sending messages in Hebrew, its target audience, the Hamas leadership, seems to understand nuances in Arabic.

If they do not feel their lives sufficiently threatened as a result of an Israeli response in the coming day, the whole situation may just repeat itself.

The mainstream view in Gaza argues that Hamas is now interested in preserving the cease-fire. Ayman Taha, a spokesman for the group, announced Monday that Hamas would maintain the truce until February 5, in anticipation of a broader, more comprehensive agreement.

On the other hand, Hamas wants to influence the Israel's February 10 election. In this regard, it supports a victory by the right, which will negate claims by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas that there is a partner for peace in Israel.

	The IDF jeep that was damaged in a blast that killed one soldier and wounded three on Tuesday.
	Photo by: (Reuters)