ANALYSIS / Bluffing or not, Abbas has shown he's no Arafat
Abbas' announcement on his possible resignation shows he isn't willing to risk his head for the Palestinians.
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff Tags: Mahmoud Abbas Israel news Yasser ArafatRAMALLAH - Thousands of Fatah supporters gathered yesterday in the Muqata in Ramallah to commemorate the fifth anniversary of the death of Yasser Arafat. The memorial ceremony quickly turned into a mass support rally for his successor, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
Key to everything is the uncertainty regarding Abbas' plans for the future. Only a week ago he declared that he did not intend to run again for the presidency of the PA. In what appears to have been a well-planned and calculated display of support - void of any spontaneity - the speakers at the rally urged Abbas to recall his announcement.
But Abbas is avoiding any direct reference to his plans. Instead, he once more charged Israel with scheming against the Palestinians. "Israel is trying to undermine a two-state solution," he said. "It is trying to play down the value of international support for a two-state solution."
He reiterated his position that negotiations will not be resumed as long as settlement construction is not halted entirely. Abbas also recapped the principles that will guide the Palestinians during negotiations: a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, Jerusalem as its capital, the release of prisoners, and the right of return for refugees in line with UN Resolution 194.
On Hamas, Abbas said his hand is still extended for reconciliation; he called on the group to sign the Egyptian proposal for ending the conflict with Fatah. "We accepted the Egyptian document and we call on Hamas to accept the deal without reservations," Abbas said. He added that Hamas is waiting for him to resign and hinted that he does not plan to do so before his term ends.
At the end of his address, Abbas made it clear he does not intend to comment on his statements last Thursday regarding his decision not to seek reelection. Thus major question marks remain.
He said there would be "decisions and directions that I will take in the future," but did not give details.
Looking at things from Israel's point of view, Abbas' conduct only reinforces suspicions that his declaration last week was a "hold-me-back" move. Defense officials point out that Abbas had not announced his plans to step down from two other posts: PLO chairman and Fatah head.
These are the sources of authority for any PA president; they basically allow him to continue running things, even if he resigns from the presidency.
Yesterday's rally appears to be an attempt by Abbas to leverage Arafat's memory into support for him as part of his political struggle with Hamas. In any case, Israeli observers say Abbas is keeping all possibilities open, for the time being at least. It's possible that in the end he will step down. This would probably pose a serious problem for Israel, not only because a relatively stable partner would be lost, but also because of the succession struggle that would ensue in Fatah. This could descend into violence that might also be directed against Israel.
In any case, despite the initial impression in the Israeli media after the meeting in Washington between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Barack Obama, it appears the political process is making progress, even if this involves understandings that for the time being have been kept under wraps.
The announcements from the White House and the Prime Minister's Bureau describing the meeting between Netanyahu and Obama as positive were not meant to merely deal with the embarrassment over the difficulties setting up the meeting in the first place.
Both countries seem to have put aside old disagreements. It remains to be seen what influence this will have on Abbas and whether this will rally the PA to favor direct negotiations.
Gray speech, gray character
Abbas began his speech at the Muqata two hours after the event began. The crowd was eager to hear him speak after a series of uneventful addresses by other speakers. All the top members of the Palestinian leadership were there, in addition to thousands of Palestinians from all over the West Bank, including many children whose schools had been closed by edict.
Still, the yard at the Muqata was not packed with people, contrary to what one might expect relying on the Palestinian media. Abbas was cheered when he took the floor, but many in the crowd quickly appeared bored by the long speech. They went back to their business - smoking, joking and eating.
Abbas is not a charismatic speaker, certainly nothing like his predecessor. Arafat knew how to carry the masses. Abbas tired them with endless talk on the negotiations with Israel. Many must have felt nostalgia for Arafat, who knew to promise struggle using slogans that were often empty of content.
Archive clips on Al-Jazeera yesterday only made the differences between the two men appear greater. "They [the Israelis] want me to be a prisoner or an exile. But I tell them no! I will be a shaheed [martyr], shaheed, shaheed!" Arafat's vows are far removed from his successor's style. Abbas' announcement on his possible resignation from the presidency only stresses how, contrary to Arafat, he is not willing to risk his head for the Palestinian problem.
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Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. |
| Photo by: (Getty Images) |
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there's little chance bibi can get anywhere in talks w/the pals even if the 2 sides eventually sat down. the way things stand the pals keep holding all the trumps & the world will understandingly side w/them blaming israel for intransigence. more than ever israel now needs to be an equal partner in talks so real light can be shed on 'exactly who's holding back what' in a final attempt to close the gaps, a 'now or never'. there have been more than enough rounds testing this terrain. the pals used to reject israeli offers, but later referring to these stages as actually having been close to a breakthrough, as in taba /during olmert's tenure. that means one needs a similar confrontation where no more excuses are acceptable & the full picture is exposed for all to see. the parameters are already more /less set. if enough territory is relinquished, would the pals be able to commit to a lasting deal, demilitarize & give up on ROR? we need things to come to a head just like that.
"Palestinian leadership were there, in addition to thousands of Palestinians from all over the West Bank, including many children whose schools had been closed by edict." Here is another reason that makes me despise this leadership. Schools had been closed by edict so innocent kids can gather to show support for someone who is hijacking the Palestinian leadership through the Israeli-American support.
This article reveals once more how much Israeli analysts underestimate the intelligence of the Palestinian public. Abbas gave his speech in Ramallah where there are doubtless many who are highly relieved that Abbas is not Arafat. The fact that he is not Arafat and that under his leadership life for at least some Palestinians has settled into a semblance of normality actually holds out much more hope for a peace deal than if he had been another maverick. To paraphrase something in one of the old Books, for everything there is a season, and a time for every purpose under heaven. Wisdom, even if it can be a little boring, needs to prevail now. Issacharoff and Harel should stick to analysis and cut out cheap jibes.
When it came to the crunch at Camp David and Barak was willing to give the store away, Arafat didn't dare to agree to end of struggle and any compromises for fear of being killed. He didn't counteroffer, but instead started the 2nd intifada to take the pressure off himself. When Olmert was willing to give away the store to Abbas secretly just before the elections, Abbas didn't respond, and when the Americans made Bibi say he accepted a Palestinian state, Abbas got cold feet and upped the ante asking for a settlement freeze (why didn't he ask Olmert? because he might have gotten it and lost that pretext). Then he started trouble in Jerusalem to take the pressure off himself and make Israeli concessions harder. He knows it's a death sentence to concede what Arafat and Hamas didn't.
Abbas is not so flamboyant as Arafat, nor so corrupt and murderous. We all should be thankful, and whoever his ultimate replacement may be, he will probably be worse for the two nations. It is time for Bibi to sit at the negotiating table, and he himself should realize he is no gift to history. But the two have been chosen to end the conflict, or continue it, and they have a golden opportunity to improve history. Let us all pray they take it.
Israeli analysis and the government is gambling on Abbas just bluffing. But they forget that Netanyahu is a known quantity. There is no good faith intent in Netanyahu. And his coalition is proof he has no intents to make peace on any terms Palestinians will accept. His and the government's actions are all the proof the Palestinians need. Lack of good faith and benign intent has been demonstrated repeatedly since February alone. Israeli gov actions speak loudly. So Abbas is no rabble-rouser and won't call the Palestinians to arms. Is killing people the only action that will bring a Likud government to consider stopping? If so, it seems a poor standard. And if Netanyahu is looking for more than the peace of the conqueror, he'll need to demonstrate more then just contempt for his allies and for prior agreements made by his own party and government. Call Abbas bluff if you think it is one. But be prepared to take back the $1 billion in costs of occupation if he's not.
"Defense officials point out that Abbas had not announced his plans to step down from two other posts: PLO chairman and Fatah head." Note: the former position gives him the legal authority to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state. "These are the sources of authority for any PA president;" Note: resigning from the PA presidency while maintaining his PLO chairmanship allows him to roll up the PA, and doing THAT will then free the Pals from the Oslo Accords. Thus leaving him free to stand up as the chairman of the PLO and unilaterally declare the independent state of Palestine. And you guys really don't understand that? His declared intention to resign is not ONLY a "hold me back" tactic; it ALSO clears the deck should he decide to unilaterally declare the Palestinian state. Because, inter alia, whilst Bibi is PM that's the ONLY way the Pals will get their state. *sheesh* Talk about sticking your collective heads in the sand...
Avi you are right about Abbas, but where did you invent this odd myth about Arafat. Only one Arab leader has been willing to risk his head for his people and Sadat paid the ultimate price. Arafat was a shameful opportunist who would not change strategy to help his people because he was more interested in promoting himself and his own myth than the Palestenian future. It is becoming tragically clear who Abbas picked as his role model.
Abbas is doing the only thing he realistically can do. Israel is not empowering him, so the only way for him to save the moderates is to stand up for Palestinian principles and step out of the race. Then, at least the dignity and sanctity of the moderate movement will be preserved. Otherwise, extremists would be empowered, as I think Israel did not plan to allow pre-1967 borders anyway, even though they agreed to it in the Road Map.
Abbas has spent the last 5 years of his life on a fools errand. He has tried to negotiate an agreement for a peaceable solution to the Israeli/Palestinian problem. Olmert was always unwilling to allow a conclusion and Netanyahu has made it absolutely certain there will be no conclusion. Obama served to prolong the agony because it seemed he might be willing to press Israel to make a deal. And then Obama made it clear he was dedicated to kow-towing to israel and that there would be no peaceful solution. Israel's Netanyahu government achieved it's objective. Hope for peace was destroyed. As violence is the only hope Palestinians have left, Abbas, a man of peace, has no choice but resign before he ends up with the blame for the third intifada that Israel's Netanyahu desires. Why 'bluff' when your enemy as bluffed your ally into total submission? There is nothing to gain by a bluff. At least if Abbas retires before the bloodshed starts, then he cannot be blamed.
Whether Abbas meant to resign as a political tactic or not is irrelevant. Hopefully Abbas is starting to see the writing on the wall. Israel will not end the occupation, they will only put another spin on it. Palestinians need to wake up to the fact that Israel will not willingly allow them to have a real country. They will be allowed to have small ghettos inside the "democratic, Jewish" state. Rabin is viewed as a man of peace, but the truth is he would not have agreed to a real Palestinian country. The only thing to change this attitude is to highlight the apartheid nature of Israel and to encourage the decent people of the world to boycott Israeli products. I know this will not 'make' it to the talkback, but I believe it necessary to speak out against oppression.
There will be convulsions on the path to one state but it's inevitable now. People are starting to see it. Because the solution that Bibi has in mind a stump state with no sovereignty will never fly. Just delaying the inevitable
But he already has risked it. He is like a DeGaul or Churchill - willing to resign if he cannot succeed!