Analysis / Army feared a mass march toward its troops

From the start of the present confrontation, in September 2000, the Israel Defense Forces have dreaded the possibility of a Palestinian edition of a Kafr Kana-style massacre.

A mass killing of innocent civilians, the IDF feared, like the 100 Lebanese refugees killed by Israeli artillery fire in the Grapes of Wrath operation in April 1996, could lead to the cessation of Israel's military offensive, sharp condemnation from the world and forced international supervision.

Yesterday, albeit with fewer casualties, this scenario was enacted in Rafah, at the worst possible timing for the prime minister, the defense minister and the general staff.

The refuseniks demonstrating outside the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv yesterday spoke of a "patently illegal order" and of "murdering demonstrators." But in this case, as usual, the killing derives more from error or negligence than malice.

It is hard to believe that any IDF force received an order to shoot shells at demonstrators. This is Kafr Kana, not Kafr Qassem.

The preliminary IDF investigation yesterday indicates that the IDF feared a mass march toward its troops in the Tel A-Sultan quarter in Rafah. The forces were ordered to take escalating measures to keep the hundreds of demonstrators - who included armed men, the IDF said - from confronting the soldiers.

First a helicopter shot warning flares, then fired a missile into open territory, then machine gun fire and finally three tank shells. The IDF says they were aimed at an abandoned building at a safe distance from the crowd. Apparently shrapnel from the shells and the structure hit the procession and killed people, or one shell deviated from its course. The question is whether the tank crew received the correct information about the procession. A tank shell is not an accurate weapon and this is not the first time that shells caused the killing of civilians. Only two months ago a battalion commander and an armored regiment commander were put on criminal trial following the shooting of shells to enforce a curfew in Jenin and killed four residents, three of them children.

The fighting in densely populated Rafah is especially complicated, but yesterday's occurrence is not new to the IDF. In the first two months of the conflict, armed men acting under cover of a crowd were a common occurrence and the IDF developed ways of fighting it, using mainly snipers. There are also other riot-control means. Whoever ignores these options and instead shoots tank shells to disperse a crowd is playing with fire. In view of the fighting in urban territory, yesterday's killing was almost to be expected.

Such conduct is part of the IDF's increasing insensitivity toward Palestinian civilian casualties. From draconian opening-fire instructions in the Gaza Strip at the beginning of the fighting, when dozens of Palestinians who approached the security fence or the settlements paid with their lives, through the decision to assassinate Hamas leader Salah Shehade, despite the dozens of civilians surrounding him, to the indifference of the military prosecution - too few inquiries and indictments after two many civilian casualties.

Once we regard the killing of a civilian or two in almost every assassination as routine, even tank fire near a demonstration no longer seems to be crossing the line.

The southern command top brass were yesterday planning to continue the operation, but the decision has been taken out of the IDF's hands. Now it is up to Jerusalem and Washington. Meanwhile, the Palestinians have convinced the world yet again, this time with pictures, that the IDF is deliberately targeting civilians.

Operation Rainbow was born in sin, because it was approved, as usual, as a hot-headed reaction to losses and because it endangered the lives of too many Israeli soldiers and Palestinian civilians. Most important, it was wrong because it was launched after a large number of Israelis demonstrated on Saturday night in Tel Aviv that they were convinced the IDF has no business in Gaza. This will not be the week Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon will want to remember from his term in office.