An early win in the next war

The Israel Navy yesterday seized a cargo ship in the Mediterranean carrying rockets and other weapons heading from Iran to Hezbollah.

Commandos raided the Francop, which was flying the flag of Antigua, some 180 kilometers off the Israeli coast. During the search, which the crew did not resist, commandos found dozens of containers carrying more than 3,000 122mm- and 107mm-caliber rockets, shells and small-caliber ammunition.

Senior navy officers say the shipment - destined for the Syrian port of Latakia - contained enough armaments to last Hezbollah for a month of fighting against Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement last night charging Iran with criminally assisting terrorism and called on the international community to unite against Tehran. In January 2002, a similar event, the capturing of the Iranian ship the Karine A, was a turning point in the clash between Israel and the Palestinians in the second intifada.

The capture of a large amount of weapons and ammunition on its way to the Palestinian Authority under Yasser Arafat convinced the Bush administration that it could no longer trust the Palestinian leader.

As a result of the 2002 raid, then-prime minister Ariel Sharon gained the tacit support of the Americans for Operation Defensive Shield, which nearly brought down Arafat's rule and eventually halted the suicide bombings originating in the West Bank.

In the coming days Israel will use the Francop affair to try to do to Iran what it did to Arafat seven years ago. There are many comparisons to the capturing of the Karine A; yesterday's catch took in five to 10 times more weapons but no long-range missiles. But more important is the affair's political value. In Iran's dialogue on its nuclear program with the international community, it has been shown willing to trick its interlocutors and violate international law.

A series of Security Council resolutions starting in 2006 have limited trade with Iran, particularly the export of arms from the Islamic Republic. Now the Iranians have been found red-handed - an Iranian company involved in the exporting of arms to Hezbollah as Western suspicions of Iran peak after Tehran's murky response to the compromise proposal on uranium enrichment. Tehran's "yes, but..." in response to the transfer of its enriched uranium to Russia was interpreted in the West as a no.

However, it's doubtful that Israel will be able to achieve the same degree of political success it had with the Karine A, not just because the current president of the United States is Barack Obama. Israel will have to back its public relations effort with intelligence data. For example, last time the Iranians forgot to wipe off some of the Farsi writing on the weapons. This time they were a little more careful, even though the print in English looks a bit odd.

The navy was keen to give the impression that yesterday's operation was routine. This is not true: The commandos boarded the vessel amid stormy seas and high winds - but they knew what they were looking for. Such pinpoint precision at high seas requires detailed intelligence. The name chosen for the operation, Four Species, suggests that the planning began some time ago. Despite what is commonly believed, names for Israel Defense Forces operations are not just the responsibility of a computer.

The capture of the ship contributes to our understanding of Hezbollah's preparations ahead of the next round of fighting with Israel. The Shi'ite organization is certain that such a clash will happen, regardless of the developments in Iran. The amount of weapons captured suggests an army, not a guerrilla or terrorist organization.