Race is on for position of next IDF chief of staff

The candidates are Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Benny Ganz, GOC Northern Command Gadi Eisenkot, GOC Southern Command Yoav Gallant and possibly also Maj. Gen. (res.) Moshe Kaplinsky, a former deputy chief of staff who is now CEO of Better Place, Shai Agassi's electric vehicle initiative.

Last summer, when Ganz was appointed deputy chief of staff as a compromise between Ashkenazi and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, it was widely assumed that this improved Ganz's chances of following Ashkenazi. Eisenkot, who had been Ashkenazi's candidate for deputy, agreed to remain GOC Northern Command for a fourth year, and this was perceived as a concession over the top post. Eisenkot, who is a year younger than Ganz and two years younger than Gallant, presumably can stay in active service and aspire to be the 21st chief of staff.

Barak will play a key role, if his political travails don't push him out of the Defense Ministry. The chief of staff has limited influence on who succeeds him, especially after his last deputy is appointed. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will undoubtedly be involved, but he tends to leave appointments to the defense minister, especially since the two ministers have a good relationship.

Ashkenazi is telling everyone that he has no intention of staying a single minute beyond the four-year term. However, some of his fans are imagining extending his term to five years, due to the Iranian nuclear threat and the sense that no successor is ready. Similar arguments extended Shin Bet security service chief Yuval Diskin's term to six years, and Mossad chief Meir Dagan's term to eight years.

In the meantime, only a few people are filling new roles among the top brass. There are three reasons for the delays: disagreements (and sometimes tension) between the defense minister and the chief of staff; Ashkenazi's dislike of decisions over top appointments (because someone always ends up feeling slighted or wanting to retire); and the fact that most of the appointments are linked to the next chief of staff and his preferences.

When Barak decides, appointments move quickly. There has been major turnover at the Defense Ministry over the past few months - a director general, a military secretary and two division chefs have been replaced, and a media advisor has resigned. As opposed to the previous bureau, which was torn between two rival aides, military secretary Brig. Gen Eitan Dangot (who has since been promoted to coordinator of activities in the territories) and bureau chief Brig. Gen. Mike Herzog (who is now retiring), there is now one focus of power: the new bureau chef, Yoni Koren. Koren was Barak's bureau chief when he was deputy chief of staff and has returned to the picture after a long absence.

Last week the defense minister appointed Brig. Gen. Ophir Shoham as director of weapons systems infrastructure development, replacing Brig. Gen. (res.) Shmuel Keren. If the procedure for appointing majors general is that the chief of staff recommends and the defense minister approves, in the case of Shoham's post, the decision is in the hands of the defense minister alone. Barak ignored Ashkenazi's opinion - the chief of staff thought he should appoint the head of the Command, Control and Communication Branch, Maj. Gen. Ami Shafran. Moreover, many people at the General Command heard about Barak's decision only from the media, after his bureau issued a statement.

Things get even more complicated when the prime minister enters the picture. A few months ago Maj. Gen. Meir Klifi, Netanyahu's military secretary, resigned. Klifi, who disliked the chief of staff's conduct toward the government, also knew that Ashkenazi had no intention of promoting him.

Last week, Netanyahu received a new military secretary, Brig. Gen. Yohanan Locker, who was promoted to the rank of major general. Locker, whose previous position was deputy air force head, had not been on the short list, but was added at the last minute. Barak and Ashkenazi have high regard for Locker, but had initially slated him for other General Staff positions. He was apparently chosen by Netanyahu himself.

Both Barak and Ashkenazi believe that the military secretary should be only brigadier general, but for some reason they did not insist on this.

Locker increases the air force's proportion of the General Staff. For the first time, four majors general from the air force are filling key positions. Netanyahu now may discuss theoretical attacks on Iran with Military Secretary Locker, Air Force Commander Ido Nechushtan, Military Intelligence Head Amos Yadlin and Planning Branch Head Amir Eshel.

Last week another senior appointment came into effect, commander of the Northern Corps. The previous commander, Maj. Gen. (res.) Udi Shani, had been appointed director general of the Defense Ministry. Ashkenazi chose Ma. Gen. Gershon Hacohen, commander of the IDF Colleges, to replace him. The chief of staff made a safe call, deciding against promoting any of the brigadier generals who were eyeing the position.

The most outstanding and admired brigadier general is Aviv Kochavi, who recently completed his stint as head of Operations Directorate at the General Staff. He was commander of the Gaza Division when Gilad Shalit was abducted, but ultimately he will be promoted even if the Shalit deal is not completed anytime soon. Ashkenazi is considering giving him a dramatic promotion, to head of Military Intelligence. Barak, who also holds Kochavi in high esteem, is not sure this is appropriate a major general's first assignment. Even if Barak agrees to the appointment, he will likely make it contingent on a long period of overlap. If not Military Intelligence, Kochavi will apparently become head of the Operations Directorate.

Another outstanding brigadier general waiting for promotion is Armored Corps officer Yaakov Ayish, who currently does not have an assignment.

Before his fourth year as chief of staff ends, Ashkenazi will apparently have to appoint a new head of Command, Control and Communication and a new commander of the IDF Colleges. The new head of Military Intelligence also depends on the next chief of staff. If Eisenkot is not the next chief of staff, he may get Military Intelligence. Top army sources say that last year, Military Intelligence head Major General Amos Yadlin agreed to Ashkenazi's request that he stay on for a fifth year, which starts this month, mainly in order to block Gallant from getting the position. However, Yadlin already has made it clear that if Eisenkot is assigned to replace him, he will step down as quickly as possible.