Inside Intel / This time, Germany was invited

In recent weeks, headlines have been of full of reports about the efforts to free abducted soldier Gilad Shalit. Most of the information came from Arab sources in general, and Palestinian sources in particular, and their reliability is dubious. But even though they are aware of this, the Israeli media have had no qualms about recycling these reports and giving them sensational play.

One of the reasons for this are the strict restrictions that the military censor has imposed. Even the very fact that bi-lateral mediation is taking place via Egypt and Germany was censored until recently. It was revealed only by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

Incidentally, the German mediator is not Ernst Uhrlau, the head of the Federal Intelligence Service, BND, as was reported in several Palestinian news sources and recycled in the Israeli media.

The mediator is one of Uhrlau's subordinates but it is forbidden to publish his name in Israel. According to the German weekly Der Spiegel, it was Israel that asked for German mediation.

On the face of it, the Germans have no advantage over the Egyptians. They are not more familiar with the arena or the players and they have less leverage over Hamas. Their only advantage is the experience they have chalked up over the past decade and a half in their contacts with Hezbollah.

For the Egyptians, the Shalit issue is a relatively marginal matter within the larger interest of preventing Islamist influences in the Gaza Strip and the consequent influence it would have on Egypt.

In the opinion of the Egyptians, this danger can be kept at bay mainly by achieving a reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. The way they see it, when an internal Palestinian arrangement is reached, the Shalit question will be resolved accordingly.

Hamas too has nothing to lose from German involvement. On the one hand they are well aware that the BND and the Mossad have a long history of cooperation, but at the same time they wish to bring to an end the international boycott and they hope that agreement to German mediation will also lead to recognition and receiving legitimacy from the European Union, without having to pay a heavier price.

The Dekel way

It is therefore worthwhile repeating to ourselves some basic truths that have gotten lost in the flood of words. Let's call them "the Ofer Dekel way", after the man who until June of this year was in charge of the negotiations for freeing Shalit. Haggai Hadas, who replaced him, is following in his footsteps.

Shalit's release is not just around the corner. The deal depends on the Israeli government. Hamas is not in any hurry even though there is a certain amount of pressure on it too from the Palestinian prisoners' families who would like to see their loved ones freed. On the other hand, time is running out for Israel. Shalit has been held captive now for three and a half years already.

Hamas has agreed to drop its demand to free 1,000 terrorists and will make do with 450. It has been agreed that they will be released in two stages, with short intervals between them. Simultaneously, Shalit will be transferred to Egyptian guardianship and at the end of the process will be returned to Israel.

Ehud Olmert's government forwent its initial refusal not to release "terrorists with blood on their hands." The Shin Bet security service defined a number of categories of severity for these cases.

Toward the end of its term of office, the Olmert government made another concession and agreed to release 325 terrorists, including some who had "blood on their hands", who were involved as collaborators in terror attacks or who participated in attacks in which Arabs were killed.

There is still lack of agreement over 125 terrorists. These are terrorists who were involved in the particularly serious attacks at the Dolphinarium in Tel Aviv, the Sbarro restaurant in Jerusalem, the Matza restaurant in Haifa, the Park Hotel in Netanya, bus 405 near Jerusalem and others. They include Israeli Arabs and residents of East Jerusalem, which Israel had also refused to release in the past.

There are a number of prominent leaders on the list such as Marwan Barghouti from Fatah and Ahmed Saadat from the Popular Front who are not considered by Israel to be eligible for release.

The Olmert government looked as if it were taking one step forward and two back. These acrobatics were the result also - or perhaps mainly - of the expert opinions handed down by "security authorities." Shin Bet head Yuval Diskin and Mossad head Meir Dagan expressed vehement opposition to the release of all 450 terrorists. Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi expressed weak support for Dekel's plan.

This week Barak again changed course and made remarks in which he hinted at opposition to a deal on the basis of what Hamas is demanding.

Therefore Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing government will have to decide whether it is prepared to make a courageous and far-reaching decision - despite "professional" opinions from the heads of the security establishment - a decision that will bring upon it the wrath of the right.

But it must also be aware that time is not in its favor nor is it working to Shalit's benefit. The slogan of "not giving in to terror" is a hollow cliche. All the Israeli governments since 1967 have given in to terror and have made deals, some of them for the better and some of them for worse.