Experts say Iran has clear path to nuclear weapons
Harvard University simulation showed U.S. will not attack Iran and U.S.-Israel relations will deteriorate.
By Yossi Melman Tags: Iran sanctions Barack Obama Iran nuclear Israel newsLast week the Harvard Kennedy School held a simulation game of the Iranian nuclear crisis, and Israel should be very concerned about its course and its outcome.
The game made it clear: Iran will not stop on its path to producing nuclear weapons. The United States will not embark on a military action and will find it difficult to enlist support at the United Nations for imposing more severe sanctions, while relations between Israel and the United States will deteriorate.
Prof. Graham Allison, a leading analyst of American security policy for decades, conducted the game, whose participants were representatives from countries and organizations likely to be affected by the real outcome.
Israel was represented by Dore Gold, former ambassador to the United Nations, and Dr. Shai Feldman, currently at Brandeis University, and by a former brigadier general and a nuclear physicist. Their decisions were made by consensus. The U.S. team, headed by Nicholas Burns, who was an assistant to former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice during the administration of George W. Bush and was responsible for the "Iranian portfolio," included Admiral William Fallon, head of U.S. Central Command from 2007-2008.
Iran was represented by Prof. Gary Sick of Columbia University, who was a member of the U.S. National Security Council under Jimmy Carter.
Also participating were American and European academics (some of them former government officials), representing Russia, China, U.K., France and Germany and the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar). Also present as observers - the game lasted an entire day - were journalists David Ignatius of the Washington Post and David Singer of The New York Times, who "played" the media. All the participants promised to maintain secrecy about the game and not to reveal the identity of the participants, but details have leaked in the United States and now here as well.
Dynamic revealed
The rules of the game permitted the participants to conduct bilateral or multilateral discussions and contacts, to leak information to the media, to make public declarations and to provide one another with intelligence information. True, it was only an exercise, but it tried to simulate reality. It's possible the decision-making process of the participants was biased because of their worldview, because of partial information or the absence of genuine responsibility for the outcome. But the game revealed a dynamic that is reminiscent of the reality familiar to anyone who keeps tabs on the nuclear crisis with Iran and reflects that reality. Burns in the role of President Barack Obama tried everything possible to prevent a military confrontation fearing this would lead to a serious retaliation from Iran and effect the hundreds of thousands of U.S. soldiers deployed in Iraq, in the Gulf and in Afghanistan.
Gold, in the role of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, tried to enlist all the participants in imposing serious economic sanctions on Iran, designed to hit its "soft underbelly" - its oil and gas industries. Saudi Arabia and the other members of the GCC, which worry about the possibility of Iran having nuclear weapons, joined in the effort. But when Israel tried to reach clandestine understandings with them, they refused (in reality, there is a secret cooperation). The United States operated exclusively through the UN Security Council in reaching a decision on sanctions, but encountered evasion by China and Russia. In the final analysis the U.S. failed to impose the sanctions on Iran, and it turned out that Russia and China even maneuvered behind its back. Their companies made deals with Iran to provide what it requires instead of Western companies.
New tactic
At this point the U.S. administration switched to a new tactic, one designed to extort a promise from Israel that under no condition would it attack Iran without U.S. permission. Gold-Netanyahu refused, and a very unpleasant exchange of words developed between him and Burns-Obama. "Our most serious problem is how to restrain Israel," Burns told Ignatius after the game. In a desperate attempt the Americans tried to tempt Israel and offered it a defensive treaty and a nuclear umbrella if it gave up the military option. Israel rejected the offer, with Gold insisting on the principle that Israel has a right to self-defense and refusing to subordinate the little freedom of action Israel still has to American interests.
"The game," summed up Gold, who conveyed its findings to the relevant authorities in Israel (as the leaders of the game presumably did to their colleagues in the Obama administration) "made it clear to me that the U.S. is going from a policy designed to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons to an approach that accepts the possibility that it will have nuclear weapons and to deter it from using them by means of containment. Israel continues to believe that Iran must be prevented from arming itself with nuclear weapons."
Conclusions: The U.S. will not attack Iran. Russia and China will not agree to imposing serious sanctions. The U.S. will pressure Israel to prevent it from attacking Iran, and so a serious crisis is liable to develop between the two countries. Under these circumstances and in view of operational capability, Israel does not in effect have a real option of attacking Iran. If it so desires, Iran can produce nuclear weapons.
Bar Gil will stay
The degree to which the Defense Ministry continues to show contempt for public opinion and to make decisions based on individuals rather than on practical considerations is evident in the latest episode concerning Victor Bar Gil, its deputy director general. His boss, Pinhas Buchris, wanted to transfer him and, as published in Haaretz, cushioned his exit with a tailored-made post - head of the ministry delegation in Thailand. Bar Gil prepared and even made three preliminary tours to Bangkok and neighboring Cambodia and Vietnam. But, it turns out, Buchris is retiring. Bar Gil says he is not interested in going to Thailand and wants to remain deputy director general. He now has the hutzpah to advise his ministry to close the Bangkok office, arguing that it is unneeded.
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Satellite image of Iranian uranium enrichment facility near Qom. |
| Photo by: (Reuters) |
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for anyone, because that would very likely lead to war with China and possibly Russia, and either one could destroy the US multiple times over. Even if China and Russia held back, the US economy would fall through the basement and most Americans would be starving in the cold because energy costs would make the cost of food production and transportation too high for 90% of the US population. War has very real consequences whether you want to face them or not. BTW - NYC would be hit very hard by a severe energy shortage - what would you eat? Basically the US congress can do nothing about Iran and Iran has no fear of the US, for very good reasons.
21 Ron, on the issue of "Iran Nukes". You scare me stiff. Do you sincerely believe that the God of Israel blessed the burning fosfor on the children in Gaza? Israel or the US will never attack Iran. They would have done so long ago if they knew they were going to be successfull. But it is not the same as attacking Gaza or Lebanon or Granada or Iraq. Iran will fight back and they will cause havoc. With or without nukes.
Of course they do. Theocratic racist Israel created such a path by being the first to have nuclear WMD in the Middle East! Now others are racing along the same path.
Experts(?)at Harvard presented no evidence that Iran is developing nuclear weapons but failed to mention that Israel is the only state in the Middle East that was allowed to have nuclear weapons. I wish Harvard will find time to simulate more than 60 years of atrocities and brutality of the Israeli Army. Nearly three million Palestinians everyday face the Israeli army checkpoints, curfews, random shootings, arbitrary arrests and air raids. At a Nablus checkpoint, an old man was made to strip, get down on all fours and bark like a dog before he could enter his city. Women in labour routinely wait at checkpoints until some give birth there and see their babies die. However, I understand that anyone attempt to represent the true ugly history of Israel will be labeled as anti semitic.
"Israel has many leaders in the Knesset, if given the chance would do the same to others as Iran wants to do to Israel". So you believe Iran wants to Nuke Israel Moshe? Why not just come clean and divulge the true nature of your interest in Israel, and of course while you're at it... your real name.
Youosted: "To those comparing Israel and Iran. Israel is said to have nuclear weapons. It uses its policy of ambiguity as a defensive measure and might use Nukes as a defensive last resort. Iran is lead, tyrannically, by leaders who have explicitly, repeatedly and unambiguously declared their unwavering intention to wipe Israel off the face of the earth." Israel is led by tyranic leader like Sharon in the past and Netanyahu in the present, who both stated more than once on national television that they would consider wiping the entire Palestinian population off the map. Remember the Shatilla incident where the IDF went into Lebanon and targetted the Shatilla refugee camp killing more than 2,000 defenseless Palestinians. Israel does not need to use the bomb, because they have the USA taking care of their dirty work in the middle east, Iraq, is one example. Israel has many leaders in the Knesset, if given the chance would do the same to others as Iran wants to do to Israel.
You posted: "...`Iran had mastered the Bomb` says the slogan. Let`s go and bomb Iran demands Israel." Israel has not only mastered the bomb, Israel has a nuclear bomb, so if those who claim that Iran should be bombed for just mastering the bomb, Israel therefor should be wiped off the map. Right?, No!, because if Israel has the bomb, everone in the region should be able to and has the same right to have the bomb, otherwise take the bomb away from Israel. This planet was not created for Israel and the USA to dictate to other how they can live their lives, no one appointed Israel and the USA as the planet's police force or world dictators.
There's a fire a' burning, and it's not Israel who ignited it, but the good honest people of Iran.The Slim pickens character isn't played by Netanyahu. Netanyahu will not murder his own people or repress Women, but Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs will.The Doctor is the Icon tied to the bomb, in all his glory. If this not the case then try explaining it to the Israelis, who are quite rightly scared stiff by the possibility of an extremist fanatical Iran who doesn't mind sacrificing millions of its own people. Console them Chris. Tell them it will be alright, because right now I don't think they'll buy your argument. Remember the Jews have experienced Genocide before and your words of comfort aren't anything new,
Agree 100%, and the same should go if israel attacks iran. So if israel attacks Iran the full force of the US military should counter attack Israel
Any nation with the money a competent university, and modern industry has a 'clear path' to nuclear weapons. This is not a new concept.
US/Russia India/Pakistan and now... Iran/Israel
THE US SHOULD GIVE IRAN NOTICE THAT UNLESS IT AGREES TO RUSSIAN URANIUM ENRICHMENT AND CONTROL, THE US--WITH GREAT FANFARE--SHOULD SIGN A HILARY CLINTON-STYLE DEFENSE TREATY WITH ISRAEL STATING THAT AN IRANIAN ATTACK ON ISRAEL--NUCLEAR OR OTHERWISE--OR THE PROVIDING OF ANY NUCLEAR CAPACITY TO OTHERS--WILL RESULT IN A FULL-SCALE COUNTERATTACK BY ALL US FORCES. AND, IF THE DETERMINATION TO SIGN SUCH A TREATY DOESN'T DETER IRAN'S WEAPONIZING AGENDA, THE US SHOULD GO AHEAD AND BEGIN DISCUSSION OF THE CONTENTS OF THE TREATY IN CONGRESS. LET THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT BE THE ONES TO QUAKE IN FEAR.
Indeed, Dr. Strangelove portrays how it's going to be: a nuclear war started by maniacs. And the only maniac I see on the horizon with soon-to-be-acquired nuclear capability is our friend in Tehran. Should we just stand around and watch him go nuclear? Think the bombs of these fanatics are aimed only at Israel?? Just ask the Saudis.
The world stood idle when the big bear threatened Hungary 1956, Czechoslovakia 1968, then China 1989. But the USSR and China are at least a fig-leaf for cowardice: they were great powers. Not defending pro-democracy in Iran is simply unforgivable.
To those comparing Israel and Iran. Israel is said to have nuclear weapons. It uses its policy of ambiguity as a defensive measure and might use Nukes as a defensive last resort. Iran is lead, tyrannically, by leaders who have explicitly, repeatedly and unambiguously declared their unwavering intention to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. Israel does not hesitate to use force, but (regardless of how you interpret it) for defensive (albeit occasionally preemptive and punitive) purposes. Your comparison is like saying: One guy on my street owns a hand-gun, because his lifestyle takes him into bad neighborhoods. Because he has a gun, the guys in the mental ward down the block with psychotic episodes also have the right to bear one.
"Time for Israelis to hand the West Bank over to the UN and go back to Israel, or stay and help build a free Palestine" Well said. Thank you for your post.
israel has never fought a war for expansion...maybe for survival, but never for expansion. get your facts rights linwaithe...me thinks thou dost lyeth frequently. I wonder why you hate israel so much. can you tell me, do you believe israel has a historical connection to the land? do you think if the arabs had negotiated in good faith back in 1947, or anytime after, without violence, that they would have been met with a friendly israel willing to live side by side in peace? I am curious why you only see one side to this messy conflict...you do realize there are always 2 sides...right?
Iran doesn't need enrichment plants then. Besides, it never needed nuclear energy before, it uses oil and coal for all its energy needs,it never cared about environment or any of its citizens, and the proportion of enrichment devices over energy is of 1 to 0. Producing nuclear energy from nukes? That's original!
Who needs these Harvard experts and their simulaitions. My old antie Khaya could have told you the same. Only a fool could look a the geopolitical landscape and come to a different conclusion. China will not allow any additional sanctions on Iran because it has long term oil contracts with Iran. Russia's economy is a basket case and the Iranian military and nuclear plant contracts are worth gold to them. How about some common sense ?
apart from Netanyahu who would go to war with Iran. Once Israelis get their heads around that, then they can get used to the idea that their time as regional superpower is coming to an end. You can't complain you have had a good run. Israel will no longer be able to go on wars of expansion, and before you blame Barack Hussein Obama, President George W Bush refused to attack Iran as well. Dr Strangelonve explains the way it is going to be. It would be helpful if Channel 10 or Channel 2 would show it.
Iran's fanatical leaders and their end time theology is driving their Nuclear agenda. Iran's president believes it's his destiny to provoke war with the USA and with Israel. Advice to the world. Don't mess with Israel! Especially the God of Israel!
5 calls upon Israel urgently to place its nuclear facilities under IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] safeguards Israel still hasn't complied.
Saddam was almost an illeterate who became an Iraqi dictator who then brought shame and destruction to Iraq and Arabs. He served the interest of the West for sometimes, but was eliminated when he was not needed. To finish him, the West invented the myth of WMD as an execuse to invade Iraq as a prelude to reshape the Middle East to the view of the West. Things turned differently due to Al Qaeda effect. Now Israel and the west extreme right want to repeat the scheme with Iran. 'Iran had mastered the Bomb' says the slogan. Let's go and bomb Iran demands Israel.
there was never any doubt that obama would let iran go nuclear. those who thought otherwise let themselves be fooled. yet the mystery of the beast of kandahar still remains. what israel will ultimately do is not known either. the u.s. can pick up and leave and hope for the best. israel has no such options.
That game scenario all sounds pretty much what anyone would expect who's not blinkered by dogma. So in that scenario, Israel needs to get on with making peace with the Pals, because Iran's not going to nuke an Israel at peace with its neighbours. Time for Israelis to hand the West Bank over to the UN and go back to Israel, or stay and help build a free Palestine.
I personally don't like to see nukes in the ME or anywhere else in the world for that matter. But I I am sick of the double standards here. If Israel has them, why should't Iran? Most of the P5 or P6 that are meeting to prevent Iran from getting nukes have nukes themselves. This is the ultimate of hypocrisy.
"Marc, Iran does not *need* nuclear energy--it is sitting atop huge fields of natural gas." which wont last forever, and is better for Iran to sell than to burn for power generation. your argument is false.
Why do "experts" always tell people who can read and write and have an interest in such things what is common knowledge. That includes the profile of Burns who mirrors todays US State department.
"Games are not reality" Simulations are not reality. But games are very definitely reality. Oneupsmanship is a game with which all Talkback respondents are intimately familiar. War, too, is a game, a variation of oneupsmanship, between players each of whom have destructive forces at their disposal. You can win temporary victories in oneupsmanship; but everyone who plays the game of War is a loser.
And who are you, Paul Freedman, to pass judgment that Iran does not need nuclear energy? Best leave that judgment to the Iranians. The fact that the USA doesnt like it has nothing to do with Iranian needs. More to do with the USA's "special interests" in Asia.
If Israel wants to attack Iran, it will, and it won't cause a serious problem with US relations. To the contrary, the US will breathe easier if Israel does it, not to mention most of the rest of the world, including particularly the Arab world. Of course the Goldstones of the world will scream "war crime!" but we don't need game simulations to tell us that.
Iranian religious leaders would prefer to remove all nukes from the ME and have stopped the making of nukes but for security reasons have let their development of the ability to make go ahead. Iran can now build a nuke but would need a few months to refine uranium to higher grade and put it together. Iran will like to wait 5 to 10yrs to make nukes so they could use plutonium from reactors but will use uranium now if pushed.
I'm not convenced that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon. However, what you are saying Israel is the only country in the Middle East deserve to have nukes? in my openion no country should have nuclear weapon period specially Israel and the USA.
Experts say: Iran has clear path to nuclear weapons U.S. will not attack Iran U.S. Israel relations will deteriorate. Israel wilI not attack Iran either. I could have told you all of these four years ago, and I am no expert. So what else is new?
Dude - it is not really that complicated. Nobody cares who is the good guy or the bad guy. If Iran develops nukes, everybody in the Middle East will develop nukes. Eventually one will go off and people like you will be crying that it could have been prevented. In a Nuke war, Israel will probably kill 100 Million people. If that is what you want, then support Iran's genocidal ambition to obtain nukes. There can only be one outcome.
the premise that Iran DOES actually want Nuclear Weapons..
Marc, Iran does not *need* nuclear energy--it is sitting atop huge fields of natural gas. It is in continuing violation of the transparency and notification requirements of the NPT. That said, this is not a legal but a political matter which is why the UN and the United States are permitting Iran de facto to attempt a path to nuclear weapons if it makes that decision. Iran's violations of the non-proliferation protocols will be ignored. Israel will have to decide whether to mount a conventional attack, a non-conventional nuclear attack preemptively, or do nothing. It can also weigh its situation a new as regards negotiating with Iranian proxies such as Hamas, but has already made the decision, admitted or not, never to go back and attempt reoccupation/annexation of the West Bank and Gaza, so its options are limited. One thing: being realistic about relative weakness vis a vis a potential foe is being realistic, not some higher moral calling.
2000? Or does that label get switched to a new group each time their prediction turns out to be wrong? As for the 'simulation', these sorts of things are very succeptable to what the person running it sets up as initial conditions. Set up one where Iran is making a serious effort to get nukes and, not surprisingly, Iran will get nukes unless pretty drastic action is taken. Set up one where Iran is not, and a different result is produced. The thing is, this experiment only 'proves' that Prof. Graham Allison believes that Iran is determined to get nukes, and that Israel will have to stop them itself. Given that that belief is mostly the result of his biases, and not evidence, it should be classed a non-story.
.. the premise is that Iran IS actually seeking Nuclear Weapons.
Nope, Because simply. If your not a Western Ally, your not allowed. Doesn't matter if your country is going down the drain and people are starving. The only way your allowed "anything" is by getting down on your knees and begging the US o A for it. Iran is part of the non-proliferation treaty and is not breaking any laws in it's attempt to acquire nuclear energy. You can believe that they are the scum of the earth, but really let's look at the facts. The US, NATO and Israel are involved in either wars of agression or occupation and Iran is NOT. They finance dissident groups just like the US. Israel is essentially a proxy force for the US in the middle east. Your not on the good guys team sir. Who really are the bad guys here?