ANALYSIS / PR success of Gaza flotilla could be a trap for Hamas
The Palestinian Authority and Egypt watch as the ripples from the 'freedom flotilla' could dissipate into a minor PR success for the Gaza leadership and prove to be a trap.
By Zvi Bar'el Tags: Hamas Gaza Palestinian Authority Gaza flotillaThe success of the "freedom flotilla" has created a few ripples. Many more goods will be entering Gaza, coriander and pasta will cease to be symbolic and even cement and iron will reach building sites waiting for years for a fresh start. Hamas has achieved a new international status, and the Palestinian Authority has had to praise the flotilla and demand the full cessation of the blockade. Turkey has revealed itself to be the Palestinians' new friend and Israel has found itself pushed into a corner.
It isn't the idea of armed resistance, the muqwama, the Qassam rockets or the terror attacks that brought Hamas these achievements, but the marketing of the humanitarian crisis. From now on every rocket launched from Gaza into Israel will only erode this success. Like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas is aware of the trap. Unless there is a political achievement to be used as leverage for influence and control, the success becomes temporary and ultimately forgotten.
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PA President Mahmoud Abbas. |
| Photo by: Reuters |
After it was announced the blockade would be eased, Hamas stated: "We think these steps to lift the siege on land are merely throwing sand in the eyes of the world."
Hamas is demanding the full lifting of the blockade and especially the opening of the Rafah crossing point between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. Egypt is in no hurry.
"Opening the Rafah crossing point in full will be done only after the occupation of the Gaza Strip has ended," declared Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif.
Opening Rafah to all goods and people would be chalked up as another Hamas achievement, one Egypt is not prepared to grant - not until Hamas and Fatah sign the Egyptian reconciliation document.
Signature needed
Hamas has been dragging its feet for more than half a year since Egypt handed it the comprehensive document, which, inter alia, includes arrangements for holding elections; the expansion of the Palestine Liberation Organization so Hamas will have significant standing; the building of joint military bodies; and a system of compensation for everyone who was harmed in the Hamas takeover of Gaza in 2007.
The most difficult provision for Hamas to digest is the necessity of adopting agreements the PLO signed and agreements it reached both with Israel and in the context of the Arab initiative. Agreeing to this means recognition of Israel, even if that's not stated explicitly.
This is the dilemma Hamas faces. Without signing the agreement it will continue to control Gaza the way it has for the past three years - with no orderly budget, with no recognition and, above all, without a chance of trying to expand its influence and control to the West Bank.
Thus, from a situation in which it won a sweeping victory in the 2006 elections, which could have enabled it to control both parts of Palestine, it has had to make do with managing the crisis in Gaza. Without a return to the important political race in the West Bank, it can claim only a humanitarian success, but not a political or diplomatic achievement.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is intimately acquainted with the trap Hamas is in and therefore he, too, is in no hurry. Last month he decided to hold elections for the Palestinian parliament on July 17 - and then announced their postponement to an unknown date. Was this a decision or a "recommendation" from Israel and the United States? Both countries worry they could again face a government in which Hamas is an important, if not dominant, element.
We will know the truth only when Abbas or his successors publish the 70-volume chronicles of his term in office in which he daily notes the details of his conversations and musings. Abbas, in an interview to the Palestinian newspaper Al-Ayyam, said he has "reached the age at which he can no longer continue to serve in his position" and "very much misses quality time with his family and especially with his grandchildren,." He is not eager to end his tenure, but wants to avoid a war of succession, which is liable to crush Fatah and paint Hamas as the only orderly alternative.
Won't mention Fayyad
When asked who his successor will be, he refrains from even mentioning the name of Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. Abbas has said: "He is doing excellent work." Abbas admits he is not watching the World Cup matches, he prefers religious television and he reads religious philosophy. But, at 75, he's very good at arm wrestling. While he continues to pay $13 million a month for the power station in Gaza, he is planning projects worth $400,000 million to rehabilitate the Gaza Strip and through the good offices of Salam Fayyad, he is running the boycott of Israeli goods, which he believes is likely to double Palestinian production in the local market and create some 100,00 jobs for Palestinians. Together with the Egyptians, he is maintaining the freeze on the market in Gaza.
Last week Arab League Secretary General Amr Mussa visited Gaza and heard suggestions from Hamas as to how to continue the reconciliation process. The disagreement between the sides depends on a seemingly procedural issue: Will Hamas' reservations concerning the Egyptian document be included in the reconciliation document, as it is demanding, or will they be dealt with after the document is signed, as Abbas and the Egyptians are demanding? The compromise apparently emerging is that an additional agreement between Hamas and Fatah will be formulated in which its reservations will be listed, and that agreement together with the Egyptian document will be the source of authority for implementing the reconciliation. Despite the tough rhetoric between the sides this compromise could lead to a breakthrough.
If achieving Palestinian reconciliation is a challenge, its implementation will present an especially explosive challenge for Israel and the United States, as well as for the PLO and the PA. Israel will have to decide whether it will repeat the mistake it made in 2006 and boycott the Palestinian unity government or adopt the American policy, which does not spurn dialogue with Lebanon even though Hezbollah is a senior partner in the government.
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Hamas are an islamist organisation, Fatah a nationalist organisation. They will never be able to co-exist...Hamas views Fatah as infidels. Same as Muslim Brotherhood and Egyptian Govt.
1. the Israeli government's policy can only be explained as an attempt to internationalize Gaza or make Egypt responsible for it. Hamas suits them in this aim. So the Israeli government does not mind if their acts help Hamas. 2. The Israeli government has no plan, Abbas could sell to his people, no matter how much he is bribed. Actually as long as Abbas is bribed, he has no incentive to sell a plan to his people. 3. The Israeli army may be able to protect their soldiers in case of war, however they cannot protect their population. 4. Israel's technological advantage is gone, they have neither soft, nor hard power.
Very good and objective analysis. The peace might approach, with the unwilling humanitarian appraoch, unless other organizations come up, as Hamas did when the PLO became all nice. Let's hope their hunger for power will make them become like Russia: a dictature obliged to respect the Human Rights it warranted Reagan.
B) Egypt has a peace agreement and the 2005 agreement to uphold. Should it jeopardize peace with Israel? C) Hamas are ONLY a symptom of Israeli belligerence since 14th May 1948 when it inherited the preemptive war launched under Plan Dalet in the moths preceding declaration.
Nothing has changed since the Arabs announced their NO PEACE NO NEGOTIATIONS NO RECOGNITION OF ISRAEL in 1967 The uberleft has regarded them as victims evewr since.
And we can trust that Hamas will throw another rock into the pond too, but only if unarmed jewish children are swimming there.
How can a peace agreement be made with two main obstacles 1) Hamas does not except Israel's "right to exist"; 2) The issue of that popular myth referred to as "the right of return" for the Palestinians. With issue number one we all know the end game (the goal) of Hamas is to destroy Israel; while Israel's goal is to live in peace with its neighbors. Frankly people simply don't want discuss these facts which are vastly different goals. Secondly, while the Palestinians can return to their new state...where they should go...Hamas wants and the "Arab street" agrees they should go to Israel, meaning the demographic suicide of Israel as a Jewish state. Israel can't agree, nor should Israel have to agree to such a ridiculous demand. Since there is no basis in international law (certainly no country can be forced to accept a hostile population who have a stated goal to destroy Israel the very country they want to return to), pressure needs to cease on Israel so the peace process can move forward.
Israels main goal is to continue settlement expansion. Maybe you didn't notice the exchange between Bibi and Obama on this issue. By favoring expansion over peace, Israel continues to avoid any possibility of making peace. Let me know if this is too complex. I will use smaller words. Israel has stolen much of the land from innocent Palestinians and continues to do so. Haaretz reports all this. Don't you read it?
Since 1967 Israel has gotten smaller, vastly smaller, the return of the Sinai to Egypt reduced Israels size by what 50%? They left Gaza strip 5 years ago leaving it for the Pals, who used it a s base to attack Israel. Israel has shrunk NOT expanded in the last 40 years. learn to read a map.
Since 1967 Israel has gotten smaller, vastly smaller, the return of the Sinai to Egypt reduced Israels size by what 50%? They left Gaza strip 5 years ago leaving it for the Pals, who used it a s base to attack Israel. Israel has shrunk NOT expanded in the last 40 years. learn to read a map.
The were expelled when the "State of Israel" was created.
> >ISRAEL AND JERUSALEM FACTS >1. ISRAEL BECAME A STATE IN 1312 B.C., TWO MILLENNIA BEFORE ISLAM; > >2. ARAB REFUGEES FROM ISRAEL BEGAN CALLING THEMSELVES "PALESTINIANS" IN 1967, TWO DECADES AFTER (MODERN) ISRAELI STATEHOOD; > >3. AFTER CONQUERING THE LAND IN 1272 B.C., JEWS RULED IT FOR ATHOUS AND YEARS AND MAINTAINED A CONTINUOUS PRESENCE THERE FOR 3,300 YEARS; > >4. THE ONLY ARAB RULE FOLLOWING CONQUEST IN 633 B.C. LASTED JUST 22 YEARS; > >5. FOR OVER 3,300 YEARS, JERUSALEM WAS THE JEWISH CAPITAL. IT WAS NEVER THE CAPITAL OF ANY ARAB OR MUSLIM ENTITY. EVEN UNDER JORDANIAN RULE, (EAST) JERUSALEM WAS NOT MADE THE CAPITAL, AND NO ARAB LEADER CAME TO VISIT IT; > >6. JERUSALEM IS MENTIONED OVER 700 TIMES IN THE BIBLE, BUT NOT ONCE IS IT MENTIONED IN THE QUR'AN; > >7. KING DAVID FOUNDED JERUSALEM; MOHAMMED NEVER SET FOOT IN IT; > >8. JEWS PRAY FACING JERUSALEM; MUSLIMS FACE MECCA. IF THEY ARE BETWEEN THE TWO CITIES, MUSLIMS PRAY FACING MECCA, WITH THEIR BACKS TO JERUSALEM; > >9. IN 1948, ARAB LEADERS URGED THEIR PEOPLE TO LEAVE, PROMISING TO CLEANSE THE LAND OF JEWISH PRESENCE. 68% OF THEM FLED WITHOUT EVER SETTING EYES ON AN ISRAELI SOLDIER; > >10. VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE JEWISH POPULATION OF MUSLIM COUNTRIES HAD TO FLEE AS THE RESULT OF VIOLENCE AND POGROMS; > >11. SOME 630,000 ARABS LEFT ISRAEL IN 1948, WHILE CLOSE TO A MILLION JEWS WERE FORCED TO LEAVE THE MUSLIM COUNTRIES; > >12. IN SPITE OF THE VAST TERRITORIES AT THEIR DISPOSAL, ARAB REFUGESS WERE DELIBERATELY PREVENTED FROM ASSIMILATING INTO THEIR HOST COUNTRIES. OF 100 MILLION REFUGEES FOLLOWING WORLD WAR 2, THEY ARE THE >ONLY GROUP TO HAVE NEVER INTEGRATED WITH THEIR CORELIGIONISTS. MOST OF THE JEWISH REFUGEES FROM EUROPE AND ARAB LANDS WERE SETTL ED IN ISRAEL, A COUNTRY NO LARGER THAN NEW JERSEY; > >13. THERE ARE 22 MUSLIM COUNTRIES, NOT COUNTING PALESTINE. THERE IS ONLY ONE JEWISH STATE. ARABS STARTED ALL FIVE WARS AGAINST ISRAEL, AND LOST EVERY ONE OF THEM; > >14. FATAH AND HAMAS CONSTITUTIONS STILL CALL FOR THE DESTRUCTION OF ISRAEL. ISRAEL CEDED MOST OF THE WEST BANK AND ALL OF GAZA TO THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, AND EVEN PROVIDED IT WITH ARMS; > >15. DURING THE JORDANIAN OCCUPATION, JEWISH HOLY SITES WERE VANDALIZED AND WERE OFF LIMITS TO JEWS. UNDER ISRAELI RULE, ALL MUSLIM AND CHRISTIAN HOLY SITES ARE ACCESSIBLE TO ALL FAITHS; > >16. OUT OF 175 UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTIONS UP TO 1990, 97 WERE AGAINST ISRAEL; OUT OF 690 GENERAL ASSEMBLY RESOLUTIONS, 429 WERE AGAINST ISRAEL; > >17. THE U.N. WAS SILENT WHEN THE JORDANIANS DESTROYED 58 SYNAGOGUES IN THE OLD CITY OF JERUSALEM. IT REMAINED SILENT WHILE JORDAN SYSTEMATICALLY DESECRATED THE ANCIENT JEWISH CEMETERY ON THE MOUNT OF >OLIVES, A D IT REMAINED SILENT WHEN JORDAN ENFORCED APARTHEID LAWS PREVENTING JEWS FROM ACCESSING THE TEMPLE MOUNT AND WESTERN WALL.
Yeah, the ripples will die down, but thankfully, we can all count on Israel to chuck another rock into the pond before too long.
obviously that does not make any waves for self proclaimed supporters of Hamas.
Mubarak is 82 and Abbas 75. Neither will live forever and the situation in Gaza will change in their absence. How it will change is open to interpretation. One thing there is likely certain. Hamas will never recognize Israel's "right" to exist without agreement on the Palestinian "Right of Return." Hamas, if anything, has proven its resiliency. What action will Israel take? I would guess none as Israel will only accept peace on its terms.
Hey, I was unaware of this. Since when did the Hamas chart change from "we will never recognize Israel" to "we will never recognize Israel without a right of return"? Anyway, the flow of 4 more million Islamist and nationalist Arabs in our country already conntaminated with anti-Zionists will definitely make Israel the 24th Islamist State. No way we'll do that. And when will the Jews be compensated for their exile from North Africa in the 50s and 60s?
Israel will only accept a peace that does not allow it to maintain defensible borders and does not threaten its continuance as a Jewish state, as "Right of Return" would by altering the demographic map. Hamas and much of the Arab/Muslim world would be willing to wait for Israel to become another Muslim nation through natural Muslim growth.
Hamas has to be destroyed or agree to step up to peace table but not easy with PA unwilling to share power or money, also Hamas is pushing Refugee issue while PA focused on land/control in W. Bank and E. Jerusalem.
With enough proof that Hamas isn't the great helper it is but instead is at the origin of the crisis, is corrupted and ignores as many Human Rights as ither Arab states, and by making Palestinians richer to make them have think of money instead, we can destroy Hamas. Mind me, I'd go for that solution than live with Hamas for the next who-knows-how-many years.