Abu Mazen quietly plans a revolution: He wants to be president, too

At the center of a drama shaping up in the halls of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC - the parliament), is a section of text known as "the new paragraph 56." It states: "If the position of president becomes available as a result of one of the cases cited in section 54, the vice president will fulfill the tasks of the president of the Palestinian Authority for the remainder of the president's elected term and until general elections at a legally mandated time."

Last week, the PLC began discussions of what is referred to as "the basic law" - a series of changes in the temporary constitution proposed by the advisers of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen). Under the shadow of the disengagement, which is attracting most of the public's attention, Abu Mazen's advisers are submitting to the council's constitution committee a series of clauses they want to include. This would be a far-reaching change for the Palestinian system of governance that leaves the prime minister's post and the head of the legislative council devoid of authority and transfers the center of power to the president. In this way, Abu Mazen can kill two birds with one stone: He will weaken the power of the prime minister, Ahmed Qureia (Abu Ala), and reduce the power of Hamas, even if it is successful in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Yasser Arafat never had a need for legislation. He ran the Palestine Liberation Organization, Fatah and the PA by virtue of his charisma and thanks to the history of the Palestinian national movement. The laws and the institutions of the PA, including the legislative council, were merely decoration. Abu Mazen, who does not enjoy the same status, is clinging tightly to the power of "the institutions" and "the laws."

Uprooting Hamas

As part of the changes, Abu Mazen is seeking to create a presidential system, similar to that of Egypt, with a very limited system of checks and balances. The parliament, according to the proposed plan, would be no more than a rubber stamp for the PA president. Hamas and other organizations could, perhaps, enter such a parliament in the elections to be held early next year, but their influence would be undermined.

Upon the death of Arafat last November, despite the absence of a political tradition, senior Fatah officials said they implemented the temporary legislative clauses that Arafat had at one time formulated. So the section in the old constitution stipulating that "if the office of president becomes vacant as a result of the causes designated in the law, the chairman of the legislative council will assume the powers and obligations of the president temporarily, for a period not exceeding 60 days until general elections are held." In the presidential elections held on January 9, Abu Mazen was the main candidate, and he won by a large majority.

During the many years he headed the PLO and Fatah, Arafat refrained from appointing a deputy. Abu Mazen, on the other hand, several weeks ago announced his intention of appointing a vice president. He did not name names, but the most prominent name being tossed about was that of Farouk Kaddoumi, the head of the Palestine Liberation Organization's political department, who has long challenged Abu Mazen's authority. Others have also been mentioned, including the secretary general of the president's office, Al-Tayeb Abd al-Rahim, who has faithfully served Abu Mazen since Arafat's death, as well as Mohammed Dahlan, the minister of civilian affairs.

Abu Mazen is not rushing to show his cards and prefers to first pass the changes in parliament - it is highly doubtful that he would be able to pass them once the identity of the deputy he has chosen becomes known.

The legislative committee is to submit its first draft for a first reading in the coming weeks, and the prevailing view is that the entire list of legislative changes to the constitution will be approved by parliament in the coming months.

One important change Abu Mazen is seeking is to introduce a clause stipulating that the president and his deputy should be chosen in direct general elections for a four-year term. But he wants to make a one-time exception and appoint his own deputy at this time, before the elections. A description of the position states that, "the vice president will assist the president in his tasks and the president many delegate his authority to the vice president so that he may act on his behalf and fulfill his legal obligations." An impressive job description for someone who will be appointed directly by the president, not chosen in elections; especially in view of the fact that he is also the official acting president, a position which in the original constitution was reserved for the speaker of the parliament.

To apply the legal changes to the appointed vice president, a special clause was inserted whereby "the period between the time the changes in the constitution take effect and the next presidential elections will be in accordance with the revised constitution."

According to the proposed version, the president may serve for two four-year terms.

Since entering office, Abu Mazen has been engaged in an unending fight with Prime Minister Qureia. The two have undermined each other and their associates have waged fierce battles, using denigration and disinformation. The battles reflect mutual suspiciousness and a fear of crystallizing alliances between the centers of power in the fragile political system. Over the last few weeks, the conflicts have abated somewhat, but now it seems that Abu Mazen is planning to do everything he can to weaken the office of the prime minister and move the PA toward a presidential regime.

This is being done in several ways. Firstly, the proposed legislation states that the cabinet "will be asked to report to the parliament and to the president" - a clause that, according to legal sources in the PA, is intended to pave the way for the president to depose the prime minister, an authority which until now was reserved only for the parliament. In addition, the changes stipulate that a long list of appointments and powers will be assigned to the president, who already holds a key position as "the head of the Palestinian forces." The president may also enact regulations and amendments as he sees fit, approve the appointment of officers, award military and civilian honors and in practice decide on a series of key appointments such as the prosecutor general and governor of the Palestinian mint.

Another lever he can apply to the cabinet, much like in Israel, is that if the cabinet does not succeed in approving the PA budget within three months of the conclusion of the civil year, its term will end. In that event, the president of the PA will appoint a prime minister he deems appropriate and charge him with forming a new government.

Another power reserved for the president is the declaration of a 30-day state of emergency and, if necessary, even for a longer period (which would require parliament's approval). The events that would justify declaring a state of emergency are, among others: war, military invasion and "an armed uprising." PA officials said this wording was inserted specifically because of the possibility of a confrontation between the PA and the armed organizations, with Hamas at the top of that list.

A referendum

The proposed constitutional revisions also cover civil issues that were not touched upon in the old constitution. So, for example, the new laws stipulate that the security apparatuses can make arrests only in cases where there is clear evidence against the detained or where there "is an immediate need to prevent a crime." The new law also says that the statute of limitations will not apply to torture conducted during the course of an interrogation. This is a loaded clause given the fact that in recent years, there have been dozens of deaths documented of detainees in prisons run by the Palestinian security apparatuses.

A referendum is also proposed in the changes sought by Abu Mazen's aides. The decision to hold a referendum will be in the hands of the president in the event "agreements are signed that relate to the supreme national interests of the homeland." The proposed changes do not stipulate that it is incumbent on the president to hold a referendum; rather they state that if he so wishes, he may hold a referendum on diplomatic and political agreements by virtue of a law that is to be passed in parliament. In no place is it stated that the president must act according to the results of the referendum, but Abu Mazen himself has said publicly that he would hold a referendum on any agreement reached with Israel and will act in accordance with the results.

An overview of the changes was presented last week to the PLC and discussions are underway in the council's legislative committee prior to a vote on them in three readings. The process will take place over the next few weeks and, at the same time, the PLC is also expected to approve the third reading of the Palestinian election law.

There will be consultations with the various factions, led by Hamas, who have many reservations regarding both the constitution and the run-up to the elections. One of Hamas' key demands, in an effort to hem in Abu Mazen, is to open the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to all factions based on their proportional power and to entrench the PLO, and not the PA, as the primary source of authority in the future constitution. The constitution is also meant to formalize the expected changes in the Palestinian election law yet to be approved.

	Abu Mazen: Clinging tightly to the power of "the institutions" and "the laws."
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