A clearer picture of the territories

In the past six weeks, the Central Elections Committee of the Palestinian Authority has conducted a major campaign to register and update the voter registry. The campaign ended late last week, and it reveals a few interesting details about Palestinian demographics and politics.

One item that was reported matter-of-factly at a press conference held by the Central Elections Committee last Thursday notes the number of persons with Palestinian identity cards who are now abroad - approximately 180,000 (of about 1.6 million individuals with the right to vote). This revelation can help to assess the number of Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza who have left the territories in the past few years. There is no doubt that the anguish of the intifada has impelled thousands of residents of the territories to leave the country.

Those who are able to leave the territories for an extended period are usually Palestinians with foreign citizenship, university students who receive a permit to study abroad and others who have the opportunity to join relatives overseas. The Palestinian journalist Majeda al-Batash, who attempted a few weeks ago to gather data on Palestinian emigration caused by the intifada, reported that the Palestinian Authority refuses to supply the relevant data. On a visit to the town of Beit Jala, she found that many residents had left. However, it is a Christian town, which had always had a high rate of emigration, and al-Batash's conclusions should not be applied to the general population.

Since the foundation of the Palestinian Authority about 10 years ago, Israel has also lacked precise data on the demographic picture in the territories. All of the data on residents of the territories was transferred by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics to its Palestinian counterpart. The only official figure that might aid in estimating the extent of emigration from the territories is currently being provided by Jordanian authorities. They report that approximately 150,000 West Bank residents who crossed into Jordan in the past four years have not returned. Some of them remained in Jordan, while others only passed through the kingdom on their way to other countries.

The overall number of residents of the West Bank and Gaza is now about 3.5 million (based on data of the Palestinian population registry from 1997, which include East Jerusalem). And if it is true that about 5 percent have emigrated in recent years, this is most certainly a high number.

Registration and updating of the Palestinian voter rolls in the past few weeks was a significant political maneuver for the Authority. At the behest of Yasser Arafat, a Central Election Committee was appointed, with Hanna Nasser and Ali al-Jirbawi, both of Bir Zeit University, as its directors. The two men are prominent in Palestinian academic circles. They opened 16 registration centers throughout the West Bank and Gaza.

The campaign had a clear political objective. Heavy pressure is being exerted on Arafat and his minions from within and without, to implement administrative reforms, and the most appropriate response to them of all is the announcement of preparations for democratic elections. Arafat's problem was that Hamas and other opposition groups were and are still boycotting a general election along the lines specified by the Oslo accords, and they demand that elections only be held for the local authorities. Approximately 180 local authorities (municipalities, local councils and village councils) exist in the West Bank and Gaza, and Hamas estimates that it is assured a great deal of success in these elections. Arafat and his people know this, too, and have therefore avoided holding local elections until now. Arafat was willing to make do with the general elections for parliament and the presidency, which were boycotted by the opposition - thereby ensuring his victory.

The tactic now adopted by Arafat with regards to Hamas was to announce the registration and updating of the voter rolls, in order to prepare at the same time for the general elections and the elections for the local authorities. An approximate date was even set for the local elections at the end of this year. The Hamas movement faced a problem: If its people agreed to participate in updating the voter registry, they would be branded as collaborating with the Palestinian Authority, and being ready to take part in an election held in accordance with the Oslo accords. And if they boycotted the procedure, they would not be able to take part in the local elections, which is their ideal.

They opted for the first alternative. In the past six weeks, the Hamas leadership declared their support for the registration campaign, and called on their supporters to register. Hamas' call was joined by the leaderships of the other opposition groups.

Evidently, the registration has been successful. Of approximately 1.6 million individuals with the right to vote, close to 1.1 million, or 67 percent, registered at the Central Elections Committee's offices. The chairman of the committee, Hanna Nasser, said that once you take into account the 180,000 territories residents who are out of the country, then the rate of registration was even higher: 75 percent. In other words, three-quarters of Palestinians in the territories with the right to vote registered to update the voter rolls, a rate that is most certainly in line with the norms in most democratic countries.

Problems arose mainly in two registration areas: in East Jerusalem, where the Israel Police closed the registration offices, and in the northern Gaza Strip, where battles were raging. Registration in both areas was limited, and the Palestinian election committee has announced its intention to complete the work in these two areas at a future date.

The next stage should be the holding of elections for the local councils at the end of this year. The elections committee has announced that due to the prevailing conditions on the ground, it would not be possible to hold elections in all of the 180 local authorities at the same time, and they propose holding them in stages. In the first stage, elections would be held in only 36 authorities.

The announcement raised suspicions in the Hamas leadership, which feared it was another ruse of Arafat's. He will be extremely selective, and will choose only those local authorities in which his supporters are guaranteed victory. Hamas officials have therefore demanded that the elections be held in every precinct simultaneously. They also demanded that their representatives be placed on the various committees that will oversee the elections.

Negotiations will be held between the sides to settle the differences, and a solution will almost certainly be found. In the meantime, members of the Central Elections Committee have expressed skepticism about the possibility of holding the local elections at the end of this year, and there are those among the committee members who projected that they would have to be postponed until early next year.

What is made clear by the entire affair is that the arch-chaos in the disintegrating Palestinian administration did not prevent the successful execution of this campaign. The most significant accomplishment was that people came and registered at the different offices. In other words, the West Bank and Gaza public relates seriously to the possibility of elections being held.

More important is the political collaboration between all of the Palestinian factions in the registration campaign. When the Oslo process was underway, such cooperation would have been impossible, due to the struggles and arguments over the peace process. Now, when Palestinian troubles and bloodshed set new records daily - the public in the territories feels a sense of partnership. This is reflected in the well-known cooperation between the military wings of the various organizations, whose men carry out joint attacks on Israelis, and now, there is political expression of this teamwork, in the lively participation of all sides in the voter registration drive.

	A registration center in Nablus. The next stage should be elections for the local councils at the end of this year.
	Photo by: AP